Weighted Conformal Prediction

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Overview

Weighted conformal prediction studies how to form prediction sets and intervals with reliable coverage when calibration and deployment data have different distributions. It reweights calibration scores using estimated density ratios, kernel matching, or local and temporal similarity, then applies weighted quantiles or conformal p-values. These methods are used for covariate and label shift, online and federated prediction, and settings such as molecular design, forecasting, and medical imaging. A central tension is that weighting can improve relevance to deployment data but unstable estimates, limited support overlap, and uncertain weights can weaken guarantees or make predictions wider; sharper conditional guarantees and efficient, robust calibration remain open challenges.

Latest papers

CardsList

29 papers2 papers in the last four weeks, down 75% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Backward Conformal Prediction under Covariate Shift

    Oct 12, 2026Amin Meghrazi, Yuanyuan LiConformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    The Ohio State University · Munich RE

  2. Quantifying Volumetric Risk: Class-Aware Asymmetric Weighted Conformal Prediction for 3D Medical Image Segmentation

    Oct 7, 2026Shadi Alijani, Fereshteh Aghaee Meibodi, Homayoun NajjaranConformal PredictionSegmentation Uncertainty Estimation

    University of Victoria, 800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada

  3. Sharp training-conditional coverage for conformal prediction under covariate shift

    Sep 27, 2026Mehrdad PournaderiWeighted Conformal PredictionSet Prediction

    Mofid Securities

  4. Conformal Prediction under Exponential-Tilt Joint Shift

    Sep 25, 2026Seungjin ChoiDistribution Shift RobustnessDistribution Shift

    CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea

  5. Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Logging

    Sep 25, 2026Xinyu Qiao, Yichen Lin, Kaihong Ji +2Conformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China · Alibaba Group

  6. GeoDose-CP: Graph-Local Conformal Inference for Continuous-Treatment Earth Observation

    Sep 24, 2026Md Khalid Hasan Sakib, Dristi Datta, Manoranjan Paul +1Weighted Conformal PredictionCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Uttara University, Dhaka, Bangladesh · School of Computing, Mathematics and Engineering, Charles Sturt University, Bathurst, NSW 2795, Australia · Australian Integrated Carbon (AiCarbon), Level 4, 191 Pulteney Street, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia

  7. Calibration Count Reuse: Validity Does Not Determine Efficiency

    Sep 21, 2026Rudra ChopraConformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

  8. Conformal Individual Treatment Effect Estimation under Networked Interference

    Sep 14, 2026Matteo Zecchin, Osvaldo SimeoneWeighted Conformal PredictionCausal Effect Estimation

    Communication Systems Department, EURECOM, Sophia Antipolis, France · Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK

  9. Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

    Sep 10, 2026Ann-Kristin Malz, Gregory Ashton, Nicolo ColomboWeighted Conformal PredictionGravitational-Wave Astronomy

    Department of Physics, Royal Holloway, University of London · School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton · Department of Computer Science, Royal Holloway University of London

  10. Conformal Calibration Transfer

    Sep 9, 2026Achref DoulaWeighted Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany · Tongji University, Shanghai, China.

  11. Conformal Bayes under Continuous Label Shift: Sensitivity Analysis and the Limits of Exact Validity

    Aug 24, 2026Seungjin ChoiConformal PredictionLabel Shift

    CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea

  12. CS-WCP: Robust Conformal Sets for LLM-Judge Traffic Shifts with Uncertain Group Proportions

    Aug 23, 2026Ibne Farabi Shihab, Fariya AfrinConformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University · Department of Computer Science, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology

  13. Conformal Prediction for Molecular Properties under Label Shift

    Aug 18, 2026Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba +2Conformal PredictionLabel Shift

    Mogam Institute for Biomedical Research · Intellicode

  14. Dynamic Regime-Aware Conformal Calibration for Reliable Economic Forecast Intervals under Multiple Distribution Shifts

    Aug 17, 2026Bogdan OanceaWeighted Conformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    University of Bucharest, Romania · National Institute of Research and Development for Biological Sciences

  15. Weighted Conformal Prediction for Lab-to-Track Thermal Transfer in EV Motorsport Powertrains

    Jul 2, 2026Varshith Roy KotlaWeighted Conformal PredictionDomain Adaptation

    Department of CSE, Faculty of Science and Technology, The ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education, Hyderabad, India

  16. Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data

    Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneWeighted Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    aUniversity of Texas Rio Grande Valley, United States · bFlorida International University, United States

  17. Conformal Candidate Certification for Offline Model-Based Optimization

    Jun 13, 2026Seungjin ChoiWeighted Conformal PredictionDistribution Shift

    CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

  18. Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation

    Jun 10, 2026Seungjin ChoiWeighted Conformal PredictionLabel Shift

    1CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

  19. Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts

    Jun 9, 2026Jef Jonkers, Johanna ZiegelDistribution Shift RobustnessWeighted Conformal Prediction

    IDLab Department of Electronics and Information Systems Ghent University Ghent, Belgium · Seminar for Statistics ETH Zurich Zurich, Switzerland

  20. Multi-Agent Conformal Prediction with Personalized Statistical Validity

    May 30, 2026Martin V. Vejling, Christophe A. N. Biscio, Adrien Mazoyer +2Weighted Conformal PredictionFederated Conformal Prediction

    Department of Electronic Systems Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark · Department of Mathematical Sciences Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark · Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France

  21. Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data

    May 18, 2026Daohong Tu, Kay GieseckeWeighted Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    Department of Management Science and Engineering Stanford University

  22. RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Prediction

    May 9, 2026Manuel Heurich, Maximilian Granz, Tim LandgrafWeighted Conformal PredictionTime Series Forecasting

    Institute for Computer Science Freie Universität Berlin Arnimallee 7 14195 Berlin

  23. Weight Clipping for Robust Conformal Inference under Unbounded Covariate Shifts

    May 3, 2026James Wang, Surbhi GoelDistribution Shift RobustnessWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.

  24. Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

    Apr 7, 2026Xiayin Lou, Peng LuoConformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Technical University of Munich · Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  25. Conformalized Signal Temporal Logic Inference under Covariate Shift

    Mar 28, 2026Yixuan Wang, Danyang Li, Matthew Cleaveland +2Signal Temporal LogicConformal Prediction

    Mingyu Cai and Yixuan Wang are with Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA, 92521, USA. · Danyang Li and Roberto Tron are with Mechanical Engineering, Boston University. · Matthew Cleaveland is with MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, 02421, USA

  26. KMM-CP: Practical Conformal Prediction under Covariate Shift via Selective Kernel Mean Matching

    Mar 27, 2026Siddhartha Laghuvarapu, Rohan Deb, Jimeng SunWeighted Conformal PredictionCovariate Shift

    Siebel School of Computing and Data Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA.

  27. Between Resolution Collapse and Variance Inflation: Weighted Conformal Anomaly Detection in Low-Data Regimes

    Mar 24, 2026Oliver Hennhöfer, Christine PreisachAnomaly DetectionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Intelligent Systems Research Group (ISRG), Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences, Germany

  28. ConfHit: Conformal Generative Design with Oracle Free Guarantees

    Mar 7, 2026Siddhartha Laghuvarapu, Ying Jin, Jimeng SunMolecular GenerationWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Siebel School of Computing and Data Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Wharton School, University of Pennysylvania, PA, USA

  29. Conformalized Neural Networks for Federated Uncertainty Quantification under Dual Heterogeneity

    Feb 26, 2026Quang-Huy Nguyen, Jiaqi Wang, Wei-Shinn KuFederated Conformal PredictionUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Auburn University