EnergyEminence: Source-Aware Environmental Calibration and Evaluation in a Physics-Grounded Grid Digital Twin
Organizations: University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada · Kraftgene AI Inc., Toronto, ON, Canada
Abstract
Power-grid digital twins must combine data-driven prediction with physically meaningful state evolution while preserving the provenance of environmental observations. This paper presents an early-stage EnergyEminence testbed that couples an IEEE 118-bus-style graph-temporal predictor, nonlinear AC cascade simulation, and operator-dashboard-like temporal replay. In addition, we introduce a shared bounded calibration that converts wildfire-detection confidence and spatial extent into source-comparable wildfire interpretable and explainable evidence. We then evaluate it with visually diverse fire and hard-negative videos. Sixteen synthetic environmental videos are curated to generate 160 source-tracked grid scenarios, and a source-video-disjoint test yields 10 true positives, 8 false positives, 22 true negatives, and no false negatives. The errors occur in stressed, non-cascading scenarios conditioned on an unseen growing-fire source. Our diagnostic then reveals environmental shortcut learning that is obscured by scenario-level random splitting. The paper therefore contributes a data-centric and inspectable evaluation workflow for multimodal grid-resilience models, together with evidence supporting separation of environmental alerting from electrical cascade inference
Figures & tables
| Source | Legacy max. | Shared mean | Shared max. |
|---|---|---|---|
| No fire | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Night fire | 1.000 | 0.579 | 0.858 |
| Wildfire | 1.000 | 0.625 | 0.814 |
| Metric | Value | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0.800 | Precision | 0.556 |
| Recall | 1.000 | 0.714 | |
| Specificity | 0.733 | Balanced acc. | 0.867 |
Digital Twins
Digital twins are virtual models synchronized with real systems to support monitoring, prediction, simulation, and decision-making.
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