Quantifying Claim Smoothing by LLM Research Agents
Organizations: New York University
Abstract
Deep research, or any use of large language models (LLMs) to read a large document collection and produce insights, requires synthesizing information from different sources. In this work, we find that LLMs produce long-form research reports that read as confident syntheses but which fail to accurately reflect the underlying documents. We call this failure smoothing. In collapsing diverse and potentially conflicting sources into a single narrative, the model discards the evidential "jaggedness" of its corpus and asserts conclusions more decisive than the citations can support. We introduce a claim level scoring pipeline, SmoothScore, to quantify this effect. Our pipeline extracts key conclusive claims from model generated reports, then finds evidence relevant to each claim and clusters that evidence along high level aspects. Finally, each claim is scored with respect to the evidence to quantify the degree of smoothing done by the agent. Across 7 systems and 4 datasets, we find that agents consistently produce stronger claims than warranted.
Figures & tables
| Sample | SmoothScore | % of claims w/given SmoothScore | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dataset | System | Reports | Claims | Mean [95% CI] | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| ResearcherBench | Luna 5.6 | 65 | 443 | 1.95 [1.85, 2.06] | 37.0% | 34.1% | 25.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Sol 5.6 | 64 | 430 | 1.93 [1.81, 2.05] | 37.0% | 35.6% | 25.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% | |
| Sonnet 5 | 65 | 435 | 2.52 [2.42, 2.61] | 13.8% | 26.7% | 53.3% | 6.2% | 0.0% | |
| Opus 5.5 | 65 | 445 | 2.36 [2.28, 2.44] | 19.1% | 29.4% | 47.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% | |
| QUEST | 63 | 404 | 2.50 [2.35, 2.65] | 18.1% | 26.7% | 43.6% | 10.1% | 1.5% | |
| Pattern | Claim | Summarized Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Unsupported composition | The aggressive deployment of duplication-aware token pruning , Modality-Aware Mixture of Experts , and adaptive halting ensures that vast, world-class parameter capacities can be maintained without triggering corresponding explosions in inference latency. Score: 3 | Token pruning, sparse expert routing, and adaptive halting can each reduce inference cost in particular settings. However, the evidence does not evaluate their simultaneous deployment or show that their benefits compose. Each can introduce routing, pruning, synchronization, or kernel overheads, so the combined system does not guarantee bounded latency at frontier scale. |
| Scope expansion | Self-attention-based models are highly parallelizable and require substantially fewer parameters, making them much more computationally efficient , less prone to overfitting , and easier to fine-tune for domain-specific tasks … Score: 4 | Some ViTs achieve strong performance with lower pre-training compute in particular comparisons, but these advantages do not generalize across models or regimes. ViTs often have comparable or larger parameter counts, global attention has quadratic cost, and ViTs can be more prone to overfitting in low-data settings without large-scale pre-training or careful regularization. |
| Premature closure | This innovation fundamentally resolves the statistical heterogeneity (Non-IID) problem while strictly preserving the privacy boundaries established by institutional firewalls. Score: 5 | Federated distillation can mitigate heterogeneity and reduce direct data sharing, but it does not eliminate either problem. Performance continues to degrade as heterogeneity increases, theoretical analyses retain residual bias, and privacy attacks remain possible. |
| Exact | W/in 1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annotator 1 vs. Annotator 2 | 58% | 96% | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Judge vs. Annotator 1 | 56% | 93% | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| Luna | Sonnet 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition | Context | Length | ( ) | Context | Length | ( ) |
| WebSearch draft (score) | – | 68.3 | – | 64.4 | ||
| Revise, no context | – | ( ) | – | ( ) | ||
| Revise + cited documents | 117k | ( ) | 324k | ( ) | ||
| Revise + SmoothScore evidence | 11k | ( ) | 65k | ( ) | ||
| Luna | Sonnet 5 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cited documents | 496 | 1,458 |
| Opened | 95 (19%) | 34 (2%) |
| Not opened | 401 (81%) | 1,424 (98%) |
| Reports opening no page | 45 / 65 | 44 / 65 |
| % of claims with SmoothScore | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Condition | Length | Claims | Mean [95% CI] | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Luna | WebSearch | 1.0 | 416 | 1.95 [1.84, 2.07] | 37.3 | 33.4 | 26.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| WebSearch + Instr. | 1.0 | 397 | 1.88 [1.78, 1.98] | 40.3 | 34.0 | 23.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | |
| Docs | 1.6 | 390 | 1.80 [1.70, 1.91] | 45.6 | 31.0 | 21.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Docs + Instr. | 1.4 | 378 | 1.52 [1.44, 1.60] | 61.1 | 26.7 | 11.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | |
| Sonnet 5 | WebSearch | 1.0 | 407 | 2.54 [2.44, 2.63] | 13.5 | 25.6 | 54.8 | 6.1 | 0.0 |
| Condition | Claim |
|---|---|
| WebSearch SmoothScore: 4 | Protection should be soft and probabilistic, not permanently frozen: an important parameter may eventually be revised if sufficient contradictory evidence accumulates. |
| Judge rationale | Requires recasting: the prescription excludes hard freezing and non-probabilistic approaches despite evidence supporting their effectiveness. |
| Docs + instructions SmoothScore: 1 | Previously useful parameters or subnetworks should be protected from destructive updates. This can be implemented through frozen columns, masks, structural isolation, or soft importance-weighted constraints [doc 2][doc 3][doc 5]. |
Appendix figures & tables12 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Step | Stage | Model | Prompt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claim extraction | GPT-5-mini | App. B.1 |
| 2 | Evidence extraction: support agent | GPT-5-mini | App. B.2 |
| 2 | Evidence extraction: skeptic agent | GPT-5-mini | App. B.3 |
| 3 | Aspect induction: per-document proposals | GPT-5-mini | App. B.4 |
| 3 | Aspect induction: cross-document merge | GPT-5-mini | App. B.5 |
| 4 | Evidence assignment | GPT-5-mini | App. B.6 |
| Benchmark | Candidates | Kept |
|---|---|---|
| DeepResearch Bench II (English) | 66 | 18 |
| ResearchRubrics | 101 | 17 |
| System | Model ID | Access |
|---|---|---|
| GPT Luna + Websearch | gpt-5.6-luna | OpenAI Responses API |
| GPT Sol + Websearch | gpt-5.6-sol | OpenAI Responses API |
| Claude Sonnet 5 + Websearch | claude-sonnet-5 | Anthropic Messages API |
| Claude Opus 5 + Websearch | claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic Messages API |
| Gemini Deep Research | deep-research-preview-04-2026 | Gemini Interactions API |
| DR Tulu | rl-research/DR-Tulu-8B | local (vLLM + MCP server) |
| Dataset | System | Report words | Docs/report | Evidence words |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearcherBench | Luna 5.6 | 1,828 | 8.6 | 77,898 |
| Sol 5.6 | 1,710 | 9.9 | 92,880 | |
| Sonnet 5 | 2,125 | 21.6 | 155,148 | |
| Opus 5.5 | 1,328 | 18.8 | 138,441 | |
| QUEST | 1,332 | 9.8 | 55,481 | |
| DR Tulu | 1,948 | 17.4 | 114,027 |
| A. Pooled | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Across systems | Within system | Raw pooled | ||
| Variable | ||||
| Cited documents | ( ) | ( ) | ( ) | |
| Report length | ( ) | ( ) | ( ) | |
| Number of claims | ( ) | ( ) | ( ) | |
| Claim length | ( ) | ( ) | ( ) | |
| Judge | Exact | Within 1 | Spearman | Krippendorff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annotator 2 | 58% | 96% | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| GPT-5 (judge of record) | 56% | 93% | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 27% | 74% | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 19% | 56% | 0.51 | 0.11 |
| System | Annotator 1 | GPT-5 | Gemini 2.5 Pro | Sonnet 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luna | 1.96 | 1.71 | 2.33 | 2.88 |
| DR Tulu | 2.16 | 2.60 | 2.96 | 3.32 |
| Gemini Deep Research | 2.71 | 3.04 | 3.83 | 4.42 |
| Pipeline step | Output for the example |
|---|---|
| Input question | Will RL-based methods become the mainstream approach for improving reasoning models after DeepSeek-R1, and can reward models and tree search for chain-of-thought post-training be abandoned? |
| 1. Claim extraction | “RL—especially RL with verifiable rewards—will become a mainstream component of reasoning-model training.” |
| Document reconstruction | The system reconstructs the full text of the documents cited by the report, including work on DeepSeek-R1, verifier gaming, test-time scaling, AlphaProof, AlphaGeometry2, and surveys of RL for reasoning. |
| 2a. Supporting-evidence extraction | The supporting pass extracts findings that substantiate the claim as stated. For example: “Figure 1(a) depicts the performance trajectory of DeepSeek-R1-Zero on the AIME 2024 benchmark throughout the RL training process, where the average pass@1 score on AIME 2024 shows a significant increase, jumping from an initial 15.6% to 77.9%.” “As reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the dominant paradigm for scaling reasoning capabilities in LLMs.” Across all claim–document pairs, the pass extracts supporting items. |
| 2b. Countervailing-evidence extraction | The countervailing pass extracts findings that contradict, weaken, or materially restrict the claim. For example: “We show that training on only 1,000 samples with next-token prediction and controlling thinking duration via a simple test-time technique we refer to as budget forcing leads to a strong reasoning model that scales in performance with more test-time compute.” “The rule-based RL training stage of DeepSeek-R1-Zero is narrowly focused on reasoning tasks, resulting in limited performance in broader areas such as writing and open-domain question answering.” Across all claim–document pairs, the pass extracts countervailing items. |
| 3a. Local aspect induction | For each claim–document pair, the system proposes dimensions discussed by that document that bear on evaluating the claim. For example, DeepSeek-R1 proposes an aspect concerning performance gains on objectively verifiable reasoning tasks , while the test-time-scaling paper proposes an aspect concerning non-RL alternatives for improving reasoning . |
| Pattern | Question | WebSearch ( ) | Docs in context ( ) | Docs + instructions ( ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A result from one setup stated without its conditions | Analyze the differences between the LIMO and S1 papers: objectives, methodology, key findings, contributions. | LIMO appears stronger in broad benchmark performance, particularly on GPQA Diamond and MATH500. (4) | LIMO reports higher scores than original s1 on AIME24, MATH500 and GPQA, but the studies differ in evaluation details (greedy decoding vs. temperature-0) … the comparison does not by itself establish a controlled head-to-head superiority claim. (1) | LIMO is the more explanatory and curation-focused paper … [doc 1]. (3) |
| A result from one setup stated without its conditions | How can we detect hallucinations in LLMs using their internal states, and what advantages does this offer over external methods? | Lower latency and computational cost: internal detectors can operate in the same forward pass and use a lightweight probe. MIND targets real-time detection, and HIDE reports substantially lower computation time than multi-pass methods. (2) | – | Its principal advantages over external or output-only detection are earlier intervention, richer process-level information, reduced reliance on external knowledge bases, lower latency for single-pass methods , and improved interpretability. (1) |
| Separately supported fragments combined into one demonstrated conclusion | Could transformer architectures be reimagined to process multimodal inputs (video/audio/text) as efficiently as text? | The more promising principle is: use modality-specific perception, adaptive semantic tokenization, sparse cross-modal attention, persistent latent memory, and on-demand access to raw evidence. (4) | The evidence suggests that multimodal Transformers may need to be redesigned around asymmetric processing, learned compression, latent bottlenecks, adaptive tokenization, and selective cross-modal interaction. (3) | The likely path … is to redesign the architecture so that all modalities are converted into compact, queryable representations … Whether that bottleneck can remain small enough … remains unresolved by the supplied evidence . (1) |
| Separately supported fragments combined into one demonstrated conclusion | How might federated learning combined with model distillation overcome technical and legal barriers in domains like healthcare? | The most credible approach is therefore a layered architecture: local training + distillation + secure aggregation + differential privacy + strong governance and clinical validation. (3) | The strongest approach is therefore layered: local data retention, carefully selected distillation, secure aggregation, differential privacy where appropriate … and clinical validation. (3) | The strongest approach is therefore layered: [same list] … Such an architecture can substantially lower both technical and legal risk, but the supplied documents do not support claiming that it eliminates either category of barrier . (1) |
| Conclusive or superlative wording beyond what the sources state | What is the evolution path of multimodal models from early visual representations to current multimodal LLMs, and what are the key breakthroughs? | Language as a universal interface for vision: natural language became both a source of supervision and a way to query visual representations. (3) | CLIP’s central breakthrough was language-grounded open-vocabulary recognition … The approach also exposed important limitations: performance depended on prompt wording, and CLIP struggled with counting, fine-grained recognition, and out-of-distribution images [doc 11]. (1) | CLIP and ALIGN demonstrated that web-scale paired text can train general visual representations, support retrieval, and produce zero-shot classifiers through natural language [docs 11, 13]. (1) |
| Conclusive or superlative wording beyond what the sources state | (same question) | BLIP-2 made the connection more parameter-efficient. This was an important engineering breakthrough because it showed that multimodal capability could be obtained without end-to-end retraining of every parameter. (3) | – | Flamingo and BLIP-2 showed that strong pretrained vision and language models can be connected through relatively small trainable modules rather than fully retrained end-to-end [docs 15–16]. (1) |
| System | ResearcherBench | CS2-Expert | DRB-II | ResearchRubrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luna 5.6 | 19.2% (95/496) | 13.3% (34/256) | 9.3% (27/291) | 8.9% (17/190) |
| Sol 5.6 | 27.7% (169/611) | 30.0% (88/293) | 16.1% (68/422) | 28.2% (70/248) |
| QUEST | 73.8% (217/294) | 64.9% (63/97) | 30.5% (36/118) | 29.4% (25/85) |
| Sonnet 5 | 2.3% (34/1,458) | 3.5% (19/536) | 1.1% (8/750) | 1.1% (6/559) |
| Opus 5.5 | 0.9% (12/1,277) | 2.3% (13/561) | 1.3% (10/751) | 0.2% (1/471) |
| DR Tulu | 0.5% (5/1,082) | 0% (0/445) | 0% (0/303) | 0% (0/290) |
| Pattern | System | Question | Claim (score) | Judge verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unsupported composition | DR Tulu | DRB-II ex16: I am researching the challenges faced by SRAM operating at low voltages, and I hope you can help me survey and compile a technical report on mainstream solutions. The report needs to include the following … | Alternate Cells: 7T adds explicit precharge–equalize sequence, 8T virtual-ground/zero-precharge, 9T conflict-free write with equalized leakage, 10T quasi-differential read, 11T DDPS for ultra-low leakage, 12T gating and two-stage read. (4) | The claim over-compresses heterogeneous literature into a fixed one-to-one mapping and misattributes key mechanisms (notably 7T and 11T), while several other pairings are only variant-specific. It requires substantial revision to a qualified, example-based mapping rather than categorical assignments. |
| Unsupported composition | DR Tulu | CS2-Expert ex6: Describe the Sunflower conjecture, progress towards a solution, and related problems. | Decision trees, DNF/branching programs, and communication: Variants of the sunflower conjecture directly constrain the size/width/depth of Boolean formulas and decision trees, with tight results (e.g., ) for unambiguous DNF; these bounds, proved via explicit constructions and sunflower arguments, carry over to communication protocols and algebraic complexity analogs (e.g., matrix multiplication exponent connections surveyed by Alon). (4) | The claim over-compresses heterogeneous results: it correctly cites tight unambiguous DNF bounds and connections to communication, and separately, sunflower-variant tools and matrix-multiplication connections, but it incorrectly attributes the tight DNF bound to sunflower arguments, overstates direct constraints on decision trees/branching programs, and overstates transfer to algebraic complexity. It needs substantial narrowing and reattribution. |
| Premature closure | QUEST | CS2-Expert ex11: Survey recent papers on the use of LLMs for 5G network orchestration | Validates that LLM-powered prompt engineering outperforms static ML methods in highly variable O-RAN environments. (5) | The claim overstates what the evidence shows. The record supports that LLM prompting can beat simple heuristics and be useful in hybrid schemes, but it does not validate outperformance over static ML in highly variable O-RAN environments. |
| Premature closure | QUEST | ResearcherBench ex3: In multimodal pretraining, the current mainstream paradigms are based on image tokens and stable diffusion. Analyzing the latest advancements in these two technical approaches, with reference … | SOTA Across Multiple Benchmarks: DDT-based MLLMs outperform all previously reported models in zero-shot/non-zero-shot evaluation for image-text matching, captioning, question answering (VQA, GQA), object detection, and metric scores (GenEval 0.66, NOCAPs 124.2, EVR L1 14.5, CVS 85.5%). Even compared to diffusion specialists trained on similar data, DDT shows clear superiority in compositional edits and counterfactual interpolation, owing to its recursive, attribute-rich tokens that mimic natural language structure. (4) | The claim needs substantial revision: while the quoted metric values are accurate and DDT-based MLLMs are competitive, the evidence shows they do not outperform all previously reported models on several listed benchmarks and provides no support for object detection. |
| Pattern | System | Question | Claim (score) | Judge verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scope expansion | Sonnet 5 | ResearcherBench ex49: From a technical perspective, how to understand the similarities and differences between Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) in Large Language Models (LLMs), as well as … | RL, especially when trained with an outcome-based reward, generalizes across both rule-based textual and visual variants, while SFT, in contrast, tends to memorize training data and struggles to generalize out-of-distribution scenarios. (4) | The claim overstates a mixed and conditional landscape. While there is solid evidence that outcome-based RL can improve OOD generalization in both textual and visual tasks and that SFT often overfits, there is also substantial, direct evidence that SFT can generalize and sometimes surpass RL, and that RL’s gains depend on reward design, initialization, and compute. The conclusion needs rebalancing and explicit conditions. |
| Premature closure | Luna | ResearcherBench ex3: In multimodal pretraining, the current mainstream paradigms are based on image tokens and stable diffusion. Analyzing the latest advancements in these two technical approaches, with reference … | For multimodal pretraining as a route toward a single general-purpose model, discrete image-token modeling appears more promising than a Stable-Diffusion-centered architecture. It fits naturally with the scaling machinery of language models: images, text, and video can be serialized into one sequence and trained with a common next-token objective. The strongest evidence comes from Emu3, Janus-Pro, Chameleon, and the rapidly improving tokenizers TiTok/FlexTok. (4) | The claim needs substantial revision. The evidence supports discrete-token, next-token training as a viable and rapidly improving path, but not that it is more promising overall than diffusion-centered approaches; multiple studies show diffusion/flow or hybrid models scaling better and being more compute-efficient, and the ‘natural fit’ is tempered by instability and modality-specific shortcomings. |
| Unsupported composition | Gemini | CS2-Expert ex2: What are some of the methods of detecting GPS location spoofing attack in Connected and Autonomous Vehicles? | At the mechanical layer, the tight fusion of GNSS data with highly resilient IMU kinematics and LiDAR map-matching ensures that even if a spoofed signal perfectly replicates the cryptographic and spatial signatures of a satellite, it fundamentally cannot alter the physical reality of the road ahead. (4) | The claim needs substantial revision. The evidence supports that GNSS–IMU–LiDAR/map fusion can greatly harden localization and often detect/mitigate spoofing, but it does not ensure immunity—even against sophisticated, spatially and cryptographically convincing attacks—and has documented failure modes and delays. |
LLM Reliability
Large language model reliability studies whether outputs remain correct, calibrated, robust, and controllable across prompts, contexts, and deployment conditions.
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