Root-cause analysis (RCA) in large-scale distributed systems is challenging because a single symptom can cross service, data, configuration, compute, and organizational boundaries. Responders must assemble incomplete evidence and coordinate experts who hold different parts of the causal path. Generic language-model agents do not solve this problem through tool access alone: they can use stale or mistimed context, interpret failed queries as absent symptoms, report unsupported system state, and overload observability services designed for human-paced use. We present Diviner (Domain-Informed Verifiable Incident Navigation through Evidence and Review), an agentic RCA system operating at Meta and organized around a four-stage reliability lifecycle. Encode combines a large corpus of reviewed incidents with service-owner expertise to produce scoped, versioned skills, workflows, typed tools, and an incident knowledge graph. Execute uses an adaptive Lead and context-isolated workers to apply relevant knowledge to point-in-time evidence and maintain evidence-linked hypotheses. Evaluate compares saved investigation trajectories with responder-reviewed outcomes to measure exact cause, useful direction, and Groundedness. Adapt uses recurring gaps and on-call feedback to derive focused operational- knowledge updates, admitting them only after replay, quality checks, and owner approval.
Figures & tables
Figure 1. Anatomy of a cross-service incident investigation. Solid arrows show representative paths from candidate causes through failure mechanisms and local effects to downstream impact. The dashed path above shows responders tracing the incident in the reverse direction, while service experts examine different parts of the system in parallel.
Figure 2. Relative mitigation time by cause in reviewed ranking-infrastructure incidents. Values are normalized to the corpus-wide median; bars span Q1–Q3 and dots mark category medians on a logarithmic axis.
Requirement
Why it is needed
Design obligation
Grounding
Plausible but absent, stale, or unsupported details can misdirect responders.
Link findings to current, attributed evidence; distinguish empty data from tool failure; abstain when support is insufficient.
Control and load
Adaptive planning and machine-speed queries can amplify a wrong branch, retry loop, or backend load.
Keep the plan revisable while bounding capabilities, concurrency, retries, context, deadlines, and resource use.
Knowledge
Models lack local state, while procedures, ownership, and interfaces drift.
Encode owned, versioned artifacts and track their applicability and quality.
Evaluation
A fluent answer can hide a lucky guess, unsupported reasoning, or wasted work.
Evaluate outcome and trajectory, including direction, grounding, failed checks, and efficiency.
Performance
Assistance must arrive before responders find the same evidence.
Measure time to supported findings and final conclusions, including tail latency.
Action boundary
Tools access sensitive systems, but the model has no authority to change them.
Preserve service authorization and auditability; leave mitigation to responders.
Table 1. Requirements for AI-assisted operational investigation.
Figure 3. Diviner’s four-stage lifecycle. Encode builds governed diagnostic knowledge; Execute combines it with live evidence; Evaluate identifies gaps in the saved trajectory; and Adapt publishes replayed, owner-approved updates.
Figure 4. IKG construction and matching. Reviewed incidents are distilled into semantic views and normalized factors, which form a versioned dual index. At runtime, preliminary symptoms and incident context form a query; semantic retrieval supplies candidates and shared factors constrain and explain the matches. Returned precedents remain hypotheses until verified with live tools.
Figure 5. Executing an investigation. The Lead converts incident context and governed knowledge into focused worker goals. Workers gather live observations through registered tools; an evidence layer preserves their source and status, and the runtime Review Agent checks the result before it reaches a human responder.
Stage
Action
Recorded state
Discover
Search compact metadata; rank relevance first
Query and candidate identifiers
Bind
Resolve an enabled artifact version
Identifier and version
Dispatch
Construct a scoped worker context and tool view
Worker, plan step, and actual tool view
Update
Replay and review before publication
Proposal lineage and new version
Table 2. Registry lifecycle and recorded state.
Outcome
Interpretation
Data returned
Candidate observation after scope and provenance checks
Valid empty result
Potential counter-evidence only for the requested scope
Invalid or denied
No evidence; correct the request or report the authorization failure
Timeout, throttle, or backend failure
No evidence; retain the operational failure
Table 3. Normalized tool outcomes and their evidentiary meaning.
Measure
Result
Observed TDM difference
Approximately 52% lower (95% CI: 45.7–57.9%)
Observed pre-mitigation effort
Approximately 15% lower (95% CI: 11.0–18.1%)
Investigation quality
Full scored operational set; 45% Exact RCA, 60% useful Direction, and 80% mean Groundedness
Operational agent latency
Final conclusion: approximately 15 min p50 and 24.0 min p95; first useful, medium-confidence hypothesis: 7.0 min p50 and 13.7 min p95
Early-trigger advantage
Agent-specific alerts launch investigation before responder-facing incident thresholds and provide roughly a half-hour head start
Knowledge-update activity
>100 cycles; about 30 proposed new skills; all adopted changes passed replay and human approval
Table 4. Operational summary
Measure
Included records
Definition
TDM
Incidents with valid detection and mitigation times
Detection to mitigation, including investigation, coordination, and recovery
Final latency
Completed agent runs
End-to-end agent runtime from trigger acceptance to the final conclusion
First direction
Runs with fine-grained checkpoints
Trigger acceptance to the first useful, medium-confidence hypothesis
Exact RCA
Investigations with reviewed outcomes
Specific causal mechanism identified
Direction
Investigations with reviewed outcomes
Useful narrowing toward the correct subsystem or mechanism
Groundedness
Investigations with reviewable evidence
Degree to which claims remain supported by cited evidence
Table 5. Evaluation measures, included records, and definitions.
Dimension
Positive test
Does not receive credit
Exact RCA
Supported conclusion matches the reviewed causal mechanism.
Restating symptoms, impact, or only the affected component.
Direction
Findings narrow the search toward the correct subsystem, failure family, or mechanism.
Broad guesses or elimination unsupported by current evidence.
Groundedness
Claims and hypothesis transitions follow cited evidence with valid source, scope, time, and outcome.
Unsupported detail or transitions, contradiction, failed-query misuse, unreliable elimination, repeated work, or inconsistent time ranges.
Table 6. DivinerEval dimensions and principal scoring tests.
Root-cause category
RCA
Dir.
Ground.
Stronger observed performance
Infrastructure, hardware, and network
55%
65%
80%
Traffic, scaling, and load management
42%
65%
74%
Moderate performance
Latency and performance regression
41%
55%
61%
Capacity and quota deficit
40%
55%
69%
Table 7. Category-level operational performance across all available Diviner evaluations. Scores are incident-weighted percentages. Green, amber, and red cells denote scores of at least 60%, 40–59%, and below 40%, respectively.
Figure 6. Assisted and unassisted TDM in a fixed operational cohort. Calendar dates are omitted. The top panel recomputes cumulative p50 TDM and normalizes both series to the final unassisted median; the bottom panel shows cumulative cohort share.
Element
Design choice
Baseline
Claude vanilla with native capabilities and without the Diviner harness
Harness comparison
Diviner + Claude adds the Diviner harness while retaining the baseline model
Diviner harness
Governed skills and workflows, historical retrieval, Lead–worker orchestration, tool and evidence contracts, and checkpointing
Platform comparison
Diviner + Codex applies the same harness through a different agentic platform
Operational context
An additional operational configuration is reported for context
Pairing
Every configuration receives the same alert-time input for each incident
Table 8. Controlled-study protocol.
Figure 7. Controlled results for the generic-agent baseline, the Diviner harness on two agentic platforms, and the operational configuration. Panel (a) reports mean Exact RCA, useful Direction, and Groundedness scores. Panel (b) reports wall time, with bars showing p50 and markers showing p90. Paired differences and confidence intervals are reported in the text.
Observed gap
Target
Candidate change
Missing or incorrect diagnostic procedure
Skill
Add checks, decision rules, or interpretation guidance
Wrong ordering, dependency, or coverage
Workflow
Revise initial steps, branches, or skill bindings
Evidence unavailable, malformed, or repeatedly misused
Tool contract
Add a tool or repair inputs, outputs, and failure semantics
Stale scope, ownership, or eligibility
Registry
Correct metadata, filtering, enablement, or version selection
Missing or misleading historical precedent
IKG
Add, relink, rescope, or retire a failure signature
Systematic judge disagreement
Evaluation rubric
Refine scoring criteria without changing agent behavior
Table 9. How DivinerEval findings route to adaptation targets.
Gate
Check
Artifact validation
Schema parses; referenced artifacts resolve; owner, scope, and version are present; requested capabilities remain allowed.
Point-in-time replay
Baseline and candidate receive the same incident-time inputs, registry cutoff, and available tool snapshots.
Quality and regression
Target cases improve without material regressions in Exact RCA, Direction, Groundedness, latency, or tool behavior on relevant cases.
Leakage control
Runtime inputs exclude reviewed outcomes and later discussion; the candidate artifact is the only intended post-incident change.
Owner decision
The owner reviews the artifact diff, motivating evidence, replay comparison, and recorded regressions before approval.
Release control
An approved change receives a new version and retains monitoring, disablement, rollback, and proposal lineage.
Table 10. Checks applied before an adaptation can enter a registry.