Extrapolation

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language model (LLM) agents to improve decisions using interaction history, yet it remains unclear whether such improvement reflects refined internal reasoning or mere extrapolation of statistical patterns. To disentangle these mechanisms, we study LLM agents in multi-agent incomplete-information games that require recursive belief reasoning. By constructing a public goods game and manipulating the statistical structure of historical feedback, we evaluate decision quality against a history-independent rational expectations equilibrium (REE) benchmark. Our experiments reveal that when historical statistical patterns are disrupted, the benefits of longer context largely vanish, degrading decision quality to the no-context baseline in a way sharply amplified by stronger strategic interdependence. These results suggest that, in such strategic environments, ICL behavior is more consistent with statistical extrapolation than with strategic reasoning. Our work extends the mechanistic study of ICL to strategic multi-agent settings, introduces REE as a diagnostic tool for distinguishing reasoning from extrapolation, and provides a reusable framework for probing the boundaries of LLM reasoning in recursive belief tasks.

Repeated-sampling evaluations increasingly extrapolate pass@k far beyond the number n of samples collected per problem. We show that, in the pooled/random-task conditional-Binomial model, fixed-n success counts identify only the n free moments of the latent per-task success distribution. Consequently, direct pass@k is identified for k <= n, but generic extrapolated pass@k, tail exponents, and tail constants are not identified for k > n, even with arbitrarily many exchangeable tasks at the same rollout budget. This is stronger than the observation that the usual estimator is undefined beyond n: it characterizes the information missing from the fixed-depth count-law experiment. We give exact count-law-preserving constructions with incompatible extrapolations, state the exceptional unique-extension case, and compute sharp population identified intervals through Hausdorff principal representations. On the public 10,000-rollout-per-problem release of Brown et al., counterfactual n = 16 evaluations leave failure at k = 1000 ambiguous by factors from 1.5 to over 2,600 across four MATH/GSM8K/CodeContests configurations. The calibration shows that intermediate-scale failure share alone does not determine width. Our result does not reject parametric inference-time scaling laws; it supplies the nonparametric baseline against which their assumptions can be evaluated. We give an exact, conservative one-coordinate finite-task confidence certificate and a reporting standard separating direct estimates, identified sets, and model-conditioned forecasts.

Although the impact resistance of concrete has been studied extensively, a framework linking mesoscale heterogeneity to full-field stress-tensor prediction has been lacking. Data were generated with a full-scale aggregate-resolved LS-DYNA model (projectile diameter 45 mm, mass 2.13 kg, target diameter 500 mm x thickness 200 mm, mesh 10 mm), verified against published penetration experiments (Frew 2006, Hanchak 1992, Forrestal 1996) by configuration similarity. The dataset contains six-component stress-tensor fields on the X-Z mid-plane for 400 cases (4 impact velocities x 100 aggregate seeds). Three contributions are reported. First, case-by-case verification of the terminal penetration state delimited the rest-state validity of penetration depth and anchored reliable observables to rigid-body motion and field-level stress evolution. Second, a field-level graph neural operator surrogate learned the time-varying stress-field evolution and evaluated cross-velocity leave-one-out extrapolation. Third, the full-scale, aggregate-resolved, cross-velocity, per-seed database was established as a reproducible resource. Cases at 100, 135 and 200 m/s still moved at window end (negative velocity, i.e. rebound), and only one 165 m/s case arrested. Penetration depth is therefore not reported as a rest-state scalar except for the single arrested case (69.33 mm); nose-node depth differences were confirmed as numerical artifacts of displacement integration after erosion. The single-step relative L2 error was 0.6977, reported honestly; autoregressive rollout from frame 11 to 39 took about 144 ms, a speedup of about 3.6x10^3 to 4.3x10^3 relative to single-core LS-DYNA, reported as application value. Validation is bounded by configuration similarity and field-level self-consistency; the framework is a simulation-trained decision-support method within the studied parameter space.

Machine learning models used in engineering are typically trained within limited operating ranges, yet reliable predictions are often required beyond these domains. Consequently, the primary challenge is extrapolation rather than interpolation. Rigorous validation is hindered by the scarcity of data outside the training range. To address this limitation, a novel extrapolation framework is integrated with established machine learning architectures to enable accurate and physically consistent predictions beyond the training domain. The framework is established by systematically evaluating two physics-guided architectures: a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network and a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). A classical one-dimensional transient diffusion problem is adopted as a benchmark because its exact analytical solution provides unlimited, reliable data across the spatio-temporal domain, enabling rigorous quantitative validation. The problem is particularly challenging because the solution evolves from an initial singularity through a strongly nonlinear transient regime before approaching a steady-state linear profile. When training data are confined to an intermediate portion of this evolution, backward extrapolation toward the singularity becomes especially demanding. To improve reliability, physics-guided coordinate transformations, boundary-aware learning strategies, and stability-enhancing temporal marching are incorporated. Extrapolation is evaluated using a train-predict-validate-extend strategy, in which validated predictions are recursively added to the training set to progressively extend the prediction horizon. The results demonstrate accurate and physically consistent predictions beyond the training domain, highlighting the framework's potential for engineering applications where data availability is limited.

Standard open-set node classification methods rely on the homophily assumption, where connected nodes share labels. However, real-world graphs are often heterophilic, exposing the limitations of current methods and posing new challenges to open-set node classification. On the one hand, cross-class connectivity causes representations from different known or unknown classes to become intertwined after aggregation, undermining their discriminative capacity. On the other hand, structural mixture invalidates threshold-based open-set methods and cross-class feature interpolation, leading to unreliable unknown-class rejection. To address these challenges, we propose HOPE, a Heterophily-aware Open-set node classification method with Pseudo-Extrapolation. To adapt open-set graph neural networks (GNNs) to heterophilic scenarios, HOPE uses a structure-augmented feature initialization layer to capture multi-hop structural patterns. Meanwhile, we design a trustworthy neighborhood aggregation mechanism for standard GNNs to dynamically filter noisy cross-class neighbors. To enhance unknown-class rejection, we introduce a heterophily-guided pseudo-extrapolation strategy. It dynamically maintains known-class centers and extrapolates along cross-class neighborhood displacement directions, synthesizing pseudo-unknown proxies near structurally ambiguous regions. Finally, we optimize the network with joint classification and logit margin regularization, routing synthetic proxies into a dedicated rejection slot without imposing geometric margin constraints in the representation space. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets show that HOPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models, validating its effectiveness, robustness, and efficiency.

Online 3D reconstruction models perform poorly on long videos. This happens because regressing poses relative to a fixed first-frame anchor forces extrapolation far beyond the training distribution. Small drifts accumulate and amplify into significant geometric collapse. However, we observe that per-frame depth remains stable throughout this failure. The backbone's local geometry remains intact; only the global pose head breaks down. Motivated by this decoupling, we introduce Scal3R. This approach reformulates online reconstruction as multi-reference relative pose querying. We use lightweight learnable tokens, which make up about ~1% of the parameters, and inject them into a completely frozen backbone via asymmetric attention. This setup queries poses relative to multiple past keyframes. An online pose-graph optimization system with loop closure suppresses long-range drift. Scal3R reaches convergence in 8 hours on a single GPU. It reduces the average ATE by over 60% on KITTI compared to the online baseline. It also achieves state-of-the-art performance across Virtual KITTI, Sintel, TUM-Dynamic, ScanNet, and 7-Scenes. Project page: https://linjohnss.github.io/scal3r/

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have demonstrated exceptional performance in high-fidelity image and video generation. To alleviate their massive computational overhead, temporal feature caching has been proposed to bypass redundant computations. However, existing cache-then-forecast methods driven by derivative-based polynomials often cause severe quality degradation under high acceleration due to unstable long-step predictions. To address this bottleneck, we propose Barycentric Rational Forecasting with Chebyshev Enhancement (BRACE). Motivated by the observation that DiT feature trajectories are globally smooth yet frequently exhibit sharp irregularities and local non-smoothness, BRACE shifts the paradigm from derivative-driven polynomial extrapolation to feature-driven rational forecasting. Specifically, it maintains a local sliding window to cache sparse historical features and leverages adapted Chebyshev weights to formulate a barycentric rational function, directly aggregating these raw features to ensure numerical stability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that BRACE achieves state-of-the-art quality-efficiency trade-offs across various DiT architectures with negligible computational overhead.

Transformers do not merely lack data on some Boolean extrapolation tasks; they generalize in a systematically wrong way. Recent work on generalization on the unseen has shown that, despite fitting the observed domain, Transformers often extrapolate according to a simpler minimum-degree interpolator rather than the true target function. These Boolean tasks are not practical applications, but controlled stress tests for understanding Transformer inductive bias. We ask whether this failure mode can be corrected by injecting explicit structural priors into attention. Existing structured-initialization methods alter Transformer inductive bias indirectly, by choosing query and key projections whose similarity scores approximate a desired attention pattern. However, we find that when applied to Boolean extrapolation, these QK-based priors can be rapidly overwritten during training and fail to change the learned extrapolation rule. We propose a simpler alternative: initialize the additive attention mask directly. Unlike standard hard masks used for causality or locality attention, our mask is a finite, learnable attention-logit bias initialized from task-level interaction structure. This separates the structural prior from content-dependent attention scores, allowing it to persist throughout optimization. On Boolean reasoning tasks, mask-based initialization achieves near-perfect extrapolation where vanilla and QK-initialized Transformers remain trapped by the default inductive bias. The same mechanism also improves low-data arithmetic performance and remains competitive on vision and language benchmarks. These results show that attention masks can serve not only as architectural constraints, but as a simple substrate for encoding persistent inductive bias in Transformers.

Recent autoregressive video diffusion methods are increasingly built upon Self Forcing, where the student is trained on histories produced by its own rollout rather than ground-truth video contexts. This reduces exposure bias, but the historical key-value cache is still used by future frames only as frozen rollout state. As a result, future losses cannot supervise how earlier generated latents should be written into more useful keys and values for later video-latent generation. We call this the historical context-gradient gap. We propose Self Gradient Forcing (SGF), a two-pass training strategy that restores this missing supervision signal without backpropagating through the full serial rollout. Pass 1 performs a no-gradient autoregressive rollout matching inference and, at a sampled denoising exit step, records both the self-generated context and the noisy latents fed to the model. Pass 2 performs parallel context-gradient reconstruction for the recorded exit step. The generated context is used as stop-gradient clean-latent input, while the model recomputes the context KV representations and future-to-context causal attention. Thus, SGF provides the missing memory-writing supervision within the native autoregressive training objective, using losses on future video latents to train the model to encode context into more effective causal memory. Across extensive long-horizon frame-wise and chunk-wise experiments under different initializations, SGF achieves stronger native long-video extrapolation than Self Forcing, especially in subject identity, background/layout consistency, and temporal stability. Remarkably, using only a 5-second training window, SGF can extrapolate to videos lasting several minutes. Code and models will be released to advance research on autoregressive video generation.

Transformers with relative positional encodings often extrapolate to sequences longer than those seen during training, whereas transformers with learned absolute encodings typically do not. This is a robust empirical regularity, and the explanations offered for it so far are chiefly about expressivity, that is, about whether a length-generalizing solution exists. We give an optimization explanation. On a minimal fixed-offset retrieval task that isolates positional selection, the gap is governed by the implicit bias of the trained attention head: among the many solutions that fit short sequences, which one gradient descent actually selects. We prove that rotary encodings make the attention logit a function of relative offset alone, an exact equivariance, so whatever selection rule is learned at training lengths is reproduced verbatim at every longer length. Learned absolute encodings instead leave out-of-range positions unconstrained, and the trained head pins to a fixed absolute position inside the training range. We characterize the learned rotary rule as a low-rank ``carrier'' kernel aligned with the target offset, and we derive the resulting graceful accuracy decay as an attention-dilution law; both predictions are confirmed across seeds and offsets. A linear-attention control shows the mechanism is specific to softmax: without normalization, training selects a min-norm interpolant that does not extrapolate. The phenomenon, the equivariance, and the carrier all transfer to a multi-layer, multi-head transformer trained on a full-sequence length-generalization task. The account connects the implicit bias of attention, implicit bias for extrapolation in recurrent models, and the learning side of the RASP-L conjecture.

Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.

Robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery (MIS) critically depends on reliable endoscopic perception for navigation and safety. However, conventional endoscopes provide only a limited field of view, leaving large portions of the surrounding anatomy unobserved. Recent neural rendering approaches, such as Neural Radiance Fields and 3D Gaussian Splatting, enable novel view synthesis from endoscopic videos, but their reliance on sparse observations often leads to severe artifacts when extrapolating beyond the training trajectory. In this work, we propose ExtraGS, a framework for enhancing endoscopic view extrapolation through diffusion-guided 3D Gaussian Splatting. Starting from an initial reconstruction, we introduce an uncertainty-guided virtual camera sampling strategy to actively explore blind spots and maximize information gain. The rendered views from these sampled locations are refined using a diffusion model to recover plausible anatomical structures, producing pseudo-observations that guide further optimization. To prevent the generated content from degrading reliable regions, we adopt a confidence-weighted fine-tuning strategy when incorporating these pseudo-observations. Extensive experiments on multiple public endoscopic datasets demonstrate that ExtraGS significantly reduces extrapolation artifacts and achieves state-of-the-art performance in endoscopic novel view synthesis.

Temporal point processes (TPPs) have widespread applications across various domains. Compared to modeling the conditional intensity of a TPP, modeling its cumulative conditional intensity function (CCIF) improves computational efficiency and eliminates numerical approximation errors. However, current CCIF parameterizations uniformly rely on Monotone Neural Networks (MNNs), which we identify as suffering from three structural deadlocks--convexity restrictions, saturation limits, and violations of CCIF modeling requirements--that fundamentally restrict their representational capacity for complex temporal dynamics. To resolve these bottlenecks, this paper proposes a novel framework called Monotone Alternating Splines (MAS). By leveraging distinct interpolation and extrapolation components, MAS provides a flexible and efficient framework for modeling CCIFs. Theoretically, MAS's interpolation provides strong fitting accuracy, while its extrapolation supports robust generalization, reducing the irreducible approximation gaps of MNNs. Extensive experiments show that MAS achieves superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Standard MipNeRF360-style 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) evaluation holds out every N-th frame -- but these frames have trained neighbors on both sides, so the metric measures near-trajectory interpolation rather than spatial generalization. We introduce a fair matched-count protocol that isolates this effect: both arms train on the same number of images and differ only in whether the holdout is spread evenly (interpolation) or forms a contiguous spatial sector (extrapolation). Our primary finding is a large, consistent interpolation-extrapolation gap of 3~12dB -- several times the differences typically reported between competing methods. The gap is robust to training noise, is in two cases large enough to flip a method ranking under multi-seed confirmation, and -- crucially -- persists across three representation families, including a non-Gaussian volumetric neural radiance field (NeRF), so it reflects spatial coverage rather than any one representation. Diagnostically, it is dominated by a diffuse/geometry-proxy component and tracks each view's angular distance to its nearest training view, a zero-cost signal that also guides capture planning; loss-side regularization yields only marginal gains. Standard holdouts remain useful for near-trajectory rendering but should not, alone, be read as evidence of spatial generalization. Prior work notes protocol sensitivity; ours is, to our knowledge, the first to combine matched-count paired holdout, cross-representation quantification, and a diagnostic analysis Table 1. We describe a spatial-holdout benchmark toolkit with standardized splits and baselines for 16 scenes, which we are preparing for public release.

Rapid prototyping of algorithms is a critical step in modern machine learning. Most algorithms exploit linear algebra, creating a need for lightweight numerical routines which -- while potentially sub-optimal for the task at hand -- can be rapidly implemented. For the numerical solution of ill-conditioned linear systems of equations, the standard solution for prototyping is Tikhonov-regularised inversion using a nugget. However, selection of the size of nugget is often difficult, and the use of data-adaptive procedures precludes automatic differentiation, introducing instabilities into end-to-end training. Further, while data-adaptive procedures perform multiple linear solves to select the size of nugget, only the result of one such solve is returned, which we argue is wasteful. This paper aims to circumvent the above difficulties, presenting autonugget; a Python package for automatic and stable numerical solution of linear systems suitable for rapid prototyping, and fully compatible with automatic differentiation using JAX. autonugget combines multiple linear solves using Richardson extrapolation to determine the solution of the ill-conditioned system, improving in accuracy over approximations based on a single nugget.

Looped Transformers, which repeatedly apply a shared transformer block, are an architecturally natural fit for variable-length algorithmic tasks. Although they can exhibit strong length generalization beyond the length of training sequences, this behavior is brittle, yielding high out-of-distribution (OOD) variance, even across well-performing in-distribution solutions. We trace this variance to the spurious correlation in simple algorithmic tasks between sequence length and number of loops. Introducing stochasticity into the number of loops during training sharply reduces OOD variance and stabilizes predictions across inference-time loop counts. To improve upon heuristic randomization schemes, we further analyze RL-Halting as a learned stochastic schedule and find that it generally improves the accuracy-stability trade-off. Across binary addition, Dyck-1, Unique Set, and Copy, learned stochastic stopping often improves this trade-off but can also stabilize a suboptimal computation. Our work suggests that "when to stop" should be treated as a training-time design choice, not merely an inference-time computation-allocation rule.

Learning-rate transfer can reduce the cost of training large language models: instead of sweeping learning rates at target scale, practitioners extrapolate from smaller runs. Existing approaches often assume that the optimal learning rate follows a log-linear scaling law in data scale and model size. We carefully examine and evaluate this scaling law. In our empirical study of GPT-2--style models from 22M to 707M parameters trained on 5B to 100B tokens, the optimal learning rate develops upward curvature at larger scales, leading to inaccurate extrapolation. We find that this curvature largely disappears when learning rates are replaced by effective learning rate (the step size in normalized weight space), and when data $D$ extrapolation is used instead of model size $N$ extrapolation. Next, we explain nonlinearity in scaling: weight-norm converges to equilibrium slower when optimal learning is small, requiring a larger step size to reduce the transient phase. Experiments with AdamH, which directly controls the effective learning rate, further support this explanation.

We study sparse self-attention in which each query attends to a dense local window plus a set of Fibonacci-spaced offsets, with a per-layer scalar alpha that compresses or expands the spacing. Across 21 language models trained under one matched recipe (60M parameters, 512 hidden, 16 layers, 426M tokens), we compare four ways of setting alpha across depth: fixed, per-layer learned, a static linear stagger, and a coprime (anti-gridding) reassignment of that stagger, together with a reach-matched power-of-2 control. Three results stand out. First, a static per-layer stagger improves perplexity over both fixed and learned alpha, and the gain is base-agnostic: applying the same stagger to a power-of-2 base lifts it above fixed Fibonacci and to parity with learned Fibonacci attention. Second, learning per layer is inert: it does not beat the static schedule and costs roughly five times the inference latency. Third, and most consequential, all sparse variants extrapolate to four times their training length with little or no degradation, whereas a recipe-matched dense baseline collapses (perplexity rises by 201% at 4x length); we attribute this to fixed-offset attention only ever querying relative positions seen during training. We also report two honest negatives: at training length the best sparse model has about 26% higher perplexity than the dense baseline, and the staggering gain is uniform across context positions rather than concentrated at long range.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as investment research assistants, yet no benchmark tests whether they can accurately reconstruct and apply the specific procedural decision frameworks of expert investors. We introduce InvestPhilBench, a multi-layer benchmark spanning eight cognitive tiers, from principle identification (L1) to novel framework extrapolation (L8). The v0.6 release comprises 118 primary-source-verified principle cards, 25 decision-framework cards with explicit topology metadata, and 243 QA questions (197 dev / 46 held-out test). For reproducible scoring at scale we introduce the Benchmark Automated Scoring Pipeline (BASP), five algorithmic metrics, the Failure Mode Detection Protocol (FMDP) covering six failure modes, and Gate Reconstruction Accuracy (GRA), a per-gate metric for questions with gold reasoning programs. This release is primarily a benchmark-and-methodology contribution: its empirical study -- a four-model sanity wave on the 188-question development split (closed-book) -- is deliberately preliminary and stress-tests the metric design rather than ranking models. The wave shows a sharp provider-tier split (BASP 0.906 vs. 0.438), though these mixed-judge numbers are confounded upper bounds. The central methodological finding survives the caveat: the BASP composite saturates at the frontier (Claude L4 = 0.932) while GRA still exposes a procedural deficit (frontier L4 GRA ~0.77, L7 GRA 0.57-0.62) -- composite scoring rewards fluent prose and hides the procedural gap. On a 100-item expert-annotated gold set, the automated BASP composite tracks the human reference at Pearson r = 0.72 (MAE = 0.10). v0.6 also implements a unified judge and true model-in-the-loop retrieval/oracle conditions; the de-confounded multi-model leaderboard and full three-condition run are v1.0 deliverables.

PaTH Attention showed that replacing RoPE's position-indexed rotations with accumulated data-dependent Householder reflections yields strong length extrapolation, though performance degrades at extreme context lengths. We ask whether this depends on Householder-specific structure or reflects a general property of accumulated transformations along source-to-query paths. We study a simpler variant keeping RoPE's block-diagonal SO(2) rotations but replacing position-indexed angles with accumulated token-dependent ones. It shows the same pattern: improved extrapolation then degradation at long contexts. We prove the result extends to accumulated orthogonal transformations satisfying certain regularity conditions: their products become incoherent after finitely many steps, suppressing attention to distant tokens. Accumulated rotations of queries and keys create a finite mixing window independent of context length; per-token suppression learned in training transfers unchanged to any evaluation length, and high-dimensional concentration produces a score gap suppressing far tokens while near-route transport preserves the target signal. Conversely, a lower bound shows accumulated rotations must eventually degrade: as the far set grows, no rotations preserve the near signal without explicit far-mass control. For SO(2) rotations, rotating values too makes residual far contributions combine incoherently, extending the range. Controlled experiments support these predictions: random accumulated rotations substantially improve extrapolation over RoPE, learned token-dependent rotations maintain near-training-length perplexity far beyond the training context, and rotating values helps over queries and keys alone. Rotation-only models still degrade at extreme lengths, while ALiBi stays length-stable, consistent with the need for far-mass control.

Discrete flow matching (DFM) provides a principled framework for generative modeling on discrete state spaces via continuous-time Markov chain dynamics. In practice, sampling for DFM commonly employs discretizations such as $τ$-leaping, yet efficient sampling methods under a limited number of function evaluations (NFE) remain less studied. To address this gap, we propose the Time-Reparameterized Cumulative Intensity Extrapolation (TR-CIE) sampler, which aims to improve sampling quality when function evaluations are restricted. TR-CIE consists of two components. First, a schedule-based time reparameterization rescales the time grid according to the noise schedule. Under standard factorized DFM rate parameterizations, this transformation of variables absorbs the schedule-dependent growth term and mitigates stiffness near the terminal sampling stage. Second, we introduce a cumulative-intensity extrapolation updating rule. By reusing cached model outputs from the previous step as a history term, this improves the approximation of stepwise cumulative intensities on the resulting non-uniform time grid. We provide a theoretical analysis that bounds the local approximation error of cumulative intensities and establishes convergence results. The resulting sampler requires one NFE per step and introduces no additional model evaluations compared to the standard $τ$-leaping sampler. Extensive experiments on synthetic tasks, text generation, and text-to-image benchmarks demonstrate that our method improves sampling quality under limited NFE.

Predicting the behavior of dynamical systems (DS) beyond the dynamical and parameter regimes observed in training is a pivotal and essentially unresolved problem in scientific ML. It is central to any good scientific theory, which we expect to be able to make predictions about regimes not covered by currently available data. Recent hierarchical and hyper-network guided approaches for DS reconstruction (DSR) enable training on many DS simultaneously, and revealed that extracted latent features are often related to crucial control parameters of the underlying DS that varied across the training corpus. However, true out-of-domain forecasting abilities of these models, e.g., across tipping points, remain limited, and fine-tuning, or even full model retraining, on time series from the new dynamical regime is usually required. Here, we mathematically analyze the root of these limitations in previous model formulations and identify three core shortcomings rooted in a mismatch between structural assumptions of the reconstruction model and typical properties of physical systems. We propose a combination of remedies for these shortcomings, most importantly feature splitting, and furthermore derive a closed-form bound on the reliable extrapolation range. We demonstrate empirically that our techniques allow for accurate zero-shot prediction into new dynamical regimes, outside the observed training regime, as, e.g., encountered across tipping points.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit abilities beyond natural language modelling and text generation. Recent advances in their reasoning capabilities have spurred interest in applying LLMs to complex scientific tasks requiring deep domain expertise and sophisticated reasoning. Quantum computing, as a highly specialised field with significant knowledge barriers and hardware constraints, could greatly benefit from such advancements. However, a key open question that first must be answered is: How can we develop fine-tuning pipelines that instil genuine quantum reasoning in LLMs, rather than task-specific pattern matching? We study this question through quantum circuit simulation as a training objective, where the model must predict the measurement probability distribution resulting from a sequence of quantum gate operations. We propose and compare two fine-tuning pipelines: (1) Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on explicit gate-by-gate state-vector simulation traces, and (2) a two-stage SFT+Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) approach that sequentially applies SFT followed by GRPO with verifiable rewards. Our findings show that SFT achieves near-perfect in-distribution and gate-count extrapolation accuracy, significantly outperforming both the base model and the GPT-OSS-120B baseline. SFT+GRPO trades some in-distribution precision for better generalisation to larger qubit systems that SFT alone cannot handle. Both pipelines significantly outperform the baselines, demonstrating that targeted fine-tuning on explicit reasoning traces is an effective strategy for advancing quantum reasoning in LLMs.

Conventional neural network (NN)-based imitation learning methods for variable-speed motion either restricted their scope to interpolated speeds, or generated unpredictable motions when extrapolating beyond trained velocity ranges. Variable-frequency imitation learning (VFIL) enabled extrapolations of speeds by linking the NN model's sampling frequency to the motion frequency, whereas its open-loop configuration caused frequency errors, especially in the extrapolated high-frequency settings. This study proposes variable-frequency imitation learning with iterative learning control (VFILC) based on a combination of VFIL and iterative learning control (ILC) with both feedforward and feedback parts, the former taking advantage of VFIL and the latter adjusting the frequency errors. The experimental results showed that the proposed method successfully and accurately extrapolated motion speeds and reduced frequency errors in all three tasks, and that the feedback especially reduced the frequency errors by a remarkable 81% in the wiping task and 50% in the shaking task, both compared to simple feedforward VFIL, when extrapolating at double the average speed in the training data. The proposed method also improved accuracy by 27% compared with VFIL even at an interpolated frequency for a contact-rich mixing task affected by complex friction traits.

Reliable generalization in conditional latent variable models requires understanding both identifiability and extrapolation: how observed variation across attributes determines latent structure, and how that structure determines distributions at unseen attributes. However, existing identifiability and extrapolation guarantees are largely model-specific, with separate analyses in nonlinear ICA, causal representation learning, perturbation modeling, and related conditional latent variable models. We introduce concept modulation models (CMMs), an attribute-indexed class of conditional generative models with structure $A\to Λ\to C\to X$, where attributes select modulators, modulators induce latent concept laws, and concepts generate observed features. CMMs lift transition-based identifiability to conditional settings by showing that feature agreement on observed attributes induces a latent concept transition constrained by the CMM class. We express these constraints through attribute potentials, log-density ratios between attribute-conditioned concept laws, separating the generic lifting step from model-specific rigidity arguments. The same potentials control extrapolation: agreement at unseen attributes holds exactly when the transported attribute-potential identities extend to those attributes. This yields algebraic extrapolation criteria, identifies the common potential-based proof objects behind several existing identifiability and extrapolation results, and, when combined with the model-specific rigidity arguments in those works, recovers their stated conclusions.

Machine Learning (ML) models for grain growth prediction are typically trained on idealized synthetic data, yet practical applications require generalization to conditions outside the training distribution. This study evaluated the Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) generalization capability of the trained model from our previous study across three test cases, including experimental microstructures, microstructures characterized by a bimodal grain size distribution, and abnormal grain growth. To further probe whether physics-informed architectural design could improve robustness under these different conditions, a boundary-masked attention mechanism was proposed specifically for grain growth, constraining attention to grain boundary pixels. Both the baseline and the proposed physics-informed attention model were evaluated without retraining or fine-tuning on the OOD data. Both models successfully generalized to all three test cases, yet the boundary-masked attention mechanism provided substantial improvements, with the most notable gains for microstructures characterized by a bimodal grain size distribution, where Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) improved from \num{0.6221} to \num{0.7609} and mean grain size ($\overline{R}$) error decreased from \SI{8.75}{\percent} to \SI{3.57}{\percent}. The attention heatmap analysis revealed that the boundary-masked attention model learned to concentrate attention on large grain boundaries in a manner consistent with curvature-driven grain growth physics, emerging from training without being explicitly encoded into the architecture. These results indicate that models trained on synthetic data can generalize to diverse OOD conditions without retraining, and that physics-informed attention may improve accuracy when the boundary morphology matches the training domain.

Reliable extrapolation remains a central challenge for generative models in computational physics, because models trained over finite ranges of time, parameters, or geometries may produce physically inconsistent predictions outside the training distribution. We introduce a least-action-principle-guided diffusion, LAPG, a framework that promotes physical consistency during inference rather than relying solely on constraints imposed during training. The method combines a conditional score-based diffusion model with an action-derived physical guidance score. In the first stage, the learned score model generates an in-distribution proposal; in the second, an action-based variational prior refines this proposal toward the target out-of-distribution condition. This formulation turns the principle of least action into a differentiable inference-time correction mechanism and provides an alternative to pointwise residual penalties that often require empirical loss balancing. We evaluate LAPG on representative ordinary- and partial-differential-equation systems, including free fall, conservative and dissipative spring-mass dynamics, interacting point vortices, and potential flow over parameterized airfoils. In temporal, parameter, and geometric extrapolation tests, LAPG reduces phase drift, preserves dissipative decay, captures vortex motion, and improves the lift response of airfoil flows compared with training-time physics-informed baselines.

While speech quality is typically assessed on complete utterances, streaming and generative systems require incremental estimation from partial audio. Existing predictors assume full context, degrading on prefix-constrained inputs. Extending ARECHO, we propose ANCHOR, reformulating incremental assessment as a multi-resolution autoregressive task. It models chunk- and utterance-level quality within a single decoder using dual-resolution tokens and a resolution-aware hierarchy for coarse-to-fine refinement. Experiments show substantial robustness under partial input, including a 48% PLCMOS error reduction on 2-second prefixes. Convergence analysis reveals a 4-6 s effective perceptual context horizon. A stress test further isolates structured extrapolation biases under localized corruption. Results demonstrate that hierarchical supervision improves incremental prediction and elucidates how perceptual quality accumulates over time.

Scientific generative modeling often requires size transfer, where models trained on small systems are evaluated on larger ones. While translation-invariant architectures enable this evaluation, we show that architectural locality alone does not guarantee stable size extrapolation. Instead, stable extrapolation is governed by the quasi-locality of the Gaussian-smoothed score. Through Tweedie's formula, far-away perturbations can influence local score components via posterior covariance, meaning a local model succeeds only if its receptive field covers the smoothed score's response range. We formalize this mechanism, proving a size-uniform comparison theorem for local marginals under reverse diffusion. We also introduce Finite-Depth Local Flow (FDLF), a white-box diagnostic benchmark with exact scores, densities, and controllable response ranges. Empirically, we validate the interplay between spatial mixing, smoothed-score quasi-locality, and model receptive fields. Under spatial mixing, the smoothed score remains quasi-local relative to the receptive field, enabling stable extrapolation. Conversely, when spatial mixing weakens, the score's locality rapidly degrades, causing size transfer to fail.

Conditional generators provide a natural tool for controllable generation, including settings where the desired condition is a new composition of observed attributes or experimental factors. In many applications, especially in scientific domains, such models are attractive to explore conditions for which real samples are rare, expensive, or not yet observed. However, this creates a circularity for evaluation: standard conditional quality metrics require a reference target distribution, but in the extrapolative regime that distribution is unavailable by definition. We address this problem with a post-hoc, per-sample trust score for assessing conditional samples using only the training distribution. The score combines two estimable quantities: global realism, measuring compatibility with the real data manifold, and attribute-wise faithfulness, measuring whether a sample is closer to the requested attributes than to plausible alternatives. We show that the score can recover meaningful comparisons across extrapolated generations, under a mild coverage condition on the observed attributes. These comparisons enable effective filtering, ranking, and abstention of generations and can be used directly on off-the-shelf pretrained models. In biological imaging, selected samples preserve real morphological structure better and improve downstream predictive performance, while similar gains are observed on controlled vision benchmarks. Finally, we show how the score can be applied during generation, enabling abstention before full decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/berkerdemirel/faithful-cond-gen.

Open-domain open-vocabulary detection (ODOVD) requires detectors to generalize to both novel categories and unseen domains, making it more challenging than open-vocabulary detection. Existing methods typically train open-vocabulary detectors together with domain generalization modules from scratch, leading to high training cost. we propose ExDet, a lightweight category-domain collaborative generalization framework for ODOVD that enhances the cross-category and cross-domain generalization of existing detectors. ExDet consists of Text-Guided Extrapolation (TGE), a lightweight Detector-Compatible Rectification (DCR) module, and ExRPN. Specifically, TGE exploits the DeltaSpace property of vision-language models (VLMs) to infer category- and domain-aware proxy visual prototypes from text. DCR is learned from the TGE-generated prototypes in a detector training-free and real-data-free manner, and is inserted after the classification head at inference to rectify representations toward a detector-compatible source-domain visual distribution, thereby enhancing classification for targets from novel categories and unseen domains. ExRPN recalibrates proposal scores by combining semantic similarity with RPN confidence, improving recall for novel and domain-shifted objects while providing better support for subsequent classification and DCR. ExDet achieves SOTA performance on OD-LVIS, OV-LVIS, Objects365, and MSOSB.

Decentralized stochastic optimization is a fundamental paradigm for large-scale learning over networks, where agents communicate only with their neighbors and no central coordinator is required. For strongly convex problems, communication efficiency is mainly determined by the condition number $κ=L/μ$ and the network spectral gap $1-β$. Although deterministic decentralized methods can simultaneously achieve accelerated $\sqrtκ$ and $1/\sqrt{1-β}$ dependences, no existing stochastic method attains both improvements at once. In this paper, we propose \emph{Multi-Gossip Accelerated DSGD} (MG-ADSGD), a decentralized stochastic algorithm that combines Nesterov-type primal--dual extrapolation with multi-round fast gossip averaging. The key idea is to couple the gossip depth with the mini-batch size so that additional communication rounds simultaneously improve consensus accuracy and reduce gradient variance. We show that MG-ADSGD achieves the communication complexity $$\widetilde{\mathcal O}\!\left( \frac{σ^2}{μnε}\log\frac{1}ε + \sqrt{\fracκ{1-β}}\log\frac{1}ε \right),$$ where $ε$ denotes the target accuracy, $n$ is the number of nodes, and $σ^2$ is the gradient variance. To the best of our knowledge, this bound yields the best currently available communication complexity for decentralized stochastic strongly convex optimization, up to logarithmic factors that are independent of $ε$.

Agentic Large Language Model (LLM) systems decompose complex tasks into workflow Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) whose primitives must be scheduled on heterogeneous clusters. Existing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) schedulers are tied to a fixed cluster size and require retraining whenever the number of servers changes. We propose SCALE (Scalable Cross-Attention Learning with Extrapolation), a DRL scheduler that generalizes to unseen cluster scales without fine-tuning. SCALE employs a cross-attention pointer network where task features query against server features, so the architecture accepts any number of servers by construction. We observe, however, that permutation-invariant architecture alone does not guarantee good performance at new scales - the attention feature undergoes distribution shift as the server count grows. To counter this, we introduce Structured Representation Regularization (SRR): a decorrelation loss combined with a KL penalty toward the standard normal, which keeps feature statistics stable regardless of input size. Trained on 16 nodes and tested directly on 32 and 48 nodes, SCALE reduces average response time by 8.9% at N=48 relative to the same architecture without SRR, confirming that explicit regularization is necessary to close the scale-generalization gap.

We study quantile regression in an extrapolation regime where the covariate takes unusually large values. Under regular variation assumptions, extreme observations can be effectively characterized through their angular components, enabling learning strategies that focus on the angle of the most extreme observations. This approach is formalized through the minimization of an asymptotic conditional risk that localizes learning in the tail of the covariate distribution. We propose a novel Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework for extreme quantile regression, leveraging reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to handle high-dimensional and nonlinear settings. Our method also accommodates unbounded response variables and avoids restrictive transformations. We establish finite-sample learning guarantees under mild regularity assumptions. The proposed framework unifies ideas from statistical learning and multivariate extremes, providing a tractable and theoretically grounded approach to extrapolation. We complement our theoretical findings with an empirical study on river flow data from the Danube, demonstrating the practical relevance of our methods.

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) support parallel text generation via iterative denoising, yet inference remains latency-heavy because many steps are spent on redundant refinement and repeated remasking of tokens whose final values are already determined. Prior acceleration methods mainly depend on step-local confidence heuristics or fixed schedules, which are sensitive to prompt and task variation and ignore strong positional effects within a sequence. We cast diffusion decoding as a dynamic control problem and show that token-wise denoising trajectories provide the key signal for reliable control. We propose a trace-aware decoding framework with two components. First, Temporal-Spatial Parallel Decoding (TSPD) uses a lightweight temporalspatial controller that consumes per-token trajectory features, including confidence, entropy, and momentum, together with token position, to decide when a token has converged and can be safely fixed. Second, we introduce Confidence Extrapolation (CE), a training-free state-space module that forecasts future logit trends with uncertainty to support proactive decisions, including safe look-ahead and targeted stabilization when trajectories are oscillatory or underconfident. Together, TSPD and CE reduce unnecessary denoising iterations while preserving output quality, and they compose cleanly with system optimizations such as KV caching.

While Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at interpolation, they suffer catastrophic failures in systematic generalization, most notably in visual counting. In this work, we investigate this extrapolation bottleneck by deconstructing visual counting into three cognitive stages: visual individuation, magnitude awareness, and symbolic mapping. Using synthetic Go boards and linear probes, we demonstrate that visual backbones maintain robust, linearly separable representations of quantity well into the extrapolation regime, ruling out perceptual failure. Furthermore, models retain latent magnitude awareness, successfully performing comparative reasoning on quantities they fail to enumerate. We pinpoint the collapse to the symbolic mapping stage, where the model fails to project valid visual magnitudes onto symbolic tokens. Our findings support a frac tured magnitude hypothesis: VLMs fail to acquire a universal number space, instead learning disjoint, modality-specific statistical manifolds that prevent cross-modal grounding for unseen quantities. Validated on the state-of-the-art foundation model, our results suggest that bridging this gap requires inductive priors enforcing unified representations, as data scaling alone is insufficient.

Modern learning systems excel at interpolation but struggle to generalize to unseen tasks outside the training distribution's support. This failure occurs even in simple settings, such as handling task parameters beyond the training range, and persists despite advances in foundation models. To this end, we develop the Relational Task Extrapolator (RTE), an algorithm designed to enable systematic extrapolation to novel tasks. The key observation is that extrapolation is inherently relational: extrapolating to unseen tasks requires learning how tasks transform into one another. If a model learns the transformation between tasks A and B during training, it can apply that same transformation to relate known tasks to unseen ones at test time. RTE operationalizes this idea by decomposing each target task into a known anchor task and a transformation linking the anchor and target. It then learns a relational operator, mapping an anchor-transformation pair to predictions for the target task. We instantiate RTE across multiple task extrapolation regimes in function prediction, e.g. where target tasks use out-of-range parameters (parameter extrapolation), have greater compositional depth (length extrapolation), and/or recombine function primitives in unseen ways (compositional extrapolation). We further extend RTE to sequence prediction, integrating it into fine-tuning algorithms for foundation models. Across empirical studies, we find that RTE substantially outperforms existing approaches on extrapolation to novel, unseen tasks.

Linear interpolation between fine-tuned checkpoints has been shown to trace the Pareto front between competing objectives, but whether extrapolative weight averaging can extend such frontiers to new checkpoints useful at inference time, without additional RL training, remains unclear. We study this question in RL for competitive programming, where hidden unit tests under time and memory limits enforce both functional correctness and computational efficiency. Starting from a shared initialization, we train checkpoints under nested unit-test coverage: low-coverage rewards require passing smaller-input tests, while high-coverage rewards require passing progressively larger tests up to the full suite. This sweep reveals the emergence of a correctness-efficiency frontier: on hard problems, higher-coverage reward reduces optimization failures but increases correctness failures, leaving solve rate nearly unchanged. Interpolation between low- and high-coverage checkpoints recovers this frontier, while extrapolation extends it beyond the trained endpoints. Both the frontier and its extrapolative continuation appear across three inference settings, pure reasoning, tool use, and agentic coding, and across two model scales, 32B and 7B. At the problem level, moving along the frontier changes which problems are solved, making extrapolated checkpoints complementary policies in inference-time scaling. Ensembles with extrapolative weight averaging broaden coverage and improve pass@250 on LCB/hard by 3.3% over the best single checkpoint at matched sample budget. These results show that nested unit-test coverage in code RL induces a frontier that extrapolative weight averaging can navigate, extend, and exploit.

We present a functional form (that we refer to as a Unified Neural Scaling Law (UNSL)) that accurately models and extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks as multiple dimensions all vary simultaneously (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as one simultaneously varies the number of model parameters, training dataset size, number of training steps, number of inference steps, amount of compute, and various hyperparameters) for various architectures and for each of various tasks within a varied set of upstream and downstream tasks. This set includes large-scale vision, language, math, and reinforcement learning. When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set.

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification increasingly emphasise the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning, motivating the need for more unified frameworks. However, despite much progress in producing reliable predictions, existing methods often lack rigorous guarantees when generalising beyond the training domain. We propose a conformalised imprecise inference framework for robust extrapolation, which is model-agnostic and augments predictive models with imprecision and distance awareness. The proposed approach yields imprecise predictions (probability boxes) that remain valid under distributional shift, maintaining coverage while adaptively expanding uncertainty in extrapolation regimes. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate improved robustness and reliable coverage compared to standard probabilistic approaches, particularly under limited data.

We document inverse scaling in LLMs on forecasting problems whose underlying time series exhibit superlinear growth and tail risk of regime change, a structure common in finance and epidemiology. On these tasks, more capable models produce worse distributional forecasts. The pattern appears on ForecastBench-Sim (FBSim), a contamination-free, simulated-world benchmark we release, in forecasting synthetic SIR epidemics with a matched linear control, and replicates in real-world datasets on COVID-19, measles, housing markets, and hyperinflation. A per-quantile decomposition shows the failure concentrates at the upper tail, which more capable models shift upward to track aggressive extrapolations of growth, while the lower tail stays put. A within-family study of Llama-3.1 shows that both model scale and post-training independently contribute to this effect. Domain knowledge does not reliably rescue calibration. This inverse scaling does not appear on single-threshold metrics common in LLM forecasting benchmarks, reversing the sign of the capability--accuracy relationship on identical outputs. Single-threshold scoring at conventional cutoffs misses the upper-tail cost; tail-inclusive scoring reverses the sign of the capability--accuracy relationship on the same outputs. We recommend that LLM forecasting evaluations use continuous (and unbounded) measures of accuracy alongside bounded binary threshold metrics.

Diffusion transformers (DiTs) have emerged as a dominant architecture for text-to-image generation, yet their performance drops when generating at resolutions beyond their training range. Existing training-free approaches mitigate this by modifying inference-time attention behavior, often through Rotary Position Embeddings (RoPE) extrapolation combined with attention scaling. However, these strategies apply a uniform and content-agnostic scaling across RoPE components with distinct frequency characteristics, inducing a trade-off between preserving global structure and recovering fine detail. We introduce SEGA, a training-free method that dynamically scales attention across RoPE components according to the latent's spatial-frequency structure at each denoising step. This adaptive scaling improves both structural coherence and fine-detail fidelity. Experiments show that SEGA consistently improves high-resolution synthesis across multiple target resolutions, outperforming state-of-the-art training-free baselines.

Hyperparameter transfer allows extrapolating optimal optimization hyperparameters from small to large scales, making it critical for training large language models (LLMs). This is done either by fitting a scaling law to the hyperparameters or by a judicious choice of parameterization, such as Maximal Update ($μ$P), that renders optimal hyperparameters approximately scale invariant. In this paper, we first develop a framework to quantify hyperparameter transfer through three metrics: (1) the quality of the scaling law fit, (2) the robustness to extrapolation errors, and (3) the asymptotic loss penalty due to choice of parameterization. Next, we investigate through a comprehensive series of ablations why $μ$P appears to offer high-quality learning rate transfer relative to standard parameterization (SP), as existing theory is inadequate. We find that the overwhelming benefit of $μ$P relative to SP when training with AdamW arises simply from maximizing the learning rate of the embedding layer. In SP, the embedding layer learning rate acts as a bottleneck that induces training instabilities; increasing it by a factor of width to match $μ$P dramatically smooths out training while improving hyperparameter transfer. We also find that weight decay improves the scaling law fits, while, in the fixed token-per-parameter setting, it hurts the robustness of the extrapolation.

We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in $P_X$ and $P_{Y\mid X}$. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapolation scenarios and evaluates performance across held-out domains, temporal aggregations, and tail errors. In a pilot study, we find that baselines perform similarly under median hourly RMSE, but separate under the proposed tail-focused and multi-scale evaluation. FLUXtrapolation therefore poses a realistic and thus relevant challenge for machine learning methods under distribution shift; at the same time, progress on this benchmark would directly support the scientific goal of improving flux upscaling.

Stochastic gradient methods are central to modern large-scale learning, but their use with incomplete covariates remains delicate since imputation schemes generally introduce systematic gradient biases, as shown for linear models. In this work, we prove that all parametric models exhibit similar gradient bias for various imputation procedures and characterize exactly the dependence on the missingness ratio vector $p$, with $O(\|p\|)$ as the leading term. We exploit this analysis to propose a simple debiasing procedure for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with missing values based on Richardson extrapolation, which leverages the exact expression of the gradient bias. The key idea is to \emph{deliberately add missingness}: from an already incomplete observation, we generate a further-thinned version at a higher, controlled missingness level, and combine the two resulting stochastic gradients to cancel the leading bias term. We prove that one Richardson step reduces the gradient bias from $O(\|p\|)$ to $O(\|p\|^2)$ under several missingness scenarios. Our proposed method is computationally efficient, model-agnostic and applies to any parametric loss whose stochastic gradient can be computed after imputation. Furthermore, when missing indicators are independent, the population gradient bias is a multilinear polynomial in $p$ and depends only on population gradient errors induced by declaring a single coordinate missing. In this case, our method generalizes to a multi-step Richardson procedure which recursively cancels higher-order terms. Empirically, Richardson debiasing improves optimization and estimation across several generalized linear models and combines positively with widely used imputation procedures such as MICE. These results suggest that, somewhat counter-intuitively, adding controlled missingness on top of existing missing data can make stochastic learning from incomplete data more accurate.

Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, \textit{i.e.}, mapping \textbf{history} to \textbf{target}, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (``\textbf{history} (model input) -- \textbf{target} (ground-truth output) -- \textbf{post-target continuation}''). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a \emph{train-only} historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.

Battery health diagnostics today rely overwhelmingly on electrochemical signals measured at the cell terminals. A parallel literature has shown that magnetic sensing can resolve information that terminal-only measurements miss, but method development is limited by the absence, to the best of our knowledge, of public battery magnetic-measurement datasets paired with degradation labels. We release MagBridge-Battery v1.0, a synthetic dataset of 6,760 magnetic-field signatures that bridges real magnetic morphology from the Mohammadi-Jerschow Open Science Framework (OSF) archive with state-of-health (SOH) labels from the PulseBat dataset. The release contains 5,600 PulseBat-conditioned grounded samples, 600 synthetic sensor-anomaly samples derived from clean parents, and 560 low-voltage Regime-B extrapolation samples. A cell-disjoint, parent-child-leakage-free primary benchmark split is verified to contain zero overlapping cells, zero cross-split parent-child pairs, and zero sample-ID overlap. We define three primary benchmark tasks: SOH regression, second-life classification, and anomaly detection, plus an auxiliary anomaly-subtype classification task. A controlled label-shuffle ablation collapses SOH regression from R^2 approximately 0.77 to approximately 0, confirming that the bridge encodes input SOH non-trivially rather than producing label-aligned artifacts. The dataset is released on Zenodo under CC-BY-4.0, and the bridge code and benchmark suite are released under Apache-2.0. This work provides a public benchmark for magnetic-sensing battery diagnostics while paired magnetic-electrochemical measurements remain scarce.

Video outpainting generates plausible visual content beyond the original spatial extent of a video, playing a key role in adapting videos to diverse display formats. To support such use cases, it must enable large spatial extrapolation over long sequences. However, most existing methods address only one of these challenges or lack explicit mechanisms for ensuring global spatio-temporal consistency, leading to notable limitations. In this paper, we propose HL-OutPaint, a high-resolution video outpainting framework for long sequences. Our approach follows a coarse-to-fine strategy with a two-stage pipeline. We first construct Global Coarse Guidance (GCG), a low-resolution representation that captures global structure and dominant motion across the video. Unlike naive downsampling, GCG is built via a novel global-local frame swapping mechanism that couples sparse global keyframes with local temporal windows and exchanges information during sampling. This enables GCG to encode both long-term structural consistency and short-term temporal dynamics in a unified representation. Guided by this representation, HL-OutPaint then performs high-resolution outpainting to generate spatially detailed and temporally consistent content. By separating global structure modeling from fine-grained synthesis, our framework achieves stable, coherent generation for large spatial expansion and long video sequences. Extensive experiments show that HL-OutPaint outperforms existing methods in challenging scenarios involving wide spatial extrapolation and long video sequences.

Recent advances in neural operators have made partial differential equation (PDE) surrogate modeling increasingly scalable and transferable through large-scale pretraining and in-context adaptation. However, after a shared operator is fine-tuned to multiple regimes within a continuous physical family, it remains unclear whether the resulting weight-space updates merely form isolated regime experts or reveal reusable physical structure. Starting from a shared family anchor, we fine-tune low- and high-regime endpoint experts and show that their updates can be separated into a family-shared adaptation and a direction aligned with the underlying physical parameter. This separation reinterprets endpoint experts as finite-difference probes of a local physical direction in weight space, explaining why static averaging can interpolate between regimes but attenuates endpoint-specific physics. Building on this perspective, we propose Calibration-Conditioned Merge (CCM), a post-hoc coordinate readout method for composing neural PDE experts along this physical direction. Given physical metadata, a calibrated coordinate mapping, or a short observed rollout prefix, CCM infers the target composition coordinate and deploys a single merged checkpoint for the remaining rollout. We evaluate CCM on the reaction--diffusion system, viscosity-parameterized two-dimensional Navier--Stokes equations, and radial dam-break dynamics. Across these benchmarks, CCM achieves its strongest gains in extrapolative regimes, reducing out-of-distribution rollout error relative to the family anchor by 54.2%, 42.8%, and 13.8%, respectively. Further experiments across FNO scales, a DPOT-style backbone, and ablations confirm that endpoint fine-tuning is not arbitrary checkpoint drift, but reveals a calibratable physical direction for training-free transfer across PDE regimes.

Recent advancements in large language models demonstrate that injecting perturbations can substantially enhance extrapolation performance. However, current approaches often rely on discrete perturbations with fixed designs, which limits their flexibility. In this work, we propose a framework where token prefixes are perturbed by a learnable transformation of a continuous latent vector within an embedding space. To overcome the challenge of an intractable marginal likelihood, we derive unbiased estimating equations for model parameters and optimize them via stochastic gradient descent. We establish the statistical properties of the resulting estimator in over-parameterized regimes. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposal yields significant gains in out-of-domain settings over a range of state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Data selection during supervised fine-tuning (SFT) can critically change the behavior of large language models (LLMs). Although existing work has studied the effect of selecting data based on heuristics such as perplexity, difficulty, or length, the reported findings are often inconsistent or context-dependent. In this work, we systematically study the role of data difficulty in fine-tuning from both empirical and theoretical perspectives, and find that there is no universally optimal difficulty level; rather, its effectiveness depends on the dataset size. We show that for a fixed data budget, there exists an optimal data difficulty for SFT, and that this optimal difficulty shifts toward harder data as the data budget increases. To explain this phenomenon, we conduct controlled synthetic experiments that reveal a simple underlying mechanism: the interplay between the (in-distribution) generalization gap and the extrapolation gap. We further support this mechanism through a theoretical analysis using PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Overall, our results clarify how data size and difficulty jointly affect the trade-off between generalization and extrapolation in SFT, providing guidance for difficulty-based data selection under certain model and data conditions.

Effectively configuring scalable large language model (LLM) experiments, spanning architecture design, hyperparameter tuning, and beyond, is crucial for advancing LLM research, as poor configuration choices can waste substantial computational resources and prevent models from realizing their full potential. Prior automated methods are designed for low-cost settings where repeated trial and error is feasible, but scalable LLM experiments are too expensive for such extensive iteration. To our knowledge, no work has addressed the automation of high-cost LLM experiment configurations, leaving this problem labor-intensive and dependent on expert intuition. Motivated by this gap, we propose AutoLLMResearch, an agentic framework that mimics how human researchers learn generalizable principles from low-fidelity experiments and extrapolate to efficiently identify promising configurations in expensive LLM settings. The core challenge is how to enable an agent to learn, through interaction with a multi-fidelity experimental environment that captures the structure of the LLM configuration landscape. To achieve this, we propose a systematic framework with two key components: 1) LLMConfig-Gym, a multi-fidelity environment encompassing four critical LLM experiment tasks, supported by over one million GPU hours of verifiable experiment outcomes; 2) A structured training pipeline that formulates configuration research as a long-horizon Markov Decision Process and accordingly incentivizes cross-fidelity extrapolation reasoning. Extensive evaluation against diverse strong baselines on held-out experiments demonstrates the effectiveness, generalization, and interpretability of our framework, supporting its potential as a practical and general solution for scalable real-world LLM experiment automation.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have emerged as a strong alternative to diffusion for image synthesis, yet their fixed training resolution prevents direct generation at higher resolutions. Naively transferring training-free extrapolation methods from LLMs or diffusion models to VAR yields three characteristic failure modes: global repetition, local repetition, and detail degradation. We trace them to a unified band-stage mismatch: VAR generates images in a coarse-to-fine, scale-wise process where each stage is driven by a distinct dominant RoPE frequency band, and each failure mode emerges when the dominant band of a particular stage is disrupted. Building on this insight, we propose Stage-Aware RoPE Remapping, a training-free strategy that assigns each frequency band a stage-specific remapping rule, jointly suppressing all three failure modes. We further observe that attention becomes systematically dispersed as the image resolution increases. Existing methods typically depend on predefined attention scaling factors, which are neither adaptive to the target resolution nor capable of faithfully capturing the actual extent of attention dispersion. We therefore propose Entropy-Driven Adaptive Attention Calibration, which quantifies dispersion via a resolution-invariant normalized entropy and yields a closed-form per-head scaling factor that realigns the extrapolated-resolution attention entropy with its training-resolution counterpart. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently outperforms prior resolution-extrapolation methods in both structural coherence and fine-detail fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/feihongyan1/ExtraVAR.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

Extrapolation to out-of-distribution conditions is a fundamental challenge for physics-constrained deep generative models. Existing methods apply physical constraints as a single static regularization term uniformly across the generation process, and address neither the hierarchical structure of physical laws and the confounding variable problem. We propose the Deconfounded Hierarchical Gate (DHG), which serves as a diagnostic and control mechanism: it identifies when and how strongly temperature confounding contaminates each constraint level, so that hierarchical gates reflect intrinsic physical inconsistency rather than spurious temperature effects. DHG combines counterfactual estimation via the do-operator with backdoor adjustment to remove confounding, then applies Coarse-to-Fine physical constraints progressively. We report a counter-intuitive finding in pretraining: excluding the target-domain data from pretraining outperforms including it by 39% in extrapolation performance (RMSE 0.224 vs. 0.324). This occurs because FNO learns domain-agnostic physical patterns that transfer more effectively when the target domain is withheld. On a lithium-ion battery temperature extrapolation benchmark (trained at 24 degrees Celsius, evaluated at 4.0--43.0 degrees Celsius), our method achieves RMSE = 0.215, a 46% improvement over the unconstrained baseline (Pure CFM: 0.397).

Successful deep neural networks discover salient features of data. We show when and why they fail to learn out-of-distribution (OOD)-relevant representations from an in-distribution (ID) training window. This requires decoupling feature learning from data-generating-process (DGP) identifiability. From a single training window, OOD extrapolation is non-identifiable: infinitely many DGPs are $\varepsilon$-observationally equivalent on the training data but diverge arbitrarily outside it, and no in-distribution criterion alone reliably breaks the tie. A structural commitment, the feature map, label map, and model class $(\varphi, ψ, \mathcal{M})$, dictates the assumed DGP and governs OOD generalization while leaving ID performance essentially unchanged. When architecture, pretraining, augmentation, input formats, or domain knowledge implicitly inject the missing commitment, the model succeeds. When it cannot infer OOD-relevant structure from ID evidence, it fails. Changing only the representation can make the same architecture, at the same in-distribution loss, differ by ${\sim}520\times$ out of distribution. When the commitment is correct and identifiable, OOD error vanishes. For example, Fourier coordinates turn periodic extrapolation into interpolation on $\mathbb{S}^1$. The same mechanism predicts outcomes in three natural-science settings (mass-action chemistry; Kepler's-third-law exoplanet prediction, $n=2{,}362$; and cross-species coding-DNA detection) and in a 264-run positional-encoding study across Transformer, Mamba, and S4D. Finally, a controlled study shows: correct features are necessary but not sufficient. The model class must express the target, and the transformed training data must cover the relevant representation space.

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is essential for high-fidelity conditional generation in flow matching, yet it imposes significant computational overhead by requiring dual forward passes at each sampling step. In this work, we address this bottleneck by introducing \textbf{P-Guide}, a framework that achieves high-quality guidance through a single inference pass by modulating only the initial latent state. We further show that, under a first-order approximation, P-Guide is equivalent to CFG in the sense that it steers generation from the prior space, without requiring explicit velocity field extrapolation during sampling. We consider both homoscedastic and \textbf{heteroscedastic} priors, and find that jointly modeling the mean and variance enables adaptive loss attenuation and improved robustness to data uncertainty. Extensive experiments demonstrate that P-Guide reduces inference latency by approximately 50% while maintaining fidelity and prompt alignment competitive with standard dual-pass CFG baselines.

We introduce a simple yet powerful framework for training large language models. In contrast to the standard autoregressive next-token prediction based on an exact prefix, we propose a perturbation-based procedure that first transforms the prefix into a semantic neighbor and then conditions on this perturbed variant for next-token prediction. This yields a hierarchical model with a pre-post-additive noise structure. Within this framework, we develop a rigorous theory of extrapolability, namely, the capacity of a model class to make reliable predictions for token sequences that lie outside the empirical support of the training corpus. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure using both synthetic and real-world language data. Results show that the proposed method consistently improves out-of-support prediction while maintaining competitive in-support performance, demonstrating that perturbation offers a practical route to language modeling.

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from these advances, including regression and classification beyond the training data, extreme quantile regression, supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction, generative artificial intelligence and anomaly detection. This review synthesizes recent developments in these fields at the intersection of statistical learning and extreme value theory, with a focus on principled methods based on asymptotically motivated representations of the tail of univariate and multivariate distributions. We consider different theoretical frameworks for both asymptotically dependent and independent data and discuss how they translate into efficient statistical methods for extrapolation to extreme regions. By addressing both theoretical and practical aspects, we offer a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in this quickly evolving field, and identify promising directions for future research.

Wireless foundation models (WFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for unified channel state information (CSI) acquisition across diverse tasks in sixth-generation (6G) networks. Although WFMs significantly outperform task-specific small models, their zero-shot cross-scenario generalization still remains limited for real-world applications. Existing positional embeddings, the sole interface through which self-attention perceives the temporal-frequency-antenna 3D physical coordinates of CSI, fail to capture the highly dynamic and axis-dependent coherence inherent in wireless channels. This paper proposes Adaptive 3D-RoPE, a channel-driven 3D rotary positional embedding framework for WFMs to dynamically align the 3D positional embeddings with the instantaneous coherence state of heterogeneous CSI. The design proceeds in three stages: first, an axis-wise learnable rotary prior independently preserves the temporal, frequency, and antenna coordinate structures; second, a feature-guided rotary modulation module maps the feature-wise standard deviation of visible CSI tokens to compact, sample-adaptive scales; third, identical coordinate offsets induce dynamically adjusted query-key interactions tailored to the instantaneous channel state. Extensive experiments on both simulated and measured datasets validate the effectiveness of Adaptive 3D-RoPE across three complementary dimensions. It reduces NMSE by 10.14, 6.25, and 4.61 dB relative to baselines under antenna, temporal, and frequency scaling, respectively. It transfers effectively to real-world measured CSI and remains robust under imperfect CSI. Finally, it transfers to the independently designed LWM backbone and beam-prediction task, improving zero-shot Top-1 accuracy by 8.03 percentage points.