Scenario Generalization and Sector Transfer in Real Surface Irrigation Surrogate Modelling with Tabular Models

Near-real-time flood depth prediction demands surrogate models that are accurate, fast, and transferable across watersheds. Supervised surrogates can match physics-based simulators in accuracy but need millions of training rows per watershed and cannot extrapolate beyond their original mesh. We propose a domain-aware coreset construction pipeline that conditions a tabular foundation model at inference time. The pipeline stratifies storms by return period and most-affected watershed, then samples hexagons with a target-aware spatial selector. With 0.7% of the per-watershed training pool, the model attains a mean $R^2$ of 0.663 across nine Houston-area watersheds, within 98.5% of the supervised reference ($R^2$ = 0.673). It transfers to held-out watersheds without task-specific retraining, staying ahead of a coreset-trained supervised baseline. On real storms it exceeds the supervised reference on a far out-of-distribution case and trails it on a mostly in-distribution one. Domain-aware coreset construction lets tabular foundation models deliver data-efficient, watershed-transferable flood predictions without per-watershed training.

Operational flood forecasting still relies on high-fidelity two-dimensional hydraulic solvers, but their runtime can be prohibitive for rapid decision support on large urban floodplains. In parallel, AI-based surrogate models have shown strong potential in several areas of computational physics for accelerating otherwise expensive high-fidelity simulations. We address this issue on the lower Têt River (France), starting from a production-grade Telemac2D model defined on a high-resolution unstructured finite-element mesh with more than $4\times 10^5$ nodes. From this setup, we build a learning-ready database of synthetic but operationally grounded flood events covering several representative hydrograph families and peak discharges. On top of this database, we develop a graph-neural surrogate based on projected meshes and multimesh connectivity. The projected-mesh strategy keeps training tractable while preserving high-fidelity supervision from the original Telemac simulations, and the multimesh construction enlarges the effective spatial receptive field without increasing network depth. We further study the effect of an explicit discharge feature $Q(t)$ and of pushforward training for long autoregressive rollouts. The experiments show that conditioning on $Q(t)$ is essential in this boundary-driven setting, that multimesh connectivity brings additional gains once the model is properly conditioned, and that pushforward further improves rollout stability. Among the tested configurations, the combination of $Q(t)$, multimesh connectivity, and pushforward provides the best overall results. These gains are observed both on hydraulic variables over the surrogate mesh and on inundation maps interpolated onto a common $25\,\mathrm{m}$ regular grid and compared against the original high-resolution Telemac solution. On the studied case, the learned surrogate produces 6-hour predictions in about $0.4\,\mathrm{s}$ on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU, compared with about $180\,\mathrm{min}$ on 56 CPU cores for the reference simulation. These results support graph-based surrogates as practical complements to industrial hydraulic solvers for operational flood mapping.

High-fidelity numerical simulation of subsurface flow is computationally intensive, especially for many-query tasks such as uncertainty quantification and data assimilation. Deep learning (DL) surrogates can significantly accelerate forward simulations, yet constructing them requires substantial machine learning (ML) expertise - from architecture design to hyperparameter tuning - that most domain scientists do not possess. Furthermore, the process is predominantly manual and relies heavily on heuristic choices. This expertise gap remains a key barrier to the broader adoption of DL surrogate techniques. For this reason, we present AutoSurrogate, a large-language-model-driven multi-agent framework that enables practitioners without ML expertise to build high-quality surrogates for subsurface flow problems through natural-language instructions. Given simulation data and optional preferences, four specialized agents collaboratively execute data profiling, architecture selection from a model zoo, Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, model training, and quality assessment against user-specified thresholds. The system also handles common failure modes autonomously, including restarting training with adjusted configurations when numerical instabilities occur and switching to alternative architectures when predictive accuracy falls short of targets. In our setting, a single natural-language sentence can be sufficient to produce a deployment-ready surrogate model, with minimum human intervention required at any intermediate stage. We demonstrate the utility of AutoSurrogate on a 3D geological carbon storage modeling task, mapping permeability fields to pressure and CO$_2$ saturation fields over 31 timesteps. Without any manual tuning, AutoSurrogate is able to outperform expert-designed baselines and domain-agnostic AutoML methods, demonstrating strong potential for practical deployment.