Alleviating Hallucination in Reasoning Tasks with Training-Free Uncertainty-Guided Steering

We propose a lightweight and single-pass uncertainty quantification method for detecting hallucinations in Large Language Models. The method uses attention matrices to estimate uncertainty without requiring repeated sampling or external models. Specifically, we measure the Kullback-Leibler divergence between each attention head's distribution and a uniform reference distribution, and use these features in a logistic regression probe. Across multiple datasets, task types, and model families, attention divergence is highly predictive of answer correctness and performs competitively with existing uncertainty estimation methods. We find that this signal is concentrated in middle layers and on factual tokens such as named entities and numbers, suggesting that attention dynamics provides an efficient and interpretable white-box signal of model uncertainty.

Large language models (LLMs) are prone to hallucinations, i.e., statements unsupported by the input or training data, hindering reliable deployment. In parallel, numerous uncertainty estimation (UE) methods have been proposed to quantify model confidence and are often implicitly treated as proxies for model failure. However, the relationship between uncertainty and hallucinations remains insufficiently characterized. We present a systematic empirical study of the association between uncertainty estimators and hallucinations in LLMs. Rather than assuming this association, we evaluate directly when and to what extent it holds. We consider a diverse set of uncertainty estimators, including information-theoretic, sampling-based, and reflexive estimators, and examine their behavior across hallucination settings. Our experiments cover both intrinsic hallucinations (violations of input faithfulness) and extrinsic hallucinations (unsupported claims relative to training data), using four complementary benchmarks, including RAGTruth and HalluLens. We find that the association is highly variable and often weak, depending on the hallucination type and the LLM under evaluation. These results challenge the use of uncertainty as a direct signal of hallucination and clarify when it provides actionable information.

We introduce CAROL (Chain-based Adaptive Reconfiguration Over Lattices), a probabilistic framework for test-time hallucination reduction in large language models. Rather than relying on token-level uncertainty, CAROL defines a semantic uncertainty measure based on the consistency between generated responses and a trusted context, inducing a string-submodular objective over a lattice of textual sequences. This formulation enables hallucination mitigation to be cast as a Markov chain accept-reject process with provable convergence and near-optimality guarantees, allowing the model to iteratively refine outputs toward semantic consistency. By operating at the level of meaning, CAROL unifies hallucination detection and mitigation within a single framework. Empirical results on question answering and multi-agent reasoning benchmarks show that CAROL significantly reduces hallucinations and improves reliability and interpretability compared to likelihood-based and retrieval-augmented baselines, while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.