Causal Effect Estimation

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Copula-Based Endogeneity Correction for Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effect

    May 5, 2026Sahil Shikalgar, Md. Noor-E-AlamCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA

  2. Causal Software Engineering: A Vision and Roadmap

    May 4, 2026Roberto Pietrantuono, Luca Giamattei, Stefano Russo +2Software EngineeringCausal Effect Estimation

    University of Naples Federico II · Naples, Italy · Fraunhofer IESE +3

  3. Distributional Causal Mediation via Conditional Generative Modeling

    May 3, 2026Jinlun Zhang, Haoneng Huang, Zishu Zhan +1Causal Effect EstimationCausal Mediation Analysis

    State Key Laboratory of Multi-organ Injury Prevention and Treatment, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China

  4. The (Marginal) Value of a Search Ad: An Online Causal Framework for Repeated Second-price Auctions

    May 3, 2026Yuxiao Wen, Zihao Hu, Yanjun Han +2Causal Effect EstimationAutomated Bidding

    Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University · Department of Mathematics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Center for Data Science, New York University +2

  5. Minimum Specification Perturbation: Robustness as Distance-to-Falsification in Causal Inference

    May 2, 2026Hoang Dang, Luan Pham, Minh NguyenCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Independent Researcher · RMIT University, Australia · Florida Atlantic University, USA

  6. SHIFT: Robust Double Machine Learning for Average Dose-Response Functions under Heavy-Tailed Contamination

    Apr 30, 2026Eichi UeharaDouble MLRobust Regression

    Independent researcher.

  7. Bayesian X-Learner: Calibrated Posterior Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Heavy-Tailed Outcomes

    Apr 30, 2026Eichi UeharaRobust RegressionCausal Effect Estimation

    Independent researcher

  8. A Novel Computational Framework for Causal Inference: Tree-Based Discretization with ILP-Based Matching

    Apr 30, 2026Tianyu Yang, Md. Noor-E-AlamCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA

  9. Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits: Bridging Uplift Modeling and Sequential Decision-Making

    Apr 28, 2026Abhirami PillaiMulti-Armed BanditsCausal Effect Estimation

    utdallas

  10. Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time

    Apr 28, 2026Jennifer Wendland, Nicolas Freitag, Maik KschischoCausal Effect EstimationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University of Koblenz 53424 Koblenz, Germany

  11. TrialCalibre: A Fully Automated Causal Engine for RCT Benchmarking and Observational Trial Calibration

    Apr 28, 2026Amir Habibdoust, Xing SongCausal Effect EstimationBenchmark Design

    Institute for Data Science and Informatics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA. · Department of Biomedical Informatics, Biostatistics, and Medical Epidemiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.

  12. Dialysis Risk Prediction and Treatment Effect Estimation for AKI patients using Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

    Apr 27, 2026Kalyani P. Pande, Evan Yang, Bryan Zhu +3Causal Effect EstimationHealthcare

    Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA

  13. Generative Synthetic Data for Causal Inference: Pitfalls, Remedies, and Opportunities

    Apr 26, 2026Yichen XuCausal Effect EstimationSynthetic Data Generation

    University of California, Berkeley

  14. Machine learning models for estimating counterfactuals in a single-arm inflammatory bowel disease study

    Apr 25, 2026Dan Liu, Fida K. Dankar, Jennifer C. deBruyn +4Causal Effect EstimationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · Alberta Children’s Hospital, Calgary, Alberta, Canada +3

  15. Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices

    Apr 25, 2026Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson, Dominik Rothenhäusler +3Counterfactual EvaluationCausal Effect Estimation

    Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University · Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley · Technology and Operations Management Unit, Harvard Business School +3

  16. MOCA: A Transformer-based Modular Causal Inference Framework with One-way Cross-attention and Cutting Feedback

    Apr 25, 2026Lei Wang, Debashis GhoshCausal Effect EstimationCross-Attention

    Department of Biostatistics and Informatics Colorado School of Public Health

  17. From Local to Cluster: A Unified Framework for Causal Discovery with Latent Variables

    Apr 24, 2026Zongyu LiCausal Effect EstimationCausal Discovery

  18. Efficient Multi-Cohort Inference for Long-Term Effects and Lifetime Value in A/B Testing with User Learning

    Apr 22, 2026Dario Simionato, Andrea Tonon, Mingxue Wang +3Causal Effect EstimationA/b Testing

    Huawei Ireland Research Centre Dublin, Ireland · Huawei Nanjing R&D Center Nanjing, China

  19. LLM-Extracted Covariates for Clinical Causal Inference: Rethinking Integration Strategies

    Apr 18, 2026Lei Liu, Jialin Chen, Kathy MacropolCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science and Mathematics Arcadia University Glenside, PA, USA · Department of Computer Science Yale University New Haven, CT, USA

  20. Improving RCT-Based Treatment Effect Estimation Under Covariate Mismatch via Calibrated Alignment

    Mar 19, 2026Amir Asiaee, Samhita PalCausal Effect EstimationCausal Representation Learning

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, TN 37203, USA

  21. Conditional Distributional Treatment Effects: Doubly Robust Estimation and Testing

    Mar 17, 2026Saksham Jain, Alex LuedtkeCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA · Departments of Health Care Policy and Statistics, Harvard University, USA

  22. Robust Weighted Triangulation of Causal Effects Under Model Uncertainty

    Mar 1, 2026Rohit Bhattacharya, Ina Ocelli, Ted WestlingSemiparametric InferenceCausal Effect Estimation

    Dept. of Computer Science, Williams College · Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst

  23. Coarsening Bias from Variable Discretization in Causal Functionals

    Feb 25, 2026Xiaxian Ou, Razieh NabiCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, U.S.A.

  24. CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

    Feb 24, 2026Ayush Sawarni, Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis SyrgkanisCausal Effect EstimationBenchmark Design

    Stanford University

  25. Jointly Optimizing Debiased CTR and Uplift for Coupons Marketing: A Unified Causal Framework

    Feb 13, 2026Siyun Yang, Shixiao Yang, Jian Wang +6Causal Effect EstimationOnline Advertising

    Kuaishou Technology Beijing, China · Beijing Institute of Technology Beijing, China · Independent Researcher Beijing, China

  26. Uncertainty-aware Causal Decision Making via Effect Bound Decomposition

    Jan 30, 2026Md Musfiqur Rahman, Ziwei Jiang, Hilaf Hasson +1Causal Effect EstimationParameter Identifiability

    Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University · Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University · Cohesity

  27. From Confounding to Learning: Dynamic Service Fee Pricing on Third-Party Platforms

    Dec 28, 2025Rui Ai, David Simchi-Levi, Feng ZhuCausal Effect EstimationInstrumental Variable Estimation

    MIT

  28. Reliable Selection of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimators

    Nov 23, 2025Jiayi Guo, Zijun GaoCausal Effect EstimationConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation

    Peking University · Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California

  29. Spatial Deconfounder: Interference-Aware Deconfounding for Spatial Causal Inference

    Oct 9, 2025Ayush Khot, Miruna Oprescu, Maresa Schröder +2Causal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign · Cornell University, Cornell Tech · LMU Munich, Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) +1

  30. Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference without Networked Unconfoundedness Assumption

    Feb 27, 2025Weilin Chen, Ruichu Cai, Jie Qiao +2Causal Effect EstimationCausal Identifiability

    School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China · School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China and Peng Cheng Laboratory, Shenzhen, China · Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom