Binary Classification

We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form $σ(\hat{w}^\top x)$, where the feature vector $x$ is Gaussian, $σ$ is a link function, and $\hat{w}$ is an estimator of the true linear weight $w^\star$. By interpolating with a noninformative $\textit{chance classifier}$, we construct a well-calibrated predictor whose interpolation weight depends on the angle $\angle(\hat{w}, w_\star)$ between the estimator $\hat{w}$ and the true linear weight $w_\star$. We establish that this angular calibration approach is provably well-calibrated in a high-dimensional regime where the number of samples and features both diverge, at a comparable rate. The angle $\angle(\hat{w}, w_\star)$ can be consistently estimated. Furthermore, the resulting predictor is uniquely $\textit{Bregman-optimal}$, minimizing the Bregman divergence to the true label distribution within a suitable class of calibrated predictors. Our work is the first to provide a calibration strategy that satisfies both calibration and optimality properties provably in high dimensions. Additionally, we identify conditions under which a classical Platt-scaling predictor converges to our Bregman-optimal calibrated solution. Thus, Platt-scaling also inherits these desirable properties provably in high dimensions.

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model that is applicable to the general multi-task binary classification learning problem where the model assumes a shared sparsity structure across different tasks. We derive a computationally efficient inference algorithm based on variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach on various synthetic datasets and for predicting human health status based on microbiome profile. Our analysis incorporates data pooled from multiple microbiome studies, along with a comprehensive comparison with other benchmark methods. Results in synthetic datasets show that the proposed approach has superior support recovery property when the underlying regression coefficients share a common sparsity structure across different tasks. Our experiments on microbiome classification demonstrate the utility of the method in extracting informative taxa while providing well-calibrated predictions with uncertainty quantification and achieving competitive performance in terms of prediction metrics. Notably, despite the heterogeneity of the pooled datasets (e.g., different experimental objectives, laboratory setups, sequencing equipment, patient demographics), our method delivers robust results.

The practical success of deep learning has led to the discovery of several surprising phenomena. One of these phenomena, that has spurred intense theoretical research, is ``benign overfitting'': deep neural networks seem to generalize well in the over-parametrized regime even though the networks show a perfect fit to noisy training data. It is now known that benign overfitting also occurs in various classical statistical models. For linear maximum margin classifiers, benign overfitting has been established theoretically in a class of mixture models with very strong assumptions on the covariate distribution. However, even in this simple setting, many questions remain open. For instance, most of the existing literature focuses on the noiseless case where all true class labels are observed without errors, whereas the more interesting noisy case remains poorly understood. We provide a comprehensive study of benign overfitting for linear maximum margin classifiers. We discover a phase transition in test error bounds for the noisy model which was previously unknown and provide some geometric intuition behind it. We further considerably relax the required covariate assumptions in both the noisy and noiseless cases. Our results demonstrate that benign overfitting of maximum margin classifiers holds in a much wider range of scenarios than was previously known and provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms.

We develop a theoretical foundation for designing group-equivariant neural networks that align the choice of symmetries with the underlying probability distributions of the data. Utilising the general structure of fibre decompositions on the domain under group equivariant maps and its relation to that of the likelihood ratio, we present a theoretical framework for identifying group actions that maintain optimal classification performance via the Neyman-Pearson lemma. This provides a unified methodology for improving classification accuracy especially in fundamental applications where one has knowledge of the inherent symmetries of the distributions and how they are broken by measurement. As an application to jet classification at the Large Hadron Collider, we find that there can be performance gains when one utilises smaller permutation symmetries within the constituents. This work offers insights and practical guidelines for constructing more effective group equivariant architectures in diverse machine-learning contexts.

Pairwise difference learning (PDL) has recently been introduced as a new meta-learning technique for regression. Instead of learning a mapping from instances to outcomes in the standard way, the key idea is to learn a function that takes two instances as input and predicts the difference between the respective outcomes. Given a function of this kind, predictions for a query instance are derived from every training example and then averaged. This paper extends PDL toward the task of classification and proposes a meta-learning technique for inducing a PDL classifier by solving a suitably defined (binary) classification problem on a paired version of the original training data. We analyze the performance of the PDL classifier in a large-scale empirical study and find that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of prediction performance. Last but not least, we provide an easy-to-use and publicly available implementation of PDL in a Python package.

We show that established performance metrics in binary classification, such as Matthews' correlation coefficient (MCC), Cohen's $κ$, the F-score or the Jaccard similarity coefficient are not robust to class imbalance in the sense that if the proportion of the minority class tends to $0$, the true positive rate (TPR) of the Bayes classifier under these metrics {becomes very small or even tends to $0$}. Thus, in imbalanced classification problems, these metrics favour classifiers which ignore the minority class. To alleviate this issue we introduce robustified modifications of the MCC, of Cohen's $κ$ and of the F-score with an additional tuning parameter which allows to adapt the amount of robustness against class imbalance. As theoretical guarantee we show that the Bayes-optimal classifier for these robustified performance metrics, when expressed in terms of the density ratio $f_1/f_0$ of the class-conditional densities $f_i$, has a threshold parameter which is upper-bounded in terms of the tuning parameters. Therefore, even in strongly imbalanced settings, the TPR associated to this classifier will be bounded away from $0${, provided that $f_1/f_0$ exceeds this bound with positive probability under the positive class}. We numerically illustrate the behaviour of the various performance metrics and the effect of the tuning parameters in simulations as well as on a credit default data set. We also discuss connections to the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves, which provide an alternative perspective on the proposed notion of robustness, and give recommendations on how to combine their usage with performance metrics.

This study develops a graph search algorithm to find the optimal discrimination path for the binary classification problem. The objective function is defined as the difference of variations between the true positive (TP) and false positive (FP). It uses the depth first search (DFS) algorithm to find the top-down paths for discrimination. It proposes a dynamic optimization procedure to optimize TP at the upper levels and then reduce FP at the lower levels. To accelerate computing speed while improving accuracy, it proposes a reduced histogram algorithm with variable bin size instead of looping over all data points to find the feature threshold of discrimination. The algorithm is applied on top of a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for a binary classification problem on whether a person is fit or unfit. It significantly improves TP and reduces FP of the SVM results (e.g., reduced FP by 90% with a loss of only 5% TP). The graph search auto-generates 39 ranked discrimination paths within 9 seconds on an input of 328,464 objects, using a dual-core laptop computer with a processor of 2.59 GHz.