EnergyEminence: Source-Aware Environmental Calibration and Evaluation in a Physics-Grounded Grid Digital Twin

Large language model (LLM)-assisted energy-management tools can translate natural-language context into structured grid commands, but syntactic validity does not imply physical admissibility. This paper presents TwinGridShield, a model-independent runtime authorization layer that evaluates each proposed action in a deterministic network twin before release. The prototype checks connectivity, branch-flow, generator, and load-shedding invariants and records each decision in a hash-chained log. A controlled IEEE 14-bus study evaluates single-step switching, redispatch, and load-shedding actions using DC power flow and experimentally assigned branch ratings. In the matched-model experiment, a stochastic proposal source configured to select an unsafe action with probability p=0.84 produced 421 unsafe proposals in 500 attacked-condition trials, a realized rate of 84.2%. This value characterizes the configured surrogate and is not an empirical measurement of LLM prompt-injection susceptibility. TwinGridShield produced 0 unsafe releases in those 500 trials. Because action labeling and authorization used the same DC model, system state, branch ratings, and encoded constraints, this result verifies conformance of the implementation to its encoded authorization predicate rather than safety under model error. The principal robustness evaluation therefore introduces model mismatch. Unsafe acceptance reached 5.63% under bounded +20% and -20% per-bus load-measurement error and 30.09% when actual branch ratings were 20% below modeled ratings.

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Next-day wildfire prediction requires models whose forecasts can be evaluated alongside the assumptions and historical evidence used in their computation. Although deep learning can learn spatial patterns from remote-sensing data, predictive performance alone does not establish physical fidelity or operational trustworthiness. This study investigates three modular augmentations for next-day active-fire prediction: wind- and slope-conditioned attention biases, physics-feature retrieval-augmented output correction, and fire conditioned dual-stream gating. The attention biases expose prescribed directional preferences, while the retrieval module selects historical tiles using a nine-dimensional environmental and fire-state descriptor and applies a learned correction to a frozen model's logits. The modules are evaluated across five backbones on the Next Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, using staged ablations, directional audits, retrieval perturbations, calibration measures, and computational comparisons. The three-seed mean F1 score and area under the precision--recall curve (AUC-PR) of a SwinUNETR model with all three augmentations are 0.4216 and 0.3673. Then, a mixed ensemble (two augmented architectures and one non-augmented architecture) model achieves 0.4292 and 0.3790. Benefits vary across architectures, and retrieval-related improvements in AUC-PR do not consistently translate into higher F1. The constructed wind bias aligns closely with input wind, but its alignment with observed next-day fire displacement is much weaker, distinguishing prior inspectability from predictive physical fidelity. The study contributes a framework for exposing and evaluating selected domain-informed components within wildfire prediction models. Together, the results presented show that predictive performance, operational trustworthiness, and computational practicality need not be competing objectives.