Extrapolation

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

We study how AI agents form expectations and trade in experimental asset markets. Using a simulated open-call auction populated by autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, we document three main findings. First, AI agents exhibit classic behavioral patterns: a pronounced disposition effect and recency-weighted extrapolative beliefs. Second, these individual-level patterns aggregate into equilibrium dynamics that replicate classic experimental findings (Smith et al., 1988), including the predictive power of excess demand for future prices and the positive relationship between disagreement and trading volume. Third, by analyzing the agents' reasoning text through a twenty-mechanism scoring framework, we show that targeted prompt interventions causally amplify or suppress specific behavioral mechanisms, significantly altering the magnitude of market bubbles.

Developing neural operators that accurately predict the behavior of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) across unseen parameter regimes is crucial for robust generalization in scientific and engineering applications. In practical applications, variations in physical parameters induce distribution shifts between training and prediction regimes, making extrapolation a central challenge. As a result, the way parameters are incorporated into neural operator models plays a key role in their ability to generalize, particularly when state and parameter representations are entangled. In this work, we introduce the Late Fusion Neural Operator, an architecture that disentangles learning state dynamics from parameter effects, improving predictive performance both within and beyond the training distribution. Our approach combines neural operators for learning latent state representations with sparse regression to incorporate parameter information in a structured manner. Across four benchmark PDEs including advection, Burgers, and both 1D and 2D reaction-diffusion equations, the proposed method consistently outperforms Fourier Neural Operator and CAPE-FNO. Late Fusion Neural Operators achieve consistently the best performance in all experiments, with an average RMSE reduction of 72.9% in-domain and 71.8% out-domain compared to the second-best method. These results demonstrate strong generalization across both in-domain and out-domain parameter regimes.

Accurate Earth system prediction requires state inference from incomplete observations, but conventional two-stage data assimilation (DA) is computationally prohibitive because repeated PDE-based ensemble forecasts, observation updates, and intermediate data movement limit ensemble size at high resolution. We introduce STORM, a one-stage generative AI framework that reformulates DA as diffusion-based Bayesian posterior sampling, replacing online PDE ensemble forecasts with scalable AI inference. It further combines a spatiotemporal transformer with a global-attention algorithm that reduces complexity from quadratic to linear through scalable gradient propagation, enabling high-resolution, long-context Earth modeling. STORM scales to 74,400 GPUs on Frontier with 96--99% strong-scaling efficiency and up to 6 ExaFLOPs sustained BF16 throughput, while enabling 32,768-member ensembles for uncertainty quantification in 34 seconds on 4,096 GPUs. It scales to 20 billion spatiotemporal tokens and 177,000 temporal frames. Hurricane tracking and long-term climate reanalysis demonstrate improved accuracy, including benefits from longer temporal context and recovery of temperature extremes missed by forecast-only predictions.

Generalizing skill policies to novel conditions remains a key challenge in robot learning. Imitation learning methods, while data-efficient, are largely confined to the training region and consistently fail on input data outside it, leading to unpredictable policy failures. Alternatively, transfer learning approaches offer methods for trajectory generation robust to both changes in environment and tasks, but they remain data-hungry and lack accuracy in zero-shot generalization. We address these challenges in the context of task inversion learning and propose a novel joint learning approach to achieve accurate and efficient knowledge transfer. Our method constructs a common representation of the forward and inverse tasks, and leverages auxiliary forward demonstrations from novel configurations to successfully execute the corresponding inverse tasks, without any direct supervision. We demonstrate the extrapolation capabilities of our framework through ablation studies and experiments in simulated and real-world environments that require complex manipulation skills with a diverse set of objects and tools, where we outperform diffusion-based and multimodal VAE alternatives.

The ability of Flow Matching (FM) to model complex conditional distributions has established it as the state-of-the-art for prediction tasks (e.g., robotics, weather forecasting). However, deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by a critical extrapolation hazard: driven by smoothness biases, flow models yield plausible outputs even for off-manifold conditions, resulting in silent failures indistinguishable from valid predictions. In this work, we introduce Diverging Flows, a novel approach that enables a single model to simultaneously perform conditional generation and native extrapolation detection by structurally enforcing inefficient transport for off-manifold inputs. We evaluate our method on synthetic manifolds, cross-domain style transfer, and weather temperature forecasting, demonstrating that it achieves effective detection of extrapolations without compromising predictive fidelity or inference latency. These results establish Diverging Flows as a robust solution for trustworthy flow models, paving the way for reliable deployment in domains such as medicine, robotics, and climate science.

Hydrogen crossover is a critical safety and efficiency constraint in high-pressure polymer electrolyte membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE), but accurate prediction remains difficult because data are limited, transport physics are strongly coupled, and industrial operation requires reliable extrapolation beyond observed conditions. This study develops a hard-constraint physics-residual network (PR-Net) for hydrogen crossover prediction in PEMWE and compares it with a purely data-driven neural network (NN) and a soft-constraint physics-informed neural network (PINN). PR-Net embeds Henry's, Fick's, and Faraday's laws as a deterministic backbone and learns only a residual correction for unmodelled nonlinear effects. The benchmark includes 184 observations from eight peer-reviewed sources across six membrane types, covering 1-200 bar, $25-85°C$, and $0.05-5.0 A cm^{-2}$. PR-Net achieves $R^2 = 99.57 \pm 0.16$, with 9-fold lower prediction variability than NN and PINN. In pressure-axis extrapolation, PR-Net attains $R^2 = 94.02 \pm 0.92$ at 200 bar, 2.5 times beyond the training pressure range, compared with $68.06 \pm 5.52$ for PINN and $58.00 \pm 8.60$ for NN (p < 0.001). Residual analysis indicates that the learned correction captures part of the high-pressure gas-phase non-ideality and recovers a transport-regime transition near $0.23 A cm^{-2}$ between Fickian diffusion-dominated and Faradaic production-dominated transport. With a computation time of $1.08 \pm 0.34 ms$ on low-power embedded hardware, PR-Net provides a practical framework for real-time crossover monitoring, adaptive process control, and safer high-pressure green-hydrogen operation.

Off-policy reinforcement learning suffers from extrapolation errors when a learned policy selects actions that are weakly supported in the replay buffer. In this study, we address this issue by drawing an analogy to static friction. From this perspective, the replay buffer is represented as a smooth, low-dimensional action manifold, where the support directions correspond to the tangential component, while the normal component captures the dominant first-order extrapolation error. This decomposition reveals an intrinsic anisotropy in value sensitivity that naturally induces a stability condition analogous to a friction threshold. To mitigate deviations toward unsupported actions, we propose Frictional Q-Learning, an off-policy algorithm that encodes supported actions as tangent directions using a contrastive variational autoencoder. We further show that an orthonormal basis of the orthogonal complement corresponds to normal components under mild local isometry assumptions. Extensive empirical results on standard continuous-control benchmarks consistently demonstrate robust and stable performance compared with competitive baselines.