Forecasting Benchmarks

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Overview

Forecasting benchmarks test how well models predict future values or events in settings such as energy, weather, health, finance, and prediction markets. They compare classical statistical methods, machine-learning models, time-series foundation models, and language-model agents using fixed test sets, rolling or live evaluations, and zero-shot or fine-tuned setups. Stronger benchmarks use leakage controls, simple baselines, probabilistic scores, and tests across changing regimes, missing data, extreme events, or downstream decisions. A central challenge is that model rankings can change with the dataset, evaluation protocol, metric, or operating conditions, so low average error alone does not establish reliable or useful forecasts.

Latest papers

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227 papers37 papers in the last four weeks, up 32% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. ViroGym: Realistic Large-Scale Benchmarks for Evaluating Viral Proteins

    Mar 6, 2026Yichen Zhou, Jonathan Golob, Amir Karimi +2Protein Language ModelsProtein Fitness Prediction

    GlaxoSmithKline · Technical University of Munich · University of Washington +1

  2. How do standard time series forecasting benchmarks translate to finance? A broad study of risk adjusted performance

    Mar 2, 2026Adir Saly-Kaufmann, Kieran Wood, Jan-Peter Calliess +1Financial Time SeriesTime Series Forecasting

    Machine Learning Research Group, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford · Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance, University of Oxford

  3. Time Series Foundation Models as Strong Baselines in Transportation Forecasting: A Large-Scale Benchmark Analysis

    Feb 27, 2026Javier Yanes-Pulido, Filipe RodriguesTime-Series Foundation ModelsZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

    Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark

  4. A Controlled Comparison of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Financial Forecasting: Evidence from 918 Experiments

    Feb 27, 2026Nabeel Ahmad SaiddTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technical University (AKTU)

  5. Benchmarking State Space Models, Transformers, and Recurrent Networks for US Grid Forecasting

    Feb 24, 2026Sunki Hong, Jisoo LeeForecasting BenchmarksElectricity Load Forecasting

    Gramm AI

  6. PreScience: A Dataset and Benchmark for Scientific Forecasting

    Feb 24, 2026Anirudh Ajith, Amanpreet Singh, Jay DeYoung +7AI for ScienceForecasting Benchmarks

    Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Seattle, WA, USA · Knowledge Lab, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel +1

  7. R2^2Energy: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Robust Renewable Energy Forecasting under Diverse and Extreme Conditions

    Feb 17, 2026Zhi Sheng, Yuan Yuan, Guozhen Zhang +1Forecasting BenchmarksTime Series Forecasting

    Center for Urban Science and Computation, Tsinghua University · Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University

  8. CAMEL: An ECG Language Model for Forecasting Cardiac Events

    Feb 17, 2026Neelay Velingker, Alaia Solko-Breslin, Mayank Keoliya +9Electrocardiogram Foundation ModelsElectrocardiogram Interpretation

    University of Pennsylvania

  9. Adaptive Automatic Model Selection for Demand Forecasting under Heterogeneous Demand Patterns

    Feb 15, 2026Adolfo González, Víctor ParadaTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Department of Computer Engineering and Informatics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Santiago of Chile, Santiago, Chile

  10. TKGB: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

    Feb 9, 2026Jiasheng Zhang, Zhengpin Li, Hao Li +3Forecasting BenchmarksTemporal KGs

    Xidian University, China, Xi’an · Peking University, China, Peking · University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, China, Chengdu +1

  11. OccStress: Stress-Testing the 4D Occupancy Forecasting Chain

    Dec 17, 2025Yu Zheng, Jie Hu, Jiaqi Xiong +4Forecasting Benchmarks3D Occupancy Prediction

    Hunan University · ETH Zurich

  12. Scriboora: Rethinking Human Pose Forecasting

    Nov 19, 2025Daniel Bermuth, Alexander Poeppel, Wolfgang ReifForecasting BenchmarksHuman Pose Estimation

    University of Augsburg, Germany

  13. Measurement-Driven Early Warning for Resilient 5G NSA Railway Networks

    Nov 12, 2025Po-Heng Chou, Da-Chih Lin, Hung-Yu Wei +2Wireless CommunicationsForecasting Benchmarks

    Research Center for Information Technology Innovation (CITI), Academia Sinica (AS), Taipei 11529, Taiwan · Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE), Virginia Tech (VT), Alexandria, VA 22305, USA · Department of Electrical Engineering, National Taiwan University (NTU), Taipei 10617, Taiwan

  14. From Leakage to Fidelity: Reliable Benchmarking for Temporal Cascade Prediction

    Oct 29, 2025Jie Peng, Rui Wang, Qiang Wang +4Forecasting BenchmarksTemporal Data Leakage

    Renmin University of China · Alibaba

  15. fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting

    Sep 30, 2025Oleksandr Shchur, Abdul Fatir Ansari, Caner Turkmen +5Benchmark DesignTime Series Forecasting

    AWS · Keystone AI · Prior Labs +2

  16. Glucose-ML: A collection of longitudinal diabetes datasets for development of robust AI solutions

    Jul 18, 2025Temiloluwa Prioleau, Baiying Lu, Yanjun CuiForecasting BenchmarksBlood Glucose Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science Emory University Atlanta, GA 30322 · Department of Computer Science Dartmouth College Hanover, NH 03755

  17. CanadaFireSat: Toward high-resolution wildfire forecasting with multiple modalities

    Jun 10, 2025Hugo Porta, Emanuele Dalsasso, Jessica L. McCarty +1Wildfire ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    EPFL, Route des Ronquos 86, Sion, 1950, Wallis, Switzerland · Université Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LJK, Grenoble, 38000, France · NASA Ames Research Center, Earth Science Division„ Moffett Field, California, 94035, USA