Ensemble

When a model knows when it does not know, many possibilities emerge. The first question is how to enable a model to recognize that it does not know. A promising approach is to use confidence, computed from the model's internal signals, to reflect its ignorance. Prior work in specific domains has shown that calibration can provide reliable confidence estimates. In this work, we propose a simple, effective, and universal training-free method that applies to both vision and language models, performing model calibration, cascading, and data cleaning to better exploit a model's ability to recognize when it does not know. We first highlight two key empirical observations: higher confidence corresponds to higher accuracy within a single model, and models calibrated on the validation set remain calibrated on a held-out test set. These findings empirically establish the reliability and comparability of calibrated confidence. Building on this, we introduce two applications: (1) model cascading with calibrated advantage routing and (2) data cleaning based on model ensemble. Using the routing signal derived from the comparability of calibrated confidences, we cascade large and small models to improve efficiency with almost no compromise in accuracy, and we further cascade two models of comparable scale to achieve performance beyond either model alone. Leveraging multiple experts and their calibrated confidences, we design a simple yet effective data-cleaning method that balances precision and detection rate to identify mislabeled samples in ImageNet and Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) datasets. Our results demonstrate that enabling models to recognize when they do not know is a practical step toward more efficient, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit complementary strengths arising from differences in pretraining data, model architectures, and decoding behaviors. Inference-time ensembling provides a practical way to combine these capabilities without retraining. However, existing ensemble approaches suffer from fundamental limitations. Most rely on fixed fusion granularity, which lacks the flexibility required for mid-generation adaptation and fails to adapt to different generation characteristics across tasks. To address these challenges, we propose AdaFuse, an adaptive ensemble decoding framework that dynamically selects semantically appropriate fusion units during generation. Rather than committing to a fixed granularity, AdaFuse adjusts fusion behavior on the fly based on the decoding context, with words serving as basic building blocks for alignment. To be specific, we introduce an uncertainty-based criterion to decide whether to apply ensembling at each decoding step. Under confident decoding states, the model continues generation directly. In less certain states, AdaFuse invokes a diversity-aware scaling strategy to explore alternative candidate continuations and inform ensemble decisions. This design establishes a synergistic interaction between adaptive ensembling and test-time scaling, where ensemble decisions guide targeted exploration, and the resulting diversity in turn strengthens ensemble quality. Experiments on open-domain question answering, arithmetic reasoning, and machine translation demonstrate that AdaFuse consistently outperforms strong ensemble baselines, achieving an average relative improvement of 6.88%. The code is available at https://github.com/CCM0111/AdaFuse.

Input transformation-based attacks improve adversarial transferability by aggregating gradients over transformed inputs. Existing analyses mainly explain their efficacy from image diversity, semantic preservation, attention variance or hypothesis space augmentation, yet overlook the critical role of model frontend responses. In this paper, we revisit transformation-based attacks from an implicit ensemble perspective: each transformation can be viewed as a pre-processing operator before the surrogate model, inducing a distinct frontend response for gradient aggregation. Based on this view, we propose FRO, a Frontend Response-Oriented input transformation method that enriches such responses through two complementary operators. The Local Scaling Operator perturbs local content sampling via block-wise stretch-and-shrink operations, while the Projection Operator modifies global spatial organization through coherent perspective deformation. Together, they produce structured transformed views to optimize transferable adversarial perturbations. Experiments on an ImageNet subset show that FRO consistently improves black-box transferability across diverse CNN and Vision Transformer models. We further analyze the effect of implicit ensemble size and evaluate different transformation-based methods under a unified ensemble scale, demonstrating the superiority of designing input transformations from the perspective of front-end response ensembles.

Wi-Fi sensing is a leading technology for Human Activity Recognition (HAR), offering a non-intrusive and cost-effective solution for healthcare and smart environments. Despite its potential, existing methods struggle with domain shift issues, often failing to generalize to unseen environments due to overfitting. This paper proposes IBIS, a robust ensemble framework combining Inception-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) for feature extraction and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for classification of Doppler signatures. The proposed architecture specifically targets generalization capabilities. Experimental results on multiple datasets show that IBIS achieves 95.40% accuracy, delivering a 7.58% performance gain compared to standard architectures in cross-scenario evaluations on external datasets. The analysis confirms that IBIS effectively mitigates environmental dependency in Wi-Fi-based HAR.

Unsupervised tabular anomaly detection is a critical task with applications spanning offensive language detection, network security, and quality control. Despite extensive research, existing unsupervised anomaly detection methods still face fundamental challenges including conflicting distributional assumptions, computational inefficiency, and difficulty handling different anomaly types. To address these problems, we propose ISER (Isolation-based Spherical Ensemble Representations) that extends existing isolation-based methods by using hypersphere radii as a monotonic transformation of local density characteristics while maintaining linear time and constant space complexity w.r.t. the dataset size. ISER constructs ensemble representations where hypersphere radii encode local sparsity through a monotonic transformation of density: smaller radii correspond to dense regions while larger radii correspond to sparse regions. We introduce a novel similarity-based scoring method that measures pattern consistency by comparing ensemble representations against a theoretical anomaly reference pattern. Additionally, we enhance the performance of Isolation Forest by using ISER and adapting the scoring function to address axis-parallel bias and local anomaly detection limitations. Comprehensive experiments on 20 real-world datasets demonstrate ISER's competitive performance over 12 SOTA methods.

Recent large-scale Vision Language Action (VLA) models have shown superior performance in robotic manipulation tasks guided by natural language. However, current VLA models suffer from two drawbacks: (i) generation of massive tokens leading to high inference latency and increased training cost, and (ii) insufficient utilization of generated actions resulting in potential performance loss. To address these issues, we develop a training framework to finetune VLA models for generating significantly fewer action tokens with high parallelism, effectively reducing inference latency and training cost. Furthermore, we introduce an inference optimization technique with a novel voting-based ensemble strategy to combine current and previous action predictions, improving the utilization of generated actions and overall performance. Our results demonstrate that we achieve superior performance compared with state-of-the-art VLA models, achieving significantly higher success rates and 39$\times$ faster inference than OpenVLA with 46 Hz throughput on edge platforms, demonstrating practical deployability. The code is available at https://github.com/LukeLIN-web/VOTE.

Deep Q-Networks (DQN) can suffer from overestimation bias because bootstrapped targets use a maximisation operation over noisy value estimates. Ensemble-based methods and multi-step methods have each been used to improve the stability and sample efficiency of value-based reinforcement learning, but their interaction remains less well understood. This paper introduces Ensemble Elastic DQN (EEDQN), a value-based reinforcement learning algorithm that combines adaptive elastic multi-step returns with ensemble-based target aggregation. EEDQN replaces the clustering-based state similarity test used in earlier Elastic Step DQN with a lightweight Q-value difference rule, making adaptive return construction simpler to apply in discrete control settings. The method then applies horizon dependent ensemble aggregation, one-step targets use the ensemble mean, while longer elastic returns use the ensemble minimum. This design aims to reduce extreme optimistic bootstrap estimates without making every update uniformly conservative. We evaluate EEDQN on five MinAtar environments against DQN, Double DQN, Averaged DQN, MaxMin DQN, and Elastic Step DQN. EEDQN achieves the highest final return in four of the five environments and remains competitive with conservative ensemble baselines. An aggregation rule ablation shows that the best degree of conservatism is environment dependent, suggesting that adaptive return length and ensemble aggregation interact in non-trivial ways.

Real-time safety assessment is critical for ensuring the reliable operation of complex dynamic systems. However, obtaining full safety labels in real time is often prohibitively expensive, resulting in a challenging mixed-feedback scenario dominated by partial feedback, especially under concept drift. Furthermore, existing online ensemble methods typically rely on heuristic weight allocation, lacking provable performance guarantees under such limited-feedback conditions. To address these challenges, we propose PB-OEL, a performance-bounded online ensemble learning framework designed for real-time safety assessment under mixed feedback. At the ensemble level, a theoretical framework is established to bound the performance of the ensemble classifier relative to its base classifiers across varying feedback ratios. By formally defining the form of expert advice, the bound guarantees that the ensemble outperforms any individual base classifier over a sufficiently large data stream. At the base-classifier level, a penalty-based update strategy is introduced, enabling base models to explicitly leverage misclassified samples rather than simply discarding them. Extensive experiments on the real-world Jiaolong manned submersible dataset demonstrate that PB-OEL maintains robust predictive performance and outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs) are foundational Large Language Models (LLMs) for text generation. However, individual LLMs often produce inconsistent outputs and exhibit biases, limiting their representation of diverse language patterns. The closed-source nature of many powerful LLMs further restricts industry applications due to data privacy concerns. Inspired by successes in text generation, LLM ensemble techniques are now increasingly explored for code generation. This article reviews these emerging ensemble approaches to enhance understanding, encourage further research, and promote practical implementation in both text and code generation. We categorize LLM ensembles into seven main methods - weight merging, knowledge fusion, mixture-of-experts, reward ensemble, output ensemble, routing, and cascading - analyzing capabilities of those approaches. Our findings highlight key benefits such as improved diversity representation, enhanced output quality, and greater application flexibility. These insights aid model selection for real-world tasks and crucially, lay groundwork for extending ensemble strategies to multimodal LLMs.

Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) traditionally rely on final-layer loss for finetuning and final-layer representations for predictions, potentially overlooking the predictive power embedded in late layers. Interpretability tools such as the logit lens show that late-layer representations already carry largely formed, task-relevant predictions; here we ask whether that observation can be turned into an actionable training signal. We find that focusing tuning effort on these layers can yield losses comparable to those of the final layer, with complementary test-time behaviour. Building on this, we introduce a tuning framework, Mixture-of-Depths Ensemble (MoDE), which treats the late layers as an ensemble that contributes to the final logits through learned routing weights. MoDE can be applied on top of any existing tuning method (e.g., LoRA) and, in our experiments, modestly improves reasoning performance at a small parameter overhead. We present MoDE as a mechanism study showing that late-layer logits can be made directly useful for tuning, and that they can substitute for substantially larger trainable modules with comparable performance.

Selecting an appropriate classification algorithm for a given data set remains a challenging problem in data mining and machine learning. Existing algorithm recommendation models are typically trained with individual learners and rely on only one type of meta-feature, which may limit their ability to capture the diverse characteristics of classification problems. This paper proposes a multi-view ensemble meta-learning framework for classification algorithm recommendation. The framework constructs base recommendation models from different combinations of heterogeneous meta-feature groups and combines them through an accuracy- and diversity-aware ensemble strategy. The main focus of this work is empirical: we evaluate the proposed method on 1,090 benchmark classification problems derived from 84 public data sets, using 13 widely used candidate classification algorithms and five types of meta-features. The experimental results show that the proposed ensemble recommendation method consistently improves ranking loss, average precision, and top-ranked recommendation precision over individual recommendation models. These results suggest that combining complementary meta-feature views is an effective strategy for robust classification algorithm recommendation.