Importance Sampling

Momentum

7 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 43

May 18, 2026stat.ML

Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures

iffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated score or gradient evaluations, introducing bias, high computational overhead, or both. We introduce \texttt{URGE}, Unbiased Resampling via Girsanov Estimation, a derivative-free inference-time scaling algorithm that performs path-wise importance reweighting via a Girsanov change of measure. Instead of computing gradient-based particle weights in previous work, \texttt{URGE} attaches a simple multiplicative weight to each simulated trajectory and periodically resamples. No score, no Hessian, and no PDE evaluation is required. We establish an equivalence between path-wise and particle-wise SMC: the Girsanov path weight admits a backward conditional expectation that recovers the previous particle-level weights, guaranteeing that both schemes produce the same unbiased terminal law. Empirically, \texttt{URGE} outperforms existing inference-time guidance baselines on synthetic tests and diffusion-model benchmarks, achieving better generation quality, while being significantly simpler to implement and fully gradient-free.
May 15, 2026physics.chem-ph

Reweighting free energy profiles between universal machine learning interatomic potentials for fast consensus building

Free energy profiles serve as a fundamental bridge between microscopic atomic fluctuations and macroscopic thermodynamic observables. Estimating the free energy profile along a reaction coordinate, referred to as the potential of mean force (PMF), with density functional theory (DFT) accuracy is computationally expensive. Universal machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) drastically reduce this cost, but their accuracy is strongly determined by their training data and hence can be uncertain for a given system. In this work, we present a systematic and scalable framework for reweighting PMFs, initially sampled with a single 'source' MLIP, across a representative suite of target MLIPs. Because traditional direct exponential reweighting fails for large system sizes due to low phase-space overlap between potentials, we deploy robust analytical corrections. Applying this to a complex 601-atom system of Li+^+ transport in a nanoconfined electrolyte, we demonstrate that a mean energy-gap approximation effectively bypasses statistical collapse, producing a highly stable PMF matching the target PMF. Using this approach, we recover high-fidelity target thermodynamics across multiple DFT reference levels (PBE+D3, PBE-sol, r2^2SCAN,r2^2SCAN-D4) at a fraction of the computational cost of full simulations. Furthermore, thermodynamic analysis reveals that the studied MLIPs partition into two distinct clusters driven by their training data. Our reweighting framework successfully recovers target thermodynamic properties--specifically, reaction and activation free energies--even when the phase-space overlap between potentials is critically low. Ultimately, this approach establishes a vital diagnostic protocol to achieve affordable cross-model consensus on materials chemistry properties without redundant, resource-intensive simulations.
May 12, 2026cs.LG

Trust the Batch, On- or Off-Policy: Adaptive Policy Optimization for RL Post-Training

Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout systems differ in numerical precision, sampling, and other implementation details. Existing methods manage this fragility by adding hyper-parameters to the training objective, which makes the algorithm more sensitive to its configuration and requires retuning whenever the task, model scale, or distribution mismatch changes. This fragility traces to two concerns that current objectives entangle through hyper-parameters set before training begins: a trust-region concern, that updates should not move the policy too far from its current value, and an off-policy concern, that data from older or different behavior policies should influence the update only to the extent that it remains reliable. Neither concern is a constant to set in advance, and their severity is reflected in the policy-ratio distribution of the current batch. We present a simple yet effective batch-adaptive objective that replaces fixed clipping with the normalized effective sample size of the policy ratios. The same statistic caps the score-function weight and sets the strength of an off-policy regularizer, so the update stays close to the usual on-policy score-function update when ratios are nearly uniform, and tightens automatically when stale or mismatched data cause ratio concentration, while retaining a nonzero learning signal on high-ratio tokens. Experiments across a wide range of settings show that our method matches or exceeds tuned baselines, introducing no new objective hyper-parameters and removing several existing ones. The code is available at https://github.com/FeynRL-project/FeynRL.
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Disagreement-Regularized Importance Sampling for Adversarial Label Corruption

Standard Importance Sampling (IS) collapses under label corruption because high-norm examples, prioritized for variance reduction, are often adversarial outliers. We formalize this misalignment using an ε\varepsilon-contamination model and propose Disagreement-Regularized Importance Sampling (DR-IS), a sub-sampling method based on loss rank-disagreement across independent proxy ensemble. We prove finite-sample concentration bounds showing that the empirical rank disagreement of bulk corrupted examples is bounded above, and that of boundary-clean examples bounded below, both at rate O(log⁡(N/δ)/K)O(\sqrt{\log(N/δ)/K}) with probability 1−δ1-δ; when the structural expectation gap Δ′Δ' between the two groups is positive and the boundary-clean set is at least as large as the selected subset, these bounds certify strict separation and control the contamination rate of the selected subset. Empirically, DR-IS remains robust under targeted high-norm attacks that break magnitude-based methods such as the Error L2L_2-norm (EL2N) on benchmark datasets. DR-IS complements training-dynamics approaches like Area Under the Margin ranking (AUM), offering improved robustness in the loss-aligned regime alongside explicit finite-sample concentration certificates and a contamination bound limiting noise leakage from the statistical tail of corrupted points.
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Rethinking Importance Sampling in LLM Policy Optimization: A Cumulative Token Perspective

Reinforcement learning, including reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), has emerged as a powerful approach for LLM post-training. Central to these approaches is the design of the importance sampling (IS) ratio used in off-policy policy-gradient estimation. Existing methods face a fundamental bias-variance dilemma: token-level IS ratios, as adopted by PPO (Schulman et al., 2017) and GRPO (Shao et al., 2024), introduce bias by ignoring prefix state distribution mismatch; full sequence ratios provide exact trajectory-level correction but suffer from high variance due to the multiplicative accumulation of per-token ratios, while GSPO (Zheng et al., 2025) improves numerical stability via length normalization at the cost of deviating from the exact full-sequence IS correction. In this work, we identify the cumulative token IS ratio, the product of per-token ratios up to position tt, as a theoretically principled solution to this dilemma. We prove that, under the token-level policy-gradient formulation, this ratio provides an unbiased prefix correction for each token-level gradient term and has strictly lower variance than the full sequence ratio. Building on this insight, we propose CTPO (Cumulative Token Policy Optimization), which combines the cumulative token IS ratio with position-adaptive clipping that scales log-space clip bounds according to the natural t\sqrt{t} growth of the cumulative log-ratio. This yields more consistent regularization across token positions. We implement and evaluate CTPO in the tool-integrated reasoning setting on several challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, achieving the best average performance across both model scales compared with strong GRPO and GSPO baselines. Code will be available at https://github.com/horizon-llm/CTPO.
May 3, 2026cs.LG

Weight Clipping for Robust Conformal Inference under Unbounded Covariate Shifts

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal prediction (WCP) is designed to handle such shifts, it can suffer from significant undercoverage when the density ratio between the distributions is unbounded and/or must be learned. This is because of both overfitting in learning the density ratio, and high variance in estimating the nonconformity score threshold. To address this, we introduce clipped least-squares importance fitting (CLISF) as a reduced-variance method for density ratio estimation. Specifically, we show that density ratios learned using CLISF, when plugged into WCP, have bounded expected undercoverage. Furthermore, we show that the undercoverage can be corrected by running WCP with a slightly inflated coverage target; crucially, we are able to estimate the required level of inflation from the data. We provide the first theoretical guarantees for weight clipping in conformal inference, achieving dataset-conditional coverage with a sample complexity that does not blow up with the higher moments of the true density ratio -- a key limitation of prior work. We verify our results on real-world benchmarks and synthetic data.
Apr 24, 2026stat.ML

Pack only the essentials: Adaptive dictionary learning for kernel ridge regression

One of the major limits of kernel ridge regression (KRR) is that storing and manipulating the kernel matrix K_n for n samples requires O(n^2) space, which rapidly becomes unfeasible for large n. Nystrom approximations reduce the space complexity to O(nm) by sampling m columns from K_n. Uniform sampling preserves KRR accuracy (up to epsilon) only when m is proportional to the maximum degree of freedom of K_n, which may require O(n) columns for datasets with high coherence. Sampling columns according to their ridge leverage scores (RLS) gives accurate Nystrom approximations with m proportional to the effective dimension, but computing exact RLS also requires O(n^2) space. (Calandriello et al. 2016) propose INK-Estimate, an algorithm that processes the dataset incrementally and updates RLS, effective dimension, and Nystrom approximations on-the-fly. Its space complexity scales with the effective dimension but introduces a dependency on the largest eigenvalue of K_n, which in the worst case is O(n). In this paper we introduce SQUEAK, a new algorithm that builds on INK-Estimate but uses unnormalized RLS. As a consequence, the algorithm is simpler, does not need to estimate the effective dimension for normalization, and achieves a space complexity that is only a constant factor worse than exact RLS sampling.
Apr 24, 2026cs.LG

Estimating Tail Risks in Language Model Output Distributions

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk
Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

How to Approximate Inference with Subtractive Mixture Models

Classical mixture models (MMs) are widely used tractable proposals for approximate inference settings such as variational inference (VI) and importance sampling (IS). Recently, mixture models with negative coefficients, called subtractive mixture models (SMMs), have been proposed as a potentially more expressive alternative. However, how to effectively use SMMs for VI and IS is still an open question as they do not provide latent variable semantics and therefore cannot use sampling schemes for classical MMs. In this work, we study how to circumvent this issue by designing several expectation estimators for IS and learning schemes for VI with SMMs, and we empirically evaluate them for distribution approximation. Finally, we discuss the additional challenges in estimation stability and learning efficiency that they carry and propose ways to overcome them. Code is available at: https://github.com/april-tools/delta-vi.
Apr 16, 2026cs.LG

Beyond Importance Sampling: Rejection-Gated Policy Optimization

We propose a new perspective on policy optimization: rather than reweighting all samples by their importance ratios, an optimizer should select which samples are trustworthy enough to drive a policy update. Building on this view, we introduce Rejection-Gated Policy Optimization (RGPO), which replaces the importance sampling ratio r_theta = pi_theta / pi_old with a smooth, differentiable acceptance gate alpha_theta(s, a) = g(r_theta(s, a)) in the range [0, 1]. Unlike prior work that applies rejection sampling as a data-level heuristic before training, RGPO elevates rejection to an optimization principle: the gate participates directly in gradient computation and is implicitly updated alongside the policy. RGPO provides a unified framework: the policy gradients of TRPO, PPO, and REINFORCE all correspond to specific choices of the effective gradient weight w(r) = g'(r) * r. We prove that RGPO guarantees finite, bounded gradient variance even when importance sampling ratios are heavy-tailed (where IS variance diverges). We further show that RGPO incurs only a bounded, controllable bias and provides an approximate monotonic policy improvement guarantee analogous to TRPO. RGPO matches PPO in computational cost, requires no second-order optimization, and extends naturally to RLHF-style preference alignment. In online preference fine-tuning of Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct on Anthropic HH-RLHF (n = 3 seeds), RGPO uses a dual-ratio gate that anchors learning to both the previous policy and the reference model, achieving a Pareto-dominant outcome: the highest reward among online RL methods (+14.8% vs. PPO-RLHF) and the lowest KL divergence to the reference model (-16.0% vs. PPO-RLHF, -53.1% vs. GRPO).
Mar 18, 2026eess.IV

Structured SIR: Efficient and Expressive Importance-Weighted Inference for High-Dimensional Image Registration

Image registration is an ill-posed dense vision task, where multiple solutions achieve similar loss values, motivating probabilistic inference. Variational inference has previously been employed to capture these distributions, however restrictive assumptions about the posterior form can lead to poor characterisation, overconfidence and low-quality samples. More flexible posteriors are typically bottlenecked by the complexity of high-dimensional covariance matrices required for dense 3D image registration. In this work, we present a memory and computationally efficient inference method, Structured SIR, that enables expressive, multi-modal, characterisation of uncertainty with high quality samples. We propose the use of a Sampled Importance Resampling (SIR) algorithm with a novel memory-efficient high-dimensional covariance parameterisation as the sum of a low-rank covariance and a sparse, spatially structured Cholesky precision factor. This structure enables capturing complex spatial correlations while remaining computationally tractable. We evaluate the efficacy of this approach in 3D dense image registration of brain MRI data, which is a very high-dimensional problem. We demonstrate that our proposed method produces uncertainty estimates that are significantly better calibrated than those produced by variational methods, achieving equivalent or better accuracy. Crucially, we show that the model yields highly structured multi-modal posterior distributions, enable effective and efficient uncertainty quantification.
Nov 25, 2025cs.LG

Stabilizing Off-Policy Training for Long-Horizon LLM Agent via Turn-Level Importance Sampling and Clipping-Triggered Normalization

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms such as PPO and GRPO are widely used to train large language models (LLMs) for multi-turn agentic tasks. However, in off-policy training pipelines, these methods can exhibit unstable optimization dynamics and are prone to perfor- mance collapse. Through empirical analysis, we identify two fundamental sources of instability in this setting: (1) a granularity mismatch between token-level policy optimization and turn- structured interactions, and (2) high-variance and unreliable gradient updates induced by off- policy importance sampling and inaccurate advantage estimation. To address these challenges, we propose SORL, Stabilizing Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning for Long-Horizon Agent Train- ing. SORL introduces mechanisms that align policy optimization with the structure of multi- turn interactions and adaptively suppress unreliable off-policy updates, yielding more conserva- tive and robust learning dynamics. Within this framework, we instantiate two stabilized algo- rithms: SO-PPO and SO-GRPO. Both algorithms are designed to mitigate gradient variance and prevent optimization collapse without requiring careful early stopping or heuristic tuning. We evaluate SO-PPO and SO-GRPO on benchmarks spanning open-domain QA, multi-hop QA, and medical multiple-choice QA, and further assess their transfer to asynchronous RL for mathe- matical reasoning by training on DAPO-Math-17k and validating on AIME-2024. These results demonstrate that SORL provides a practical, scalable, and general framework for stabilizing re- inforcement learning in multi-turn LLM agent training and asynchronous RL for mathematical reasoning.
Nov 21, 2025cs.CV

Score-Regularized Joint Sampling with Importance Weights for Flow Matching

Flow matching models effectively represent complex distributions, yet estimating expectations of functions of their outputs remains challenging under limited sampling budgets. Independent sampling often yields high-variance estimates, especially when rare but high-impact outcomes dominate the expectation. We propose a non-IID sampling framework that jointly draws multiple samples to cover diverse, salient regions of a flow matching model's generative distribution. To balance diversity and quality, we introduce a score-based regularization for the diversity mechanism (SR), which uses the score function, i.e., the gradient of the log probability, to ensure samples are pushed apart within high-density regions of the data manifold, mitigating off-manifold drift. To enable unbiased estimation when desired, we further develop an approach for importance weighting of non-IID flow samples by learning a residual velocity field that reproduces the marginal distribution of the non-IID samples and by evolving importance weights along trajectories. Empirically, our method produces diverse, high-quality samples and accurate importance-weight estimates and debiased expectation estimates, advancing the reliable characterization of flow matching model outputs.