Not All Rollouts Are Worth Learning: On Trajectory Valuation for Post-Training Reinforcement Learning

Outcome-driven reinforcement learning offers a scalable way to post-train vision-language-action (VLA) policies from sparse task-success feedback. In common GRPO-based VLA post-training, one rollout-level advantage is applied to every action in the trajectory. A rollout that completes several valid stages but fails later can therefore penalize the actions that produced its earlier progress. We call this trajectory-level credit aliasing. Temporal GRPO addresses this problem by constructing detectable task stages, aligning each rollout with stage-specific action intervals, and comparing only rollouts that have entered the same stage. The resulting stage advantages are applied to their corresponding intervals in a single policy update. On RoboTwin 2.0, Temporal GRPO improves task success and sample efficiency, with consistent gains across task horizons. Controlled updates on LIBERO-Long preserve shared prerequisite stages and concentrate improvement at the first stage where rollout outcomes diverge.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a central post-training paradigm for eliciting reasoning capabilities in large language models, yet uniform task sampling allocates compute without regard to differences in how tasks respond to optimization. Existing task-valuation methods mostly rely on snapshot-based signals such as current pass rate or reward, which estimate how solvable a task is under the current policy. However, tasks with similar current solvability can still differ substantially in how positively they respond to further training. We study this residual axis as task learnability: a regime-conditional measure of expected positive response to continued training under a fixed RL post-training regime. By analyzing per-task reward trajectories, we find that learnability is reproducible across independently sampled training contexts and predictive of downstream utility. To make this signal practical before training begins, we propose TrajVal, a lightweight probe-based estimator that approximates per-task learnability from a short probe run and two endpoint evaluations. TrajVal can be used either as a standalone static prior for task sampling or as a multiplicative prior for existing online schedulers. Experiments on mathematical and logical reasoning benchmarks across multiple model scales show that TrajVal improves data efficiency over uniform sampling and provides complementary gains when combined with online scheduling methods.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) offers a path to policy improvement from logged data alone, using historical returns or other measurable outcomes as world feedback. A key difficulty is improving observed behavior without extrapolating beyond what the offline data supports. We propose \emph{counterfactual transport flows}, a source-conditioned trajectory refinement framework for offline decision-making guided by world feedback. Given a low-feedback candidate trajectory, we construct local preference pairs from offline data by retrieving nearby trajectories in latent trajectory space with higher task-specific feedback, and use them as weak supervision for conservative refinement. The framework learns instance-specific refinement directions: at inference time, a refinement strength parameter controls how far the candidate trajectory is transported, enabling a trade-off between preserving the original behavior and applying stronger improvement. Experiments on D4RL benchmarks, including AntMaze and MuJoCo tasks, show that our method improves behavior from historical returns as world feedback, while providing interpretable trajectory-level refinement paths.