Event Time Prediction

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3 papers in the last four weeks, down 25% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer: Integrating Heterogeneous Context for Process Event Prediction
Sep 21, 2026Fabian Spaeh, Jingxing Fang, Shandian Zhe +1Event Time Prediction Predictive Process Monitoring
Celonis
Horizon-Aware Early Event Prediction for Tokamak Disruption Alarms
Sep 21, 2026Takeshi Koshizuka, Takaharu YaguchiEvent Time Prediction Survival Analysis
RIKEN AIP, Japan. · Kyushu University IMI, Fukuoka, Japan.
Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting
Sep 14, 2026Aditi Tiwari, Aashrith Bandaru, Heng JiEvent Time Prediction Selective Prediction
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA
Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data
Sep 1, 2026Elizaveta Sivak, Emily M. Cantrell, Thomas Emery +109Event Time Prediction Tabular Prediction
INTERVenE: Temporal-Abstraction-Interval Based Transformers for Short-Horizon Medical Event Prediction
Aug 30, 2026Shahar Oded, Yuval ShaharEvent Time Prediction Interpretable ML
The Stein Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel
Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods
Aug 12, 2026Matthew Kahn, Milan Arjel, Nirmala Adhikari +2Event Time Prediction
Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, United States of America · Department of Electronics and Computer Engineering, Purwanchal Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Dharan, Nepal · Department of Physics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America +2
Certifying What Helps Customer-Return Timing: A Screen-and-Confirm Test for Conditioning Signals, and Why Decay Is Nearly Enough
Aug 12, 2026Sang Su Lee, Vineeth Loganathan, Shishir Dash +1Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes
Thumbtack, Inc. San Francisco, CA, USA
GTIN: A Unified Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs
Jul 26, 2026Mohammad Ostadmohammadi, Sepehr Kazemi, Hamid R. RabieeEvent Time Prediction Dynamic Graph Learning
Department of Computer Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran · Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran · Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran
GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs
Jul 16, 2026Xiangni Tian, Kaixian Yu, Runpeng Dai +2Event Time Prediction Temporal Link Prediction
Yunnan Key Laboratory of Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis, Yunnan University, Kunming, China · Insilicom LLC, Peabody, MA, USA · University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
A Temporal Machine Learning-Based Time-to-Event Model for Predicting ALS Progression and Healthcare Utilization
Jul 15, 2026Zongliang Yue, Qi Li, Terry Heiman-Patterson +3Event Time Prediction Survival Analysis
Department of Health Outcomes Research and Policy, Harrison College of Pharmacy, Auburn University Auburn, AL, USA
ReDiTT: Retrieval Augmented Conditional Diffusion Transformers for Asynchronous Time Series
Jul 14, 2026Saiyue Lyu, Zhitian Zhang, Ruizhi Deng +1Irregular Time-Series Modeling Event Time Prediction
Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia · Work done during an internship at RBC Borealis. · RBC Borealis
Dynamic Prediction of Alternating Recurrent Events via Neural Network
Jun 29, 2026Abigail Loe, Susan Murry, Zhenke WuEvent Time Prediction Survival Analysis
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Macalester College, Saint Paul, Minnesota, U.S.A. · Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A.
Next-Turn: Duration-Aware Streaming Endpoint Detection via Time-to-Next-Speech-Onset Prediction
Jun 16, 2026Tristan Tsoi, Jiajun Deng, Yingke Zhu +5Event Time Prediction Streaming ASR
Central Media Technology Institute, Huawei · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Nanyang Technological University
Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting
Jun 14, 2026Amit Arnold LevyEvent Time Prediction RL for Language Models
University of Oxford
When Cognitive Graphs Meet LLMs: BDEI Cognitive Pathways for Panic Emotional Arousal Prediction
Jun 13, 2026Mengzhu Liu, Long Qin, Chuan Ai +7Event Time Prediction Computational Cognitive Modeling
National Key Laboratory of Digital Intelligent Modeling and Simulation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, Hunan Province, China · College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China +1
Fusion is not one-size-fits-all: Cross-Modal Representation Alignment for Time-to-Event Modeling
Jun 13, 2026Zhemin Zhang, Weijie Chen, David Le +7Event Time Prediction Multimodal Robustness
Arizona State University · Mayo Clinic
WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning
Jun 10, 2026Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding +1Event Time Prediction LLM Agent Evaluation
Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Cambridge
GLIDE: Graph-guided Leap Inference for Diffusion Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Point Processes
May 31, 2026Guanyu Zhou, Yao Liu, Yanglei Gan +5Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
UME: A Unified Meta-Generalization Framework for Cross-Domain ETA
May 31, 2026Duo Wang, Qiong Wu, Jianguo Wu +9Event Time Prediction Meta-Learning
Peking University · Meituan
Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence
May 21, 2026Sean Wu, Pan Lu, Yupeng Chen +7Event Time Prediction Scientific Discovery
University of Oxford · Stanford University · Allen Institute for AI +1
HEPA: A Self-Supervised Horizon-Conditioned Event Predictive Architecture for Time Series
May 11, 2026Jonas Petersen, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Riccardo Maggioni +3Event Time Prediction Self-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning
1ETH Zurich · 2Forgis · University of Vienna
Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series
May 6, 2026Ivica Dimitrovski, Ivan Kitanovski, Danco Davcev +2Event Time Prediction Time Series Forecasting
Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering University Ss Cyril and Methodius Skopje 1000, North Macedonia
Forecasting Source Stability in Scientific Experiments using Temporal Learning Models: A Case Study from Tritium Monitoring
May 2, 2026Nicholas Tan Jerome, Nadia Aouadi, Christoph Koehler +2Event Time Prediction Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Institute for Data Processing and Electronics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Schmalkalden University of Applied Sciences, Schmalkalden, Germany · Technical University Munich, Garching, Germany +1
Towards Event-Aware Forecasting in DeFi: Insights from On-chain Automated Market Maker Protocols
Apr 22, 2026Huaiyu Jia, Jiehshun You, Yizhi Luo +2Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes
HKUST(GZ) · GUANGZHOU, China · Hong Kong Polytechnic University +1
EVIL: Evolving Interpretable Algorithms for Zero-Shot Inference on Event Sequences and Time Series with LLMs
Apr 17, 2026David BerghausEvent Time Prediction Time Series Imputation
Lamarr Institute · Fraunhofer IAIS
Capture Timing-Attention of Events in Clinical Time Series
Feb 11, 2026Jia Li, Yu Hou, Rui ZhangEvent Time Prediction Healthcare
Department of Surgery; Department of Computer Science, U of M Minneapolis, MN, USA
Probabilistic Multi-Agent Aircraft Landing Time Prediction
Dec 9, 2025Kyungmin Kim, Seokbin Yoon, Keumjin LeeEvent Time Prediction Air Traffic Management
Korea Aerospace University, Goyang, 10540, South Korea · Department of Advanced Air Transportation · Department of Air Transport, Transportation, and Logistics
State-Change Learning for Prediction of Future Events in Endoscopic Videos
Oct 14, 2025Saurav Sharma, Chinedu Innocent Nwoye, Didier Mutter +1Event Time Prediction Surgical Video Understanding
University of Strasbourg, CNRS, INSERM, ICube, UMR7357, France · IHU Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France · University Hospital of Strasbourg, France
Edge Selection for the Effective use of Piecewise-Constant Distributions as Neural Network Outputs for Event Prediction
Jul 29, 2025Kevin Doran, Tom BadenEvent Time Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting
School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, UK · School of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, UK · Institute of Ophthalmic Research, University of Tübingen, Germany
Predicting Estimated Times of Restoration for Electrical Outages Using Longitudinal Tabular Transformers
May 1, 2025Bogireddy Sai Prasanna Teja, Valliappan Muthukaruppan, Carls BenjaminEvent Time Prediction Transformer
Exelon Corporation, Chicago, IL, USA

Sep 21, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer: Integrating Heterogeneous Context for Process Event Prediction

Fabian Spaeh, Jingxing Fang, Shandian Zhe, Bin Shen

Celonis

Event Time Prediction Predictive Process Monitoring Multimodal Fusion

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Event logs arise in a wide range of real-world processes, capturing not only event activities and timestamps but also multi-modal contextual information. Existing event-sequence models, including many temporal point process approaches, primarily model event activities and timestamps while overlooking heterogeneous context, such as numerical measurements, categorical attributes, textual descriptions, and metadata associated with individual events and entire traces. In this paper, we propose Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer (UMT), a unified framework for incorporating heterogeneous process context into next-event prediction. Built on a Transformer backbone, UMT introduces a universal feature encoder that maps diverse feature types into a shared representation space and handles contextual information at both the event and trace levels. UMT further develops a per-event Perceiver module that dynamically weights contextual features and adaptively integrates them into event-token representations. To accommodate the heavy-tailed and potentially multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival times, UMT represents each interval at multiple temporal scales and jointly predicts the corresponding scale-specific quantities. Experiments on 13 real-world event logs show that UMT improves both next-event activity and time prediction over existing approaches.

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