Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

Landslides are widespread geological hazards, yet their automated detection and mapping in remote sensing imagery remain challenging because of their irregular morphology, ambiguous spectral signatures, and substantial domain shifts across imaging platforms. To overcome these challenges, we propose EarthLD, a vision-language-guided diffusion framework for open-world landslide understanding, enabling unified landslide recognition, mapping, and trigger interpretation. At its core, EarthLD formulates landslide understanding as a diffusion process that progressively infers the presence, spatial extent, and pixel-level boundaries of landslides from noisy latent representations. This probabilistic formulation enables the model to jointly perform image-level landslide recognition and mapping while characterizing predictive uncertainty. By integrating visual observations with contextual knowledge in the denoising process, EarthLD distinguishes diverse landslides from backgrounds, produces confidence-aware predictions for suspected regions, and maps landslide ranges. We additionally construct a global-scale open-world landslide benchmark by systematically harmonizing multiple publicly available remote sensing data collected by diverse institutions. Extensive experiments across regions, sensors, and triggering events demonstrate that EarthLD consistently outperforms existing landslide detection methods, highlighting its potential as a unified and robust solution for global geological-hazard monitoring and emergency response.

Data-driven methods are widely used in landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) because they can effectively model the complex relationships between landslides and geo-environmental conditions. Existing data-driven approaches generally follow two types of data representations. Pixel-based models focus solely on the geo-environmental characteristics of a specific landslide but neglect the influence of its surrounding environment. Patch-based models incorporate surrounding spatial context but may include pixels with weak or no spatial relevance to the target landslide location. To address this limitation, this study proposes a Local-Geo and Spatial Context Fusion (LGSCF) strategy, which synergises the geo-environmental characteristics of landslide points with their corresponding spatial context through a feature-wise modulation mechanism. We tested the LGSCF strategy by integrating it into several representative convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures, creating nine different LGSCF-based models. The primary study area covers approximately 2644 km2 across Jenai and Sinyi Townships in Nantou County, Taiwan, and the dataset comprises 5332 landslide samples and an equal number of non-landslide samples. The results show that LGSCF-based models consistently outperform their corresponding baselines, achieving F1-scores up to 87.09% and AUC values up to 0.9472. Furthermore, the susceptibility maps produced by LGSCF-based models show that known landslides are more accurately concentrated in "very high" susceptibility zones with fewer misclassifications. These findings demonstrate that our fusion strategy can significantly improve the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping.

Natural hazard susceptibility mapping is often constrained by limited labeled data, reducing the generalizability of conventional machine learning and limiting the applicability of complex deep learning models. This study proposes SAGE (Spatially Augmented Graph Embeddings), a structurally informed feature-engineering framework that combines controlled noise-based data augmentation with neighborhood-based graph embeddings to improve prediction under data-scarce conditions. A K-nearest neighbor graph is constructed to derive local spatial statistics, which are reduced using principal component analysis and integrated with environmental covariates and spatial coordinates. The resulting features are used with XGBoost to develop the SAGE-XGBoost model. The framework was evaluated for landslide and wildfire susceptibility mapping. SAGE-XGBoost consistently outperformed conventional and spatially explicit machine learning models. Compared with Spatial XGBoost, it achieved an absolute improvement of above 33 percentage points across the two case studies. The model reached AUC values of approximately 0.97 for landslide susceptibility and 0.95 for wildfire susceptibility. Feature importance analysis confirmed the contribution of graph embeddings to prediction, while their integration improved spatial coherence and reduced local noise amplification. Overall, SAGE-XGBoost provides an efficient and transferable alternative to deep representation learning for environmental hazard assessment and other geospatial prediction tasks under limited supervision.

Two free satellite signals carry real information about glacial-lake outburst risk in the Nepal Himalaya: radar interferometry sees a moraine dam slowly sagging, and satellite weather marks the weeks when a primed lake is under stress. A companion feasibility study found that deformation indicates which lake is destabilizing and weather indicates when it is at risk, but proposed no predictive model. To address this gap, we propose and evaluate models that predict which site is susceptible and when a trigger arrives. We test three related hazards on free data alone: large moraine- and ice-dammed bursts, rainfall-triggered landslides, and smaller floods from ponds on and around a glacier. Each hazard gets two questions, never blended. Using 589 dated outbursts from HMAGLOFDB and several thousand catalogued landslides, we match each event against similar but unfailed sites, and hold every model to a strong simple baseline under spatial cross-validation that withholds whole map tiles, so no model succeeds by recognising a trained-on neighbourhood. Antecedent weather times the trigger at ROC 0.73 for big bursts, 0.83 for landslides, and 0.82 for small floods. Terrain ranks susceptibility only in part: scored naively it appears near 0.9, largely because catalogued failures cluster in wetter ranges; matched against comparable nearby sites the honest figures are 0.76, 0.71, and 0.54 (no better than chance). The burst signal holds within single regions, reaching 0.89 in Nepal alone. Five deep-learning models do not decisively beat a simple gradient-boosted baseline. Three score marginally higher on landslides, a hint too small to confirm. For the lake hazards the baseline wins outright, reproduced by a three-rule decision tree on ruggedness and monsoon rainfall. We close with a ranked Nepal watchlist, a prioritisation aid, not a prediction, and note where free data reaches its limits.

Floods and landslides often co-occur, but their relationships with environmental controls vary spatially. This study develops a spatial heterogeneity-aware framework for flood-landslide susceptibility and relative-risk mapping in Kerala, India, and Nepal. It combines 15 km x 15 km grid cells with region-specific contextual zones and compares proximity-gated cross-zone training (S1) and ecology-gated zone-constrained training (S2). S1 permits geographically nearby models to be assigned across contextual boundaries, whereas S2 restricts model development and assignment to the same zone. Random Forest models for each hazard use strategy-specific predictor sets and are evaluated on spatially held-out test samples. Susceptibility surfaces are integrated with CRITIC-weighted exposure and vulnerability indices to produce hazard-specific and nine-class bivariate relative-risk maps. S1 achieved higher mean accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, AUC-ROC, and PR-AUC for both hazards and regions. The largest difference occurred for Nepal flood susceptibility, where AUC-ROC increased from 0.728 under S2 to 0.886 under S1 and PR-AUC from 0.512 to 0.823. S2 produced lower Brier scores for both Nepal hazards and retained zone-specific differences in predictor selection, SHAP rankings, and response patterns, particularly in Kerala. Both strategies reproduced flood-prone lowland and landslide-prone upland patterns but differed in susceptibility and risk classes. Bivariate risk-map agreement was 0.521 in Kerala and 0.711 in Nepal, with allocation disagreement exceeding quantity disagreement in all S1-S2 comparisons. Susceptibility-to-risk correspondence remained below 0.350, showing that exposure and vulnerability changed priority locations. Overall, cross-zone learning strengthens regional discrimination, while zone-constrained learning preserves environmental differences, supporting their integration.

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate near-future landslide risk by integrating observed rainfall with short-term rainfall forecasts from spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Although recent landslide prediction methods have improved predictive performance using statistical and deep learning approaches, most assume accurate rainfall inputs. In operational settings, however, landslide prediction relies on rainfall forecasts, which often contain spatial displacement of rainfall fields due to forecasting uncertainties. Such displacement can alter local accumulated rainfall and degrade prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel LEWS robust to rainfall field displacement. The key idea is to learn latent representations from rainfall and terrain data that remain stable under displacement in rainfall field motion, enabling reliable geospatial data integration for landslide risk estimation. The landslide prediction model is trained using Rainfall-Motion-Aware Contrastive Learning (RMCL), which introduces temporally correlated rainfall field perturbations to emulate forecast-induced displacement in rainfall-driven spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Experiments were conducted using two years of rainfall and terrain data across Japan, covering 19 regions with landslide events. The proposed system achieved up to 37% higher precision than state-of-the-art baselines. These results demonstrate that modeling rainfall as a moving spatial field and addressing rainfall field displacement during learning significantly improve the reliability of short-term landslide prediction in operational early warning systems.

Landslide susceptibility prediction is critical for geohazard risk assessment and mitigation. Conventional data-driven paradigm achieves high predictive accuracy but require sufficient conditioning factors and large-scale landslide inventories. However, in practical engineering applications across mountainous and plateau regions, data-scarce conditions are commonly observed, where such data requirements are rarely satisfied, rendering conventional data-driven paradigm inapplicable. To address this issue, we propose a knowledge-data dually driven paradigm for accurate landslide susceptibility prediction under data-scarce conditions. The essential idea behind the proposed novel paradigm is the integration of the geomorphic prior knowledge with scarce landslide data. To validate the proposed paradigm, we first applied it to a data-rich region in central Italy, where a conventional data-driven paradigm trained on the full dataset served as the baseline. By utilizing only 30% of the available landslide data, the proposed paradigm achieved comparable predictive accuracy to the baseline, demonstrating its effectiveness under data-scarce conditions. The paradigm was further evaluated in a genuinely data-scarce environment for application, the Qilian Permafrost Region of the Tibetan Plateau, where it also yielded reliable susceptibility predictions, confirming its applicability under data-scarce conditions.

Landslide investigation relies on sufficient and well-balanced observational data influenced by geological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors. Available landslide inventories are often sparse and imbalanced, which limits understanding of triggering conditions and failure mechanisms. Data generation provides an effective approach to help capture feature dependencies from limited landslide observations. However, existing generation approaches for landslides often struggle to capture complex relationships among features and lack robustness across multiple scenarios and interacting factors. Here, we propose an accurate and robust approach for generating multi-feature landslide datasets by utilizing a tabular foundation model. By leveraging the capacity to learn from limited observations, the proposed approach effectively preserves the multivariate dependencies and statistical characteristics inherent in landslide occurrences. Comparative experiments on 20 landslide inventories demonstrate that the generated datasets closely align with observed distributions, maintain realistic feature dependencies, and exhibit robustness across different environmental contexts. This work provides an effective approach to overcome data sparsity and imbalance and strengthens landslide susceptibility modeling and risk assessment under limited observations.

Existing multi-hazard susceptibility mapping (MHSM) studies often rely on spatially uniform models, treat hazards independently, and provide limited representation of cross-hazard dependence and uncertainty. To address these limitations, this study proposes a deep learning (DL) workflow for joint flood-landslide multi-hazard susceptibility mapping (FL-MHSM) that combines two-level spatial partitioning, probabilistic Early Fusion (EF), a tree-based Late Fusion (LF) baseline, and a soft-gating Mixture of Experts (MoE) model, with MoE serving as final predictive model. The proposed design preserves spatial heterogeneity through zonal partitions and enables data-parallel large-area prediction using overlapping lattice grids. In Kerala, EF remained competitive with LF, improving flood recall from 0.816 to 0.840 and reducing Brier score from 0.092 to 0.086, while MoE provided strongest performance for flood susceptibility, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.905, recall of 0.930, and F1-score of 0.722. In Nepal, EF similarly improved flood recall from 0.820 to 0.858 and reduced Brier score from 0.057 to 0.049 relative to LF, while MoE outperformed both EF and LF for landslide susceptibility, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.914, recall of 0.901, and F1-score of 0.559. GeoDetector analysis of MoE outputs further showed that dominant factors varied more across zones in Kerala, where susceptibility was shaped by different combinations of topographic, land-cover, and drainage-related controls, while Nepal showed a more consistent influence of topographic and glacier-related factors across zones. These findings show that EF and LF provide complementary predictive behavior, and that their spatially adaptive integration through MoE yields robust overall predictive performance for FL-MHSM while supporting interpretable characterization of multi-hazard susceptibility in spatially heterogeneous landscapes.

Data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) typically relies on landslide conditioning factors (LCFs), whose availability, heterogeneity, and preprocessing-related uncertainties can constrain mapping reliability. Recently, Google AlphaEarth (AE) embeddings, derived from multi-source geospatial observations, have emerged as a unified representation of Earth surface conditions. This study evaluated the potential of AE embeddings as alternative predictors for LSM. Two AE representations, including retained principal components and the full set of 64 embedding bands, were systematically compared with conventional LCFs across three study areas (Nantou County, Taiwan; Hong Kong; and part of Emilia-Romagna, Italy) using three deep learning models (CNN1D, CNN2D, and Vision Transformer). Performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics, ROC-AUC analysis, error statistics, and spatial pattern assessment. Results showed that AE-based models consistently outperformed LCFs across all regions and models, yielding higher F1-scores, AUC values, and more stable error distributions. Such improvement was most pronounced when using the full 64-band AE representation, with F1-score improvements of approximately 4% to 15% and AUC increased ranging from 0.04 to 0.11, depending on the study area and model. AE-based susceptibility maps also exhibited clearer spatial correspondence with observed landslide occurrences and enhanced sensitivity to localised landslide-prone conditions. Performance improvements were more evident in Nantou and Emilia than in Hong Kong. SHAP analysis further revealed regional variability in the contribution of individual AE bands, while several bands showed consistently high importance across all three study areas. These findings highlight the strong potential of AE embeddings as a standardised and information-rich alternative to conventional LCFs for LSM.