Event Time Prediction

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Overview

Event time prediction studies when an event is likely to happen, from the next interaction in a network to a clinical milestone or equipment failure, helping people plan and intervene. Common approaches include survival models, temporal point processes such as Hawkes models, and sequence or Transformer models that combine event histories with contextual data; some also predict event type and timing jointly. Researchers evaluate these methods on settings such as electronic health records, business processes, transportation, and sensor data, using measures of timing error, ranking, and probabilistic calibration. A central challenge is that event times can be irregular, censored, heavy-tailed, or inherently uncertain, and complex models do not always outperform simpler baselines or generalize across settings.

Latest papers

CardsList

47 papers6 papers in the last four weeks, up 20% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. TRACER, a time-to-event EHR foundation model for disease detection across health systems

    Oct 29, 2026Mara Pleasure, Ekaterina Redekop, Vedrana Ivezic +4EHR Foundation ModelsLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Biomedical AI Research Lab, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Department of Radiology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Bioinformatics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA +4

  2. Exploring the Potential of Symbolic Regression in Precision Livestock Farming

    Oct 29, 2026Elisabeth Mayrhuber, Maciej Oczak, Michael Iwersen +3Precision Livestock FarmingEvent Time Prediction

    Bioinformatics Research Group, PLFDoc, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria, Hagenberg, Austria · Computer Vision Lab, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria · Precision Livestock Farming Hub, The University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria +2

  3. CADENCE: Distributional Next-Transaction Forecasting for Business Cash-Flow Underwriting

    Oct 27, 2026Alexander Wu, Jingchao HuangNext-Event PredictionFinancial Forecasting

    Slope

  4. AlphaBet: Reinforcement Learning for LLM Event Forecasting Agents

    Oct 15, 2026Liqin Ye, Rongzhi Zhang, Xin Liu +5Probabilistic ForecastingRL for LLM Agents

    Georgia Institute of Technology · Amazon

  5. Graph-Enhanced Disease Trajectory Discovery and Temporal Endpoint Forecasting from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

    Oct 14, 2026Jin-Jia Zheng, Vincent S. TsengDisease Progression ModelingLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Department of Computer Science, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taiwan

  6. Can LLMs Access their World Knowledge for Event Prediction?

    Oct 13, 2026Zijun Wu, Zhitian Zhang, Hossein Hajimirsadeghi +2Event Time PredictionLLM Evaluation

    RBC Borealis · University of Alberta

  7. Exact Phase-Type Point Processes for Certified Measurement and Prediction of Event Streams

    Oct 10, 2026Sayak DuttaHawkes ProcessesTemporal Point Processes

  8. Modeling the Arrival Time of Information-Bearing Events in Natural Language

    Oct 9, 2026Leyi Lao, Yulin Ou, Yang Xu +1Event Time PredictionTemporal Point Processes

    Computational Linguistics and Consciousness Sciences Lab, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China

  9. CHAIN: Calibrated LLM Forecasting via Causal-Temporal Hypergraph Inference

    Sep 29, 2026Wenjin Liu, Chenxi Wang, Yue Lu +2Probabilistic ForecastingLanguage Model Calibration

    Hithink research · Nanyang Technological University

  10. Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer: Integrating Heterogeneous Context for Process Event Prediction

    Sep 21, 2026Fabian Spaeh, Jingxing Fang, Shandian Zhe +1Event Time PredictionPredictive Process Monitoring

    Celonis

  11. Horizon-Aware Early Event Prediction for Tokamak Disruption Alarms

    Sep 21, 2026Takeshi Koshizuka, Takaharu YaguchiEvent Time PredictionSurvival Analysis

    RIKEN AIP, Japan. · Kyushu University IMI, Fukuoka, Japan.

  12. When Do Language Models Add Value? Relative Competence in Hybrid Event Forecasting

    Sep 10, 2026Aditi Tiwari, Aashrith Bandaru, Heng JiEvent Time PredictionSelective Prediction

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA

  13. Adaptation Interfaces for In-Context Tabular Foundation Models in Time-to-Event Prediction

    Sep 4, 2026Minh-Khoi Pham, Luca Cotugno, Dan Cernei +8Event Time PredictionTabular Foundation Models

    ADAPT Centre, School of Computing, Dublin City University DCU Glasnevin Campus, Dublin 9, D09 V209, Ireland · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Italy · University of Pisa, Italy +2

  14. Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

    Sep 1, 2026Elizaveta Sivak, Emily M. Cantrell, Thomas Emery +109Event Time PredictionTabular Prediction

  15. INTERVenE: Temporal-Abstraction-Interval Based Transformers for Short-Horizon Medical Event Prediction

    Aug 30, 2026Shahar Oded, Yuval ShaharEvent Time PredictionInterpretable ML

    The Stein Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel

  16. Behavioral Latency as Weak Event-Time Supervision for EEG Reaction-Time Decoding

    Aug 29, 2026Anuar Aimoldin, Ayana Mussabayeva, Yedige Mussabayev +2EEG DecodingEvent Time Prediction

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), Abu Dhabi, UAE · Hof University, Hof, Germany · McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada +1

  17. A Two-Stage Time-Aware Transformer for Short-Horizon AECOPD Risk Prediction

    Aug 20, 2026Dongyang Wang, Weihao Qu, Ling Zheng +1Clinical PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Monmouth University, West Long Branch, NJ, USA · Changzhou Yaoyuanxing Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., China

  18. Mind the Long Tail: Understanding the Difficulty of Delay Detection in Business Processes

    Aug 14, 2026Keyvan Amiri Elyasi, Lukas Kirchdorfer, Heiner StuckenschmidtPredictive Process MonitoringProcess Mining

    Data and Web Science Group, University of Mannheim, Germany · SAP Signavio, Walldorf, Germany

  19. Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods

    Aug 12, 2026Matthew Kahn, Milan Arjel, Nirmala Adhikari +2Event Time PredictionLandslide Susceptibility Mapping

    Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, United States of America · Department of Electronics and Computer Engineering, Purwanchal Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Dharan, Nepal · Department of Physics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America +2

  20. Certifying What Helps Customer-Return Timing: A Screen-and-Confirm Test for Conditioning Signals, and Why Decay Is Nearly Enough

    Aug 12, 2026Sang Su Lee, Vineeth Loganathan, Shishir Dash +1Event Time PredictionTemporal Point Processes

    Thumbtack, Inc. San Francisco, CA, USA

  21. GTIN: A Unified Scalable Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs

    Jul 26, 2026Mohammad Ostadmohammadi, Sepehr Kazemi, Hamid R. RabieeEvent Time PredictionDynamic Graph Learning

    Department of Computer Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran · Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran

  22. GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs

    Jul 16, 2026Xiangni Tian, Kaixian Yu, Runpeng Dai +2Event Time PredictionTemporal Link Prediction

    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis, Yunnan University, Kunming, China · Insilicom LLC, Peabody, MA, USA · University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA

  23. A Temporal Machine Learning-Based Time-to-Event Model for Predicting ALS Progression and Healthcare Utilization

    Jul 15, 2026Zongliang Yue, Qi Li, Terry Heiman-Patterson +3Event Time PredictionSurvival Analysis

    Department of Health Outcomes Research and Policy, Harrison College of Pharmacy, Auburn University Auburn, AL, USA

  24. ReDiTT: Retrieval Augmented Conditional Diffusion Transformers for Asynchronous Time Series

    Jul 14, 2026Saiyue Lyu, Zhitian Zhang, Ruizhi Deng +1Irregular Time-Series ModelingEvent Time Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia · Work done during an internship at RBC Borealis. · RBC Borealis

  25. Dynamic Prediction of Alternating Recurrent Events via Neural Network

    Jun 29, 2026Abigail Loe, Susan Murry, Zhenke WuEvent Time PredictionSurvival Analysis

    Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Macalester College, Saint Paul, Minnesota, U.S.A. · Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A.

  26. Next-Turn: Duration-Aware Streaming Endpoint Detection via Time-to-Next-Speech-Onset Prediction

    Jun 16, 2026Tristan Tsoi, Jiajun Deng, Yingke Zhu +5Event Time PredictionStreaming ASR

    Central Media Technology Institute, Huawei · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Nanyang Technological University

  27. Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

    Jun 14, 2026Amit Arnold LevyEvent Time PredictionRL for Language Models

    University of Oxford

  28. When Cognitive Graphs Meet LLMs: BDEI Cognitive Pathways for Panic Emotional Arousal Prediction

    Jun 13, 2026Mengzhu Liu, Long Qin, Chuan Ai +7Event Time PredictionComputational Cognitive Modeling

    National Key Laboratory of Digital Intelligent Modeling and Simulation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, Hunan Province, China · College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China +1

  29. Fusion is not one-size-fits-all: Cross-Modal Representation Alignment for Time-to-Event Modeling

    Jun 13, 2026Zhemin Zhang, Weijie Chen, David Le +7Event Time PredictionMultimodal Robustness

    Arizona State University · Mayo Clinic

  30. WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning

    Jun 10, 2026Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding +1Event Time PredictionLLM Agent Evaluation

    Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Cambridge