MECHVAR: Variance-Guided Mechanism Discrimination for Autonomous Machine Learning Experiment Selection

Auto Research uses language-model agents to propose, implement, and evaluate machine-learning changes in a closed loop, but is usually judged by its terminal pipeline. A terminal score cannot reveal which technical decision produced a gain or distinguish a reusable discovery from a change adapted to development feedback. We introduce intervention-centered Auto Research, which validates research decisions rather than only final artifacts and makes their reliability measurable. Feature, Model, Representation, and Data axes are searched independently with inner five-fold feedback. Each axis winner is frozen before an outer-holdout matrix compares all alternatives on evidence the loop never sees. Across 701 agent-executed attempts spanning ten Matbench endpoints, outer evidence confirms the selected intervention on nine of ten endpoints and preserves 89.3% of non-tied intervention orderings. It also rejects an aggregate Representation gain that inner feedback endorsed. The resulting matrix reveals an information-dependent hierarchy. Composition-only tasks support several routes to improvement, whereas structure-informed tasks favor local geometry features and complementary tree ensembles. A subsequent compatibility test combines already frozen Feature and Model code without further search or tuning and raises mean outer-holdout improvement from 19.0% to 26.3%. By validating decisions rather than only artifacts, this design turns adaptive search into reusable evidence wherever agents propose executable alternatives against a fixed evaluator.

Verifying LLM-generated answers under a shared computational budget requires jointly deciding which candidates to inspect and which verification attributes to evaluate. We formulate this problem as multi-attribute good-arm identification under a global budget: each candidate is an arm evaluated along several costly attributes, and the goal is to certify as many candidates as possible whose mean scores exceed the prescribed thresholds on all attributes. We propose \textsc{BMA-GAI}, an algorithm that combines cost-aware arm selection with adaptive sampling of attributes. Every observation serves both to guide adaptive allocation and to support anytime-valid certification, which removes the need for a separate confirmation stage. We establish an asymptotic coverage guarantee for \textsc{BMA-GAI} and derive a matching information-theoretic converse that characterizes the intrinsic complexity of the problem, thereby proving that \textsc{BMA-GAI} is first-order optimal away from critical budget levels. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and an LLM answer-verification task show that \textsc{BMA-GAI} allocates the verification budget more efficiently and certifies more high-quality candidates than competing methods.

Autonomous research agents can generate hypotheses and conduct experiments, but experimentation remains a major source of computational cost. A fundamental challenge is deciding which experiments are worth running, particularly when prior evidence is insufficient to resolve uncertainty. Yet current research agents lack a systematic way to leverage experimental experience when making such decisions. We introduce Experimental Experience Modeling (EEM), a framework for making informed experimental decisions by acquiring, reusing, and accumulating experimental experience. EEM extracts decision-relevant records from earlier experimental trajectories, distills them into reusable experience, and organizes them in an experience library. For a new experimental decision, EEM retrieves relevant historical experience and assesses whether it provides sufficient support for deciding whether a candidate direction warrants further investment. When historical experience is insufficient, EEM conducts a targeted, low-cost pilot experiment to acquire the missing decision-relevant experience on demand. It then combines this newly acquired experience with retrieved historical experience to determine whether the direction warrants full-scale evaluation, which requires substantial resources. The resulting experimental outcomes are further distilled into reusable experience, allowing the library to continually grow through iterative accumulation. Experiments on autonomous research benchmarks show that EEM improves research performance while reducing model interaction overhead, demonstrating the value of reusing accumulated experience and acquiring additional experience only when needed.