Rethinking Probability-Based Reinforcement Learning From Posterior Concentration

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become standard for improving LLM reasoning. However, existing PPO-style trust-region mechanisms remain position-agnostic by enforcing uniform thresholds across all tokens independently. This pointwise treatment conflicts with autoregressive generation in two critical ways. First, uniform thresholds ignore autoregressive asymmetry. Early-stage deviations produce compounding sequence-level drift, causing static thresholds to under-regulate early divergence and excessively constrain late-stage exploration. Second, evaluating token-level divergence in isolation overlooks cumulative prefix drift, granting the same divergence allowance regardless of how far the conditioning history has already deviated from the rollout policy. To address this limitation, we propose CPPO (Cumulative Prefix-divergence Policy Optimization), a token-level masking rule that aligns updates with a finite-horizon policy-improvement bound via two coupled mechanisms. First, a position-weighted threshold imposes stricter limits at early positions whose effects persist longer, relaxing constraints for late-stage tokens. Second, a cumulative prefix budget tracks historical deviations, dynamically restricting further token-level deviation to prevent compounding errors along the prefix. Empirically, CPPO enhances training stability and significantly improves reasoning accuracy across various model scales.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) optimizes LLMs using sparse verifiable final-answer rewards. This sparse anchor reliably verifies whether a trajectory succeeds but provides no direct feedback on the reasoning path that produced it. Before success, prerequisite progress on hard problems receives no reward signal; after success, outcome rewards cannot distinguish well-organized correct trajectories from redundant or locally flawed ones. We introduce SCOPE-RL (Scaffolded Chain Optimization with Process Efficiency), a two-stage framework that densifies this anchor while retaining the GRPO update: Adaptive Scaffolded RL adds prefix-decomposed verifiable rewards on answer-hidden sub-question chains before success, and Quality-Aware Process RL applies correctness-gated process-shape rewards to refine correct trajectories after success. An expert-validated Step-Quality Evaluation Protocol evaluates useful-step density, error localization, and token efficiency beyond final-answer accuracy. On Qwen3-8B-Instruct trained on DAPO-Math and Big-Math, SCOPE-RL improves average accuracy by up to 11.2 pp and reduces reasoning tokens by up to 27.1% over outcome-only GRPO; the gains hold under GSPO and on Qwen3-0.6B-Instruct, indicating that reward-signal densification is complementary to policy-update-level RLVR advances. Code and data are available at https://github.com/tokencraft-lab/SCOPE-RL.

Recent approaches to reinforcement learning (RL) post-training for large language models increasingly remove the critic to reduce training instability and memory overhead. Even where a critic is trained, it is discarded once training ends, although it has learned to predict outcomes. We revisit this trend and show that a pretrained critic's ability to predict future outcomes can make it a valuable asset for efficient long-horizon reasoning. First, we find that instability in critic-based RL for long chain-of-thought reasoning is largely an optimization artifact: keeping policy updates small and low in variance restores stable convergence. Second, a well-pretrained critic estimates the posterior probability of eventual success from later trajectory states and unfinished prefixes. Its predictions provide outcome-derived, dense, per-prefix learning signals that, during policy optimization, require neither completed rollouts, step-level annotations, nor external reward labels. Building on this insight, we introduce Reward-Free Policy Optimization (RFPO), which repurposes a single calibrated, frozen critic as a rollout-level reward, a value baseline for generalized advantage estimation, and a success forecaster for unfinished prefixes. We further show that binarizing the debiased score stops the policy from exploiting the critic's length bias. Binarized, RFPO matches supervised PPO without a single label in the training loop, while cutting compute and memory overhead. This makes RFPO well suited to long-horizon reasoning tasks, where outcomes arrive late and generation dominates cost: because rollouts can be rewarded before they finish, training no longer has to pay for waiting on every trajectory to complete. Our findings challenge the prevailing critic-free paradigm and establish critic-based, reward-free optimization as a scalable and computationally efficient path for LLM post-training.