Authors: Harsh Parikh, Gabriel Levin-Konigsberg, Dominique Perrault-Joncas, Alexander Volfovsky
Organizations: Amazon SCOT, Seattle, USA · Yale University, New Haven, USA · Duke University, Durham, USA
Abstract
Suppose a planner has a pre-trained simulator of a sequential decision problem and the option to run real experiments in the field. The simulator is cheap to query but inherits confounding and drift from its calibration data. Experimentation is unbiased but consumes one real unit per trial. We study when, and how, the planner should supplement the simulator with experiments. We give three results. First, an extended simulation lemma decomposes the simulator's value error into a calibration--deployment shift that randomization can identify and a parametric residual that no further interaction can reduce. Second, the value gap between the simulator-optimal policy and the optimum splits into a local component, on states the deployed policy already visits, and a reachability component, on states it does not. The reachability component stays bounded away from zero at any horizon under purely passive learning. Third, we propose Fisher-SEP, a simulation-aided experimental policy (SEP) that minimizes the posterior predictive variance of a target policy's value, with reward-only and transition-only specializations. Two case studies illustrate the regimes. In a vending-machine supply chain, front-loaded experimentation overtakes posterior updating once the horizon is long enough to amortize the pilot. In an HIV mobile-testing example with a corridor that separates a well-surveilled region from a poorly-surveilled one, only designed exploration reaches the poorly-surveilled region.
One goal in reinforcement learning (RL) research is to understand general-purpose sequential decision-making, using benchmark simulators as a proxy for learning in deployment settings. When running experiments, however, the goal of achieving high performance in the simulator can mutate into focusing exclusively on solving the simulator. To achieve high scores, researchers may adopt solutions exclusively meant for solving simulators, rather than learning while the agent is deployed outside a simulator. Solving simulators is also worthy of investigation, but it is a fundamentally different RL research question. In this paper, we argue that RL researchers need to distinguish between two use cases of simulators: solving simulators and using simulators as a proxy for learning in deployment. We first discuss how these two use-cases are importantly different, in terms of constraints on how the agent can use the simulator, which algorithms are appropriate, and which evaluation metrics are appropriate. We then highlight several issues and misleading conclusions that can occur by not making the distinction between these two settings clear, supported with examples and simple experiments. This work is a call to the community to begin clearly distinguishing how they are using simulators in their work, hopefully sparking further discussion on which empirical practices work best in each setting.
While sim2real efforts are necessary for effective policy transfer to hardware, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. We argue that sim2real efforts have led to misaligned incentives with policy learning, resulting in simulator lock in and poor policy exploration due to the unreasonable constraints imposed by the real world. We offer a diagnosis and explanation of the current status of the problem, and propose a potential solution via a sim2sim2real paradigm that leverages the robot's kinematics as the sole design constraint.
Kyle Morgenstein, Bharath Masetty, Stephen Welch +1
Simulating group-level user behavior enables scalable counterfactual evaluation of merchant strategies without costly online experiments. However, building a trustworthy simulator faces two structural challenges. First, information incompleteness causes reasoning-based simulators to over-rationalize when unobserved factors such as offline context and implicit habits are missing. Second, mechanism duality requires capturing both interpretable preferences and implicit statistical regularities, which no single paradigm achieves alone. We propose Policy-Guided Hybrid Simulation (PGHS), a dual-process framework that mines transferable decision policies from behavioral trajectories and uses them as a shared alignment layer. This layer anchors an LLM-based reasoning branch that prevents over-rationalization and an ML-based fitting branch that absorbs implicit regularities. Group-level predictions from both branches are fused for complementary correction. We deploy PGHS on Meituan with 101 merchants and over 26,000 trajectories. PGHS achieves a group simulation error of 8.80%, improving over the best reasoning-based and fitting-based baselines by 45.8% and 40.9% respectively.