Forecasting from Counterfactual Simulator Rollouts: A Sim2Real Evaluation

Suppose a planner has a pre-trained simulator of a sequential decision problem and the option to run real experiments in the field. The simulator is cheap to query but inherits confounding and drift from its calibration data. Experimentation is unbiased but consumes one real unit per trial. We study when, and how, the planner should supplement the simulator with experiments. We give three results. First, an extended simulation lemma decomposes the simulator's value error into a calibration--deployment shift that randomization can identify and a parametric residual that no further interaction can reduce. Second, the value gap between the simulator-optimal policy and the optimum splits into a local component, on states the deployed policy already visits, and a reachability component, on states it does not. The reachability component stays bounded away from zero at any horizon under purely passive learning. Third, we propose Fisher-SEP, a simulation-aided experimental policy (SEP) that minimizes the posterior predictive variance of a target policy's value, with reward-only and transition-only specializations. Two case studies illustrate the regimes. In a vending-machine supply chain, front-loaded experimentation overtakes posterior updating once the horizon is long enough to amortize the pilot. In an HIV mobile-testing example with a corridor that separates a well-surveilled region from a poorly-surveilled one, only designed exploration reaches the poorly-surveilled region.

Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score. We introduce ForecastBench-Sim, a simulated-world forecasting benchmark built on game rollouts from Freeciv, a turn-based strategy game modelled on the Civilization series. Forecasters receive a fixed world report (a structured snapshot of the current game state) and answer questions about hidden future states; the benchmark then continues the simulation and scores forecasts. Because the world is simulated, the same setup can generate continuous or binary forecasting questions at arbitrary time horizons, paired intervention worlds for conditional or causal questions, and resolved examples of rare or disruptive outcomes. We describe the benchmark pipeline, question families, scoring protocol, and release artifacts, and report validation slices from model evaluations and an anonymized human pilot. ForecastBench-Sim is intended to complement real-world forecasting benchmarks by providing controlled, immediately resolvable tasks for studying probabilistic reasoning under dynamic world states.

Simulation and experimental measurements provide complementary data for learning spatiotemporal physical systems, but standard simulation-to-experiment fine-tuning optimizes only the experimental objective after transfer and can degrade simulation performance. We formulate simulation--experiment prediction as a multi-objective learning problem with domain-specific simulation and experimental risks. On four fluid systems from RealPDEBench and two model capacities, we compare Simulation only, Experiment only, Sim$\rightarrow$Exp, and Joint training, evaluating every final model on both held-out domains. Sim$\rightarrow$Exp tends to specialize more strongly to experimental data at the cost of simulation-domain forgetting. Joint training consistently achieves the best balanced performance over a broad range of simulation--experiment evaluation weightings, while substantially improving simulation retention over Sim$\rightarrow$Exp. Joint also better preserves simulation-only fields absent from experimental measurements. Project page: https://mahindrautela.github.io/morph.