Towards Universal Calibration for In-Context Classification

We propose to improve in-context learning (ICL) by optimizing the continuous embeddings of a fixed few-shot prompt at test time. The key observation is that the log-probabilities a model assigns to its demonstrated outputs$\unicode{x2013}$available from a single forward pass without generating any tokens$\unicode{x2013}$provide a meaningful signal for how well the model has inferred the task from its demonstrations. We formalize this signal as a bounded, self-supervised confidence proxy and maximize it via zeroth-order optimization over the prompt embeddings, yielding a test-time calibration procedure. The approach requires no finetuning, no token generation, no predefined label set, and no external data, making it equally applicable to both classification and free-form generation tasks. Across a comprehensive suite of ICL tasks, the proposed calibration consistently matches or improves upon the base model and outperforms classification-specific baselines on most tasks. The statistically significant correlation between proxy improvement and downstream accuracy gain confirms that the proposed proxy encodes a reliable optimization signal for in-context learning.

In-context learning (ICL) is an emerging paradigm that employs the semantic information inherent in large language models (LLMs) for generating answers to user queries. While the remarkable performance of ICL has been widely known, a general modeling and a rigorous theoretical analysis of this paradigm are still lacking. This work presents a probabilistic model for ICL and derives the performance of ICL for both general parametric distributions and exponential families. Based on the derived results, the work explains the impact of multiple factors such as the number of demonstrations, the sensitivity of the probabilistic model to the variation of its parameters, as well as the similarity between the demonstrations and the query on the performance of ICL.

Post-hoc calibration aligns a classifier's predicted confidences with its empirical accuracy without retraining. An ideal calibrator should correct nonlinear miscalibration, scale gracefully to large label spaces, and preserve the original predictions; existing methods typically violate at least one of these properties---temperature scaling lacks expressivity, more flexible parametric alternatives introduce parameters that grow with the number of classes $C$, and other expressive methods do not preserve the rank ordering of class scores and may alter the predicted class. We propose Invertible Logits Transformation (InvLT), which applies a learned scalar MLP $f:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ element-wise to the pre-softmax logits. Sharing $f$ across all logit dimensions makes the parameter count independent of $C$. Monotonicity of $f$---and hence preservation of the argmax prediction---is softly encouraged via a paired inverse network rather than enforced through the numerical integration required by prior monotone calibrators; this avoids their computational overhead while empirically preserving the original classification accuracy in every setting we evaluate. Across standard image classification benchmarks and a range of architectures, InvLT consistently outperforms a broad set of post-hoc baselines on standard calibration metrics.