AssayRouter: Historical Utility Priors for Frozen Molecular Predictor Routing

Molecular property prediction is central to drug development and materials discovery, but experiments are costly and labeled data are scarce. Context-aware methods use auxiliary assay labels to support few-shot prediction, and recent work supervises property relations with label agreement. However, label agreement is sensitive to class marginals and does not directly capture dependence between properties. We propose CalibHyper, a chance-corrected relational hypergraph method based on the joint label distribution. CalibHyper subtracts an independence baseline from the ordered four-state label distribution and shrinks the residual according to the number of joint observations. A swap-equivariant relation head estimates these residuals, which choose the auxiliary properties for each molecule and set the sign and weight of their hyperedge messages. On thirteen datasets from five benchmarks, in both 1-shot and 10-shot settings, CalibHyper and its ablation settings achieve ROC-AUC competitive with the strongest reported results.

Machine-learning predictors of biochemical activity often exhibit large random-split-to-leave-one-target-out generalisation gaps that have been documented but not decomposed. We frame this as an evaluation-science question and use targeted protein degradation as the empirical test bed. PROTACs (proteolysis-targeting chimeras) are heterobifunctional small molecules that induce targeted protein degradation, with more than forty candidates currently in clinical trials; published predictors report AUROC of 0.85 to 0.91 under random-split cross-validation, while the leave-one-target-out (LOTO) protocol of Ribes et al. reduces performance to approximately 0.67. Random splits reward within-target interpolation, whereas LOTO measures the novel-target prediction that de-novo design depends on. We decompose this gap and identify inter-laboratory measurement variance as the dominant component, anchored by a within-target cross-laboratory cascade bounding the inter-laboratory contribution at 0.124 AUROC, well above the 0.05 contribution from binarisation-threshold choice. Across eight published architectures and ESM-2 protein language models up to 3B parameters, LOTO AUROC plateaus near 0.67, with a comparable plateau under SMILES-level deduplication; a 21-dimensional 2000-trial hyperparameter optimisation cannot break this ceiling, and the rank-1 single-seed configuration regresses by 0.161 AUROC under multi-seed validation, matching a closed-form selection-bias prediction (Bailey and Lopez de Prado, 2014). Few-shot k=5 stratified per-target retraining combined with ADMET features lifts 65-target LOTO AUROC from 0.668 to 0.7050, and post-hoc Platt scaling recovers raw output to within the 0.05 well-calibrated threshold. We release PROTAC-Bench (10,748 measurements, 173 targets, 65 LOTO folds), the variance-decomposition framework, the per-target calibration protocol, and the evaluation code.

The emergence of foundation models for molecular property prediction requires a high degree of AI data readiness, including reliable metadata annotation. However, both public repositories and industrial screening databases suffer from missing, inconsistent, or conflated assay annotations. In this work, we quantify the extent of missing annotations in PubChem for the BioAssay Ontology (BAO) assay format and physical detection method fields and investigate whether open-source and proprietary large language models (LLMs) can reliably predict and audit metadata annotations directly from the assay text. In our assessment, we found that the annotation coverage across PubChem's $\sim$2 million bioassays is critically sparse, 36% lacking an assay format, 89% a BioAssay type, and >99.9% any BAO-mapped assay format or detection technology term. This motivates the need for automated test-metadata curation. Using evaluation sets derived from PubChem and ChEMBL, we assess the agreement of seven open-source and proprietary LLMs with existing silver labels. Recall is at least 0.96 for biochemical and cell-based assay formats, with a similar pattern for detection technology, although disagreements increase on under-represented classes. Manual inspection shows that many of these disagreements trace back to inconsistencies between silver sources rather than to LLM error. Moreover, in a qualitative study with a senior industrial curator, LLM-generated evidence prompted the expert to revise some of their own labels, showing LLMs can flag potentially mislabeled assays. Across the study, performance differences between proprietary and open-source models were small. Together, these results suggest LLMs can support the large-scale annotation and auditing of assay metadata, though per-class reliability estimates and targeted human review remain necessary before such labels enter downstream ML pipelines.