Strategic Investment Decision Making for Value Creation in Energy Transition: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is crucial for power system decarbonization, yet unlocking DERs' flexibility is challenged by their inherent uncertainties and modelling complexity. As traditional optimization methods struggle with such uncertainty and complexity of DERs, reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising alternative for DER management. However, standard RL methods suffer from sample inefficiency and sub-optimality when trained from scratch. Inspired by the training paradigms in large language models, this paper proposes a Supervised Reinforcement Learning (SRL) framework for learning DER coordination policies. This framework first pre-trains a policy on demonstration data in a supervised-learning fashion, which is then further fine-tuned using RL. Furthermore, we propose a two-step fine-tuning process: offline fine-tuning for enhancing policy performance and online fine-tuning for adapting it to the real-world dynamics. Experiments demonstrate that RL implementations based on the proposed framework significantly outperform all benchmarks, achieving high cost efficiency even under low-quality demonstration data.

The rapid growth of Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption challenges power distribution networks through peak load spikes, voltage instability, and transformer overloads from uncoordinated charging. While Model Predictive Control (MPC) and standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods have addressed these issues, existing approaches rarely treat real-time carbon intensity or fluctuating renewable energy (RE) availability as primary scheduling objectives, leaving substantial decarbonisation potential unrealised. This paper proposes an emission-aware RL strategy based on the Soft Actor Critic (SAC) algorithm, with a multi-objective reward that penalises carbon emissions, curtailed on-site renewables, and unmet user demand. The agent is trained within a unified benchmarking framework on the EV2Gym platform, incorporating behind-the-meter solar and wind profiles, time-varying EirGrid carbon intensity data, and realistic workplace EV behaviour across 25 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) units. Nine control strategies, including heuristics, emission-aware MPC variants, and the proposed RL agent, are compared under five renewable penetration scenarios (0%-50%) over ten independent runs each. The RL agent achieves a carbon intensity as low as 23.96 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour under 50% wind penetration, representing up to 87% emission reduction versus the uncontrolled baseline, and outperforms the external graph-based Power Distribution Network (PDN) benchmark. Transformer overload remains below 7 kWh across scenarios, against up to 1093 kWh for the As Fast As Possible (AFAP) heuristic, and renewable self-consumption reaches 52% under combined wind and solar supply. Embedding carbon intensity forecasts into the RL state and reward aligns charging with low-emission periods while preserving grid compliance and user satisfaction.

Decarbonization of isolated or off-grid energy systems through phase-in of large shares of intermittent solar or wind generation requires co-installation of energy storage or continued use of existing fossil dispatchable power sources to balance supply and demand. The effective CO2 emission reduction depends on the relative capacity of the energy storage and renewable sources, the stochasticity of the renewable generation, and the control of the isolated energy system. While the operation of the energy storage and dispatchable sources impacts the optimal sizing of the system, it is challenging to account for the effect of finite-horizon optimal control at the stage of system sizing. In this work, we present a flexible and computationally efficient sizing framework for energy storage and renewable capacity in isolated energy systems, accounting for uncertainty in the renewable generation and the optimal control. We implement an imitation learning approach to stochastic neural model predictive control (MPC) which allows us to relate the battery storage and wind peak capacities to the emissions reduction and investment costs while accounting for finite horizon, optimal control without solving an infeasible number of optimization problems. We evaluate the proposed sizing framework on a case study of an offshore energy system with a gas turbine, a wind farm and a battery energy storage system (BESS). In this case, we find a nonlinear, nontrivial relationship between the investment costs and the reduction in gas usage for different wind and BESS capacities.