CoT Monitoring

CoT: Chain-of-Thought

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4 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 21

Oct 7, 2026cs.AI

Reasoning-Token Spikes Under Prompted Untruthful Responding in Large Language Models

Monitoring the chain-of-thought of reasoning artificial intelligence (AI) models remains a key approach to detecting deception and other forms of misbehavior in such models. However, semantic chain-of-thought monitoring depends on reasoning traces being legible and sufficiently faithful to the underlying computations that produced the model's behavior, not to mention accessible. Moreover, there is increasing evidence that chain-of-thought outputs may soon become illegible or unfaithful, if they even remain accessible. Based on cognitive load theory, we investigate a lower-bandwidth signal -- the number of reasoning tokens generated -- which does not require access to the content of the reasoning trace. Three reasoning-capable large language models answered 210 multiple-choice questions -- across analytic, descriptive, and normative reasoning types as well as moral and non-moral domains -- under system prompts instructing them to respond truthfully, falsely, or without regard for truth. Across all three models, truth-directed responding elicited fewer reasoning tokens than both lie-directed and truth-indifferent responding. These findings show that explicitly prompted untruthful response policies can produce robust group-level differences in test-time reasoning-token use. While not yet establishing reasoning-token count as a detector of spontaneous deception or general misalignment, our results are a proof of concept that it can serve as a simple, content-independent candidate signal for differentiating untruthful from truthful model behavior when raw reasoning traces are unavailable or unreliable. Future work should test instance-level detection rates, out-of-distribution generalization, learned deceptive policies, hidden objectives, and robustness under adversarial pressure.
Oct 1, 2026cs.LG

On Language Drift during RLVR Post-Training

Recent advances in LLM reasoning models---driven primarily by the paradigm of post-training via reinforcement learning with verifiable reward (RLVR)---have enabled them to accomplish impressively complex tasks. However, in parallel with their rising capabilities, LLMs have increasingly displayed signs of language drift in their chains of thought (CoTs): unusual, non-standard, and seemingly nonsensical language use. Although it is well-documented---and can potentially impair CoT monitorability---the causes of language drift are thus far poorly understood. In this paper, we identify the conditions under which language drift occurs: we prove theoretically that RLVR optimization pressure permits unbounded language drift, while supervised fine-tuning does not. We then show empirically that language drift specifically arises during RLVR on novel reasoning tasks---i.e. when the target behavior cannot be drawn out of the base model. Finally, we prove that it is not possible to constrain language drift without constraining expected reward, suggesting that CoT monitorability cannot be improved without harming performance during RLVR post-training at the frontier.
Sep 29, 2026cs.LG

Hidden Reasoning Must Leak, but Need Not Be Readable: Fundamental Opportunities and Limits for Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Can reasoning models trick chain of thought (CoT) monitors and perform hidden computation without revealing it in their thinking traces? We show that the answer depends on the underlying task difficulty and the model size. Simple computations can be performed covertly; however, beyond a threshold depending on model size, successfully solving the task necessarily leaks a near-linear amount of information about the covert task input into the CoT. Therefore, sufficiently complex hidden computation always leaves an information-theoretic footprint. However, concerningly, this leakage need not be readable: Under plausible cryptographic assumptions, even a one-layer Transformer can encrypt its reasoning online so that no polynomial-time monitor can extract information about the hidden computation. Overall, our theoretical and empirical results provide a holistic view of both the opportunities and the limitations of CoT monitoring.
Sep 21, 2026cs.AI

From Decorative to Load-Bearing: Task Difficulty Shapes the Causal Role of Chain-of-Thought

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is only meaningful if written reasoning causally constrains the answer. We introduce continuation-based causal testing, an ablation-patch intervention that perturbs one reasoning step, truncates the chain, and forces the model to continue from the corrupted prefix. It measures how load-bearing a CoT is for the final answer, a behavioral notion distinct from mechanistic faithfulness. Across Gemma-2-9B-IT, Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B on GSM8K, MMLU, and BIG-Bench Hard, CoT load-bearingness tracks model-relative task difficulty: on easy tasks models silently bypass their own reasoning; on hard tasks they follow corrupted steps and propagate errors. A matched 2x2 analysis shows task difficulty dominates perturbation type: error propagation rises 16x from GSM8K to BBH multistep arithmetic, and a variance partition over 28,584 continuations attributes 98.8% of explained deviance to task difficulty versus 0.8% to perturbation type. Reasoning-specific RL suppresses error propagation and compresses the gradient. A four-variant judge-sensitivity analysis and blind two-annotator study (n=500) show the error-propagation vs. non-propagation label is invariant to judge prompt, with perfect inter-annotator agreement (Cohen's kappa = 1.00). This gradient creates a structural problem for CoT-based oversight and AI safety monitoring: where the trace is easy to read it carries little signal, and where it matters errors propagate before a monitor can intervene. Linear probes on hidden states separate silent bypass, self-correction, and error propagation, but additive activation steering provides limited causal control, flipping only about 25% of error-propagation cases at best. Behavioral mode is readable but not reliably controllable.
Sep 14, 2026cs.AI

Corrupt Plans, Clean Traces: Evading Chain-of-Thought Monitoring with Plan Injection

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is a safety strategy where the reasoning of a large language model "actor" is inspected by a "monitor" (often another language model) for signs of unsafe planning, deception, or misalignment. We find that planting harmful but benign-sounding reasoning in the actor's context can steer it to perform adversarial actions while evading monitors, an attack we term "plan injection". We initially discover this attack in the multiple-choice question-answering monitorability setting proposed by Lanham et al. (2023), using the investigator-agent elicitation framework of Li et al. (2025). We generalize the attack and show that the discovered behavior scales to harder tasks (achieving 25-33% monitor evasion rates across different monitorability benchmarks) and larger models such as DeepSeek-R1. Across the settings we study, actor models not only follow injected plans but also paraphrase them as their own reasoning, without explicit attribution to the injections. Finally, we find cases where extra monitor resources cause harm - giving the monitor access to the injected plan drops detection by as much as 50% in the Bio-Math task and in a case study on monitor reasoning budget, we find transcripts where additional thinking tokens are spent rationalizing the injected plan rather than flagging it.
Aug 31, 2026cs.AI

The Answer Is Not the Argument

Chain-of-thought monitoring is proposed for AI oversight, yet evaluations often provide monitors with a trusted reference answer. We ask whether answer access improves verification of the reasoning or mainly supplies information about its conclusion. We collected 237 naturally generated, step-numbered solutions to 79 Humanity's Last Exam physics questions and independently labelled final-answer correctness and the first false step. Eight LLM monitors evaluated the traces with varying access to the reference answer. Certification raised mean balanced accuracy from 0.637 to 0.796, but its effect on error detection depended strongly on the conclusion: recall increased by +0.299 on wrong-answer traces, while there was no evidence of improvement on correct-answer traces containing a reasoning error (-0.083, 95% CI [-0.196, +0.030]). We then held the reasoning trace fixed in a seven-monitor certificate-congruence intervention. Replacing the true certificate with the trace's own incorrect conclusion reduced flagging by 0.659 (95% CI [0.602, 0.711]) and left flagging 0.389 below the answer-blind level. Conversely, a conflicting false certificate increased flagging of clean traces by 0.580, with 82.9% of newly flagged cases assigning the alleged error to an interior reasoning step. Trusted-answer access can therefore make monitoring appear substantially stronger because aggregate performance combines independent reasoning verification with a powerful certificate-conclusion consistency signal.
Aug 5, 2026cs.CL

Does Out-of-Sight Equal Out-of-Mind in CoT Monitorability?

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning offers a window into the decision-making of large language models (LLMs), which can be monitored for target behaviors by reading the reasoning trace, motivating work on CoT monitorability. Latent CoT approaches, however, replace the explicit tokens with a small number of continuous states, lowering inference costs but removing the readable trace this monitoring relies on. Monitoring then requires alternative access to the model, such as probing its activations or verbalizing the latent states back into text, but how much monitorability these alternatives preserve is unclear. We study this question with a hint-based intervention setup, a proxy for behaviors where models exploit biasing input cues, e.g., an inadvertently leaked answer or a belief stated by the user, without acknowledging them. Taking hint-reliance as the monitorability target, we compare monitors across reasoning modes, from explicit CoT to weakly- and strongly-supervised latent CoT, on math reasoning and question answering. We find that, in this setup, monitorability depends more on properties of the task (such as whether the correct answer constrains the supporting reasoning) and the level of access to model internals than on the reasoning mode.
Aug 5, 2026cs.AI

Chain-of-Thought Monitoring Can Be Unreliable in Implicit-Influence Settings

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is increasingly treated as an important safety layer for frontier reasoning models. Most monitorability evaluations study explicit-influence settings: setups where the prompt directly incentivizes the model to hide something, e.g., by instructing it to perform a hidden side-task. A complementary axis for CoT-monitor evaluations is implicit-influence settings, where the prompt contains no instruction to hide, but the model's behavior is still shaped by features of the task or context, e.g. an irrelevant detail about a candidate that biases a hiring rating. We introduce the first benchmark that directly compares CoT monitorability under the two regimes. We test how model behavior changes in the presence of a nudge to choose a particular option. The nudge is delivered either as a casual aside (implicit), or as a direct instruction to act on the nudge and to conceal having done so (explicit). The benchmark spans four task formats (binary choice, numeric rating, multiple-choice QA, open-ended coding) and seven frontier extended-thinking models. Under explicit influence, a CoT monitor detects 60-94% of behavior shifts: even models instructed to conceal it leak the instruction into their CoT. Under implicit influence, the same factors still shift behavior, but detection falls by 41-46 percentage points in two of our four settings. Realistic system-prompt additions (of the kind a developer might deploy to reduce off-topic bias) lower implicit detection further, to as low as 5%, while preserving the behavioral influence itself. These results suggest that monitorability estimates obtained in explicit-influence settings may over-estimate monitorability, and that monitorability can be further decreased by well-intentioned deployment choices. Our benchmark and code are available at https://github.com/agatha-duzan/implicit-vs-explicit-influence
Aug 3, 2026cs.CR

Evading Chain-of-Thought Monitoring Through Model Poisoning

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is an increasingly important component of AI safety stacks but relies on the assumption that a model's reasoning trace is informative about its actions. This work studies the limits of CoT monitoring through the lens of model poisoning. We demonstrate that backdoors can be implanted into reasoning models to elicit an attacker-chosen behavior while their CoT traces appear entirely benign. We find that these CoT-Hidden backdoors can be induced through simple fine-tuning recipes across reasoning-model architectures and sizes. When direct poisoning is ineffective, we introduce a curriculum training approach that progressively teaches the model to produce an attacker-chosen output while concealing the behavior from its reasoning traces. These findings suggest that CoT monitoring may be better framed as a question about the consistency between a model's reasoning trace and its final response than as anomaly detection within a trace. We further examine the mechanisms that allow models to suppress evidence of the target behavior from their reasoning traces. Causal interventions locate a trigger-conditioned activation pathway that does not depend on the visible reasoning, and residual stream verbalizations provide an anomaly warning near answer generation, but do not identify the trigger, target, or backdoor mechanism.
Jul 9, 2026cs.AI

Persuasion Attacks Can Decrease Effectiveness of CoT Monitoring

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is a promising safety mechanism for AI agents, based on the premise that visible reasoning traces can surface misaligned or deceptive behavior. While effective in standard scenarios, recent work highlights that LLMs remain vulnerable to persuasion-based jailbreaks, where natural-language arguments override model constraints. We stress-test whether this vulnerability extends to monitoring LLMs: can an adversarial agent persuade its CoT monitor to approve proposed actions that violate the monitor's policy? We design an evaluation framework with 40 tasks and analyze thousands of agent-monitor interactions, where agents are instructed to argue for policy-violating proposals. We find that in such adversarial settings, monitor access to the agent's CoT reasoning increases rather than decreases approval of harmful actions on average by 9.5%, as the scratchpad provides an additional persuasion channel. To address this, we introduce a fact-checking monitoring framework. We find that a fact-checker and monitor pairing from different model families, for example a Claude 3.7 Sonnet monitor paired with a GPT-4.1 fact-checker, reduces approval of policy-violating actions by up to 45%, compared to only 6%, when using the same model for both fact-checking and monitoring roles. Our results demonstrate that CoT monitoring alone may be insufficient against adversarial persuasion, and that model-diverse fact-checking provides a robust mitigation.
Jul 8, 2026cs.AI

Length Penalties Make Chain-of-Thought Less Monitorable

Recent work trains reasoning models with length penalties to curb overthinking and cut inference cost. We show that these penalties make the chain of thought less monitorable. A length-compressed model still lets misleading hints steer its answers, but it less often verbalizes their influence. We train Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-14B with reinforcement learning under length penalties targeting 60% down to 30% of baseline chain-of-thought length, then evaluate them with nine types of biasing hints on held-out MMLU-Pro-R and four transfer benchmarks. A chain is faithful when an LLM monitor can tell from it that the hint influenced the answer. At the 30% target, accuracy stays near baseline and wrong-answer hints switch answers as often as before. Yet faithfulness drops on every evaluation set for both models, by 39% for Qwen3-14B and 35% for Qwen3-4B on MMLU-Pro-R. A control trained with the same correctness and format rewards but no length penalty leaves faithfulness intact or raises it. Shortening alone does not explain the drop. Compressed chains mention the hint 7 to 35 percentage points less often than the uncompressed model's chains shortened to the same length by random sentence deletion, across both model sizes and all five evaluation sets. Length penalties therefore trade monitorability for inference cost by removing the evidence monitors depend on.
Jun 20, 2026cs.AI

Can Reasoning Models Detect Changes to their Chains of Thought?

There are many reasons one may want to edit a model's chain of thought (CoT) -- e.g., to prefill it with reasoning from a stronger model or to remove steps that may yield unsafe outputs. The success of these interventions plausibly depends on a model's inability to notice them, as the model may alter its behavior if it suspects tampering. In this work, we study whether recent reasoning models are able to detect such interventions on their CoTs under a variety of conditions: both during reasoning and after it, and when prefilled both with their own CoTs and with those of other models. Broadly, we find that (i) models exhibit only very modest detection accuracy; (ii) models struggle to identify how their CoT was modified; and (iii) models are about as good at detecting changes to their own CoTs as to those of other models.
Jun 10, 2026cs.LG

Bootstrapped Monitoring: Leveraging Transparent Reasoning to Oversee Stronger AI Agents

Trusted monitoring is a cornerstone of AI control. However, as frontier models grow more capable, the increasing capabilities gap between trusted and untrusted models may render trusted models unreliable monitors. We introduce \emph{bootstrapped monitoring}, a protocol that addresses this by inserting a stronger, intermediate untrusted model with transparent chain-of-thought reasoning into the oversight chain. The untrusted monitor (UmU_m) evaluates the agent's actions, while a weaker trusted model (TT) oversees UmU_m's reasoning to detect collusion. We evaluate bootstrapped monitoring on multi-turn software engineering tasks (BashArena) across multiple agents and monitors. Bootstrapped monitoring substantially improves catch rates over trusted-only monitoring, even when the untrusted monitor actively colludes with the agent, provided we have access to its raw chain-of-thought. Our results suggest that bootstrapped monitoring can extend the useful lifetime of trusted models in control as AI capabilities advance.
May 27, 2026cs.CL

The Fragility of Chain-of-Thought Monitoring Across Typologically Diverse Languages

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring has been proposed as a promising safety mechanism for detecting misaligned behavior in large language models. However, its reliability remains largely unexplored beyond English and across diverse model families. We present the first large-scale evaluation of CoT monitorability across 13 diverse languages and seven frontier model families, comprising 16 models. Using adversarial-hint evaluations that require explicit intermediate computation, together with analysis of internal answer-token probabilities, we consistently find CoT unfaithfulness across languages and hint types, with an average rate of 95.9% across 8B--120B parameter models. We find that frontier models systematically exhibit strategic manipulation, including answer-switching, post-hoc rationalization, and procedural exploitation of hints, making their reasoning difficult to reliably monitor. These deceptive patterns remain especially pronounced in low-resource languages, revealing fundamental limitations in current CoT-based oversight. Our results show that CoT monitoring is fragile under linguistic distribution shift, providing a substantially weaker safety signal than English-only studies suggest. These findings motivate the development of more robust CoT monitors and complementary white-box monitoring techniques, particularly for mid- and low-resource languages. Our code is available \href{https://multilingual-cot-monitoring.github.io/}{\textcolor{blue}{here}}.
May 14, 2026cs.LG

Training on Documents About Monitoring Leads to CoT Obfuscation

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is one of the most promising tools we have for detecting model misbehavior, but its effectiveness depends on models faithfully externalizing their reasoning. Motivated by this vulnerability, we study whether monitor-aware models are capable of obfuscating their reasoning to evade detection. We use synthetic document finetuning to expose eight models to realistic pre-training-style documents describing a CoT monitor and find that monitor-aware models consistently achieve higher rates of undetected misbehavior compared to unaware controls. This effect is weaker but still present on a harder agentic task. We also show that CoT controllability, a model's ability to reshape its own reasoning trace under an imposed constraint, is closely correlated with obfuscation success across the eight models studied (r=0.800r=0.800, p=0.017p=0.017). Monitor-aware models placed under equal reinforcement learning optimization pressure also learn to reward-hack without triggering a CoT monitor substantially faster than unaware controls. Together, these results suggest that knowledge of monitoring combined with high CoT controllability poses a risk to CoT-based monitoring.
May 12, 2026cs.CR

CoT-Guard: Small Models for Strong Monitoring

Monitoring the chain-of-thought (CoT) of reasoning models is a promising approach for detecting covert misbehavior (i.e., hidden objectives) in code generation tasks. While large models (GPT-5, Gemini-3-Flash) can serve as effective CoT monitors, they are expensive to deploy due to the lengthy reasoning traces and high API cost, emphasizing the need for smaller, cheaper alternatives. Nevertheless, we find that current small models (4B--8B) struggle to detect hidden objectives despite access to the CoT, frequently misattributing them as part of the user query. To address this, we propose a post-training pipeline combining supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL), where SFT narrows the gap for in-domain tasks by distilling detection behavior from stronger monitors, and RL on hard and subtly crafted hidden objectives helps the model generalize to out-of-domain monitoring tasks. To validate this generalization, we evaluate under a realistic threat model motivated by practical supply-chain attacks, where the adversary is a third-party LLM router injecting hidden objectives into code-generation requests through either prompt manipulation or code manipulation attacks. To push beyond objectives that large monitors already saturate, we also introduce four new challenging tasks even for strong monitors. Finally, we introduce CoT-Guard, a 4B-parameter monitor that demonstrates superior generalization performance under both prompt and code manipulation attacks, achieving a G-mean^2 (i.e., TNR x TPR) of 75% and outperforming GPT-5.4 (56%), GPT-5-mini (41%), and Qwen3-32B (54%), while closing the gap to Gemini-3-Flash (83%). These results demonstrate that CoT-Guard provides a practical and cost-effective user-side defense, substantially improving hidden-objective detection while avoiding the deployment cost of large monitors.
May 7, 2026cs.AI

Behavior Cue Reasoning: Monitorable Reasoning Improves Efficiency and Safety through Oversight

Reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs) poses a challenge for oversight as many misaligned behaviors do not surface until reasoning concludes. To address this, we introduce Behavior Cue Reasoning for making LLM reasoning more controllable and monitorable. Behavior Cues are special token sequences that a model is trained to emit immediately before specific implicit and explicit behaviors, acting as dual purpose signal and control levers. When fine-tuning a weaker external monitor with Reinforcement Learning for reasoning oversight, a compressed view of only information surfaced by Behavior Cues is sufficient signal for the monitor to prune up to 50% of otherwise wasted reasoning tokens in complex math problem solving. When leveraged by an almost optimal rule-based monitor in an environment where excessive constraint violations results in failure, Behavior Cues allows for the recovery of safe actions from 80% of reasoning traces that would otherwise end with the proposal of an unsafe action, more than doubling the success rate from 46% to 96%. Through evaluation across two model families and three domains, we show that Behavior Cue Reasoning improves reasoning monitorability and controllability with no cost to performance. More broadly, our work progresses scalable oversight by demonstrating how the monitored model itself can be trained to reason more tractably to oversight. Code: https://github.com/christopherzc/behavior-cues
Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

Detecting and Suppressing Reward Hacking with Gradient Fingerprints

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) typically optimizes for outcome rewards without imposing constraints on intermediate reasoning. This leaves training susceptible to reward hacking, where models exploit loopholes (e.g., spurious patterns in training data) in the reward function to achieve high scores without solving the intended task. These reward-hacking behaviors are often implicit, as the intermediate chain-of-thought (CoT) may appear plausible on the surface, limiting the effectiveness of purely text-based monitoring. We propose Gradient Fingerprint (GRIFT), a method for detecting reward hacking using models' internal computations. Given a prompt and a model-generated CoT, GRIFT computes gradients of the CoT conditioned on the prompt and compresses them into a compact representation, which is then used to assess whether the CoT reflects reward hacking behavior. Across verifiable reasoning benchmarks spanning math, code, and logical reasoning, GRIFT substantially outperforms strong baselines, including CoT Monitor and TRACE, achieving over 25% relative improvement in detecting reward hacking behavior. Moreover, integrating GRIFT into the rejection fine-tuning pipeline for reasoning tasks reduces reward hacking and improves performance on the true task objective. Our results highlight a promising direction of leveraging gradient level representations for assessing the quality of CoT reasoning traces. Our code is available at: https://github.com/songtao-x/reward_hack.
Mar 30, 2026cs.AI

MonitorBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Chain-of-Thought Monitorability in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) can generate chains of thought (CoTs) that are not always causally responsible for their final outputs. When such a mismatch occurs, the CoT no longer faithfully reflects the actual reasons (i.e., decision-critical factors) driving the model's behavior, leading to the reduced CoT monitorability problem. This limits the use of CoTs for reliable oversight. However, a comprehensive and fully open-source benchmark for thoroughly evaluating CoT monitorability remains lacking. To address this gap, we propose MonitorBench, a systematic benchmark for evaluating CoT monitorability in LLMs. MonitorBench provides: (1) a diverse set of 1,514 test instances with carefully designed decision-critical factors across 19 tasks spanning 7 categories to characterize when CoTs can be used to monitor the factors driving LLM behavior; and (2) two prompting stress-test settings to quantify the extent to which CoT monitorability can be degraded. Extensive experiments show that CoT monitorability is a conditional property affected by the evaluated LLM, monitor LLM, and task characteristics. Across these factors, monitorability is higher when decision-critical factors shape the intermediate reasoning process, rather than merely influencing the final answer. Under stress-test prompting, most evaluated LLMs can intentionally reduce monitorability, mainly on tasks where decision-critical factors are not structurally required by the reasoning process. Overall, MonitorBench provides a basis for further research on AI control, reasoning faithfulness, stress-test monitorability, and monitoring scaffords. The code is available at https://github.com/ASTRAL-Group/MonitorBench.
Feb 15, 2026cs.AI

NEST: Nascent Encoded Steganographic Thoughts

Monitoring chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is a foundational safety technique for large language model agents; however, this oversight is compromised if models learn to conceal their reasoning. We explore steganographic CoT--where models hide secret reasoning within innocuous text--to inform risk assessment and deployment policies. Steganographic reasoning requires two skills in a single forward pass: computing an intermediate result, and embedding it into a coherent cover that answers an unrelated question. Drawing on our taxonomy of steganographic and non-steganographic CoT types, we systematically evaluate the limits of prompt-elicited steganographic CoT capability across 34 models, ranging from past generations to the current frontier. We measure monitor evasion, refusal rates, encoding fidelity, and hidden task accuracy across five datasets, comparing against plain reasoning, direct answer, and filler-token baselines. The two experiments isolate the two sub-skills: a reasoning tasks sweep tests joint reason-and-embed, while a counting task hands the model a known numerical sequence and tests embedding alone--a necessary precondition for stego reasoning. Current frontier models cannot sustain joint reason-and-embed: a paired McNemar comparison shows the steganographic channel is dominated by an filler-token baseline on every (model, family) cell. The encoding-only floor, by contrast, is cleared--Claude Opus~4.5 reaches 92% per-number partial accuracy on 4-digit sequences and saturates at 100% exact-match on length-8 single-digit sequences--establishing that the binding constraint on stego CoT is the joint reasoning-plus-encoding load, not raw channel capacity. Our findings underscore the need for continuous evaluation of steganographic risk and provide a methodology to preemptively detect and evaluate hidden reasoning that might empower misaligned scheming and deceptive behavior.
Date pendingcs.CR

A False Average: Pooled CoT-Monitor Accuracy Conceals a Reasoning-Dependent Fragility

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitors are reported by their aggregate accuracy on a pool of reward hacks. We show that this number is a false average. On Terminal Wrench, about 77% of hacks are given away by the actions alone, and the monitor's pooled accuracy is dominated by them; on the remaining 23%, where the reasoning is the only signal, the same monitor is fragile. We expose the fragility with a controlled attack: we rewrite only the agent's reasoning to read as good-faith engineering, leaving every command and output byte-identical, so the exploit is unchanged. One gradient-free rewrite drops a held-out monitor's catch rate on that subset from about 95% to between 4 and 11%, while the pooled rate falls only about 25 points, the subset's share of the pool times its collapse. The rewrite stays truthful about what happened and lies only about intent, so a monitor that reads only the trace recovers little, even when warned about the attack, and only information from outside the trace helps much. The attack transfers across monitor and agent families, and the dataset's own hack labels show the same gradient with no monitor in the definition. Live agents on 27 tasks produce hollow hacks unaided, but a monitor calibrated on each model's own honest solves catches nearly all of them (AUC at least 0.996 under the narration instruction, 0.97 without it); a small residual has the blindspot's shape, low scores on both actions and narration, though none falls below the calibrated threshold. A linear probe on a surrogate monitor's activations out-reads its verdict on the obfuscated hacks (AUC up to 0.98), but a behavioral control shows this edge does not, by itself, mean the monitor knows more than it says. Monitor accuracy should be reported on the reasoning-dependent subset, where the defense is supportive.