LLM Uncertainty Estimation

LLM: Large Language Model

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38 papers in the last four weeks, up 111% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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RL-ARC: Calibrating Large Reasoning Models via Reasoning-guided Uncertainty
Oct 8, 2026Gukhyeon Lee, SangKeun LeeLanguage Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Department of Artificial Intelligence, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
U-Space: Uncovering When and Why Uncertainty Arises in Language Models
Oct 6, 2026Tobias Braun, Nils Loose, Alexander Herzog +4LLM Uncertainty Estimation Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Technische Universität Darmstadt · University College London · Universität zu Lübeck +2
Sequential Probabilistic Uncertainty Estimation for Parallel Multi-Agent Reasoning Systems
Oct 6, 2026Tunyu Zhang, Zihao Zhao, Yusong Zhao +5LLM Uncertainty Estimation Multi-Agent LLM Systems
Rutgers University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · Vanderbilt University +1
Single-Pass Uncertainty Heads for Claim-Level Hallucination Detection in Persian Medical Language Models
Oct 2, 2026Mehrdad Ghassabi, Pedram Rostami, Hamidreza Baradaran Kashani +2Hallucination Detection LLM Hallucination Detection
Faculty of Computer Engineering University of Isfahan Isfahan, Iran · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Tehran Tehran, Iran · School of Computer Science University of Windsor Windsor, Canada +1
Verbalized and Internal Probabilities Are Coupled in Large Language Models
Sep 30, 2026Sinead Williamson, Jiaxuan Li, Nick Foti +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Apple
Bayesian Fine-tuning Yields Language Models that are as Bayesian as their Beliefs Allow
Sep 30, 2026Polina Tsvilodub, Andreas Waldis, Linlu Qiu +2Fine-Tuning LLM Fine-Tuning
University of Tübingen · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · New York University
Lingtai: What Concept Geometry Reveals--and Does Not Reveal--About LLM Inference
Sep 30, 2026Jiangang ChenLLM Inference LLM Interpretability
Chengdu Beiluoshimen Technology Co., Ltd.
Referential Uncertainty in Human--AI Collaboration
Sep 30, 2026Christian Poelitz, Finale Doshi-Velez, Siân LindleyLLM Uncertainty Estimation Human-AI Decision Making
Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK · Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Also Small Models Can Reasonably Self-Evaluate Their Confidence
Sep 30, 2026Idil Kapikiran, Thomas Decker, Thomas RunklerConfidence Estimation in Language Models Small Language Models
Technical University of Munich · Siemens AG · LMU Munich +1
Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
Sep 29, 2026Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan +7Uncertainty Quantification Confidence Estimation in Language Models
College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University · Tsinghua University · Behavioral and Spatial AI Lab, Peking University & Tongji University
HARISSA: Inference-Time Self-Checks for Efficient and Safe Local Language Model Deployment
Sep 29, 2026Kenan Alkiek, Moontae Lee, David Jurgens +1On-Device Language Model Inference Selective Prediction
School of Information University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA · SNU-LG AI Research Center Seoul, South Korea
BITEM at the NTCIR-19 R2C2 Task: Predicting Confidence from Agentic RAG Pipeline Signals
Sep 29, 2026Julien Knafou, Luc Mottin, Alexandre Flament +3Retrieval-Augmented Generation Agentic RAG
HES-SO, Geneva, Switzerland · SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Geneva, Switzerland
XU-RS: Explaining Credal Width in Random-Set Language Models
Sep 29, 2026David Achara, Maryam Sultana, Alexander D. Rast +1LLM Interpretability LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Institute for AI, Data Analysis and Systems (AIDAS) Oxford Brookes University
Risk-Aware Semantic Grounding for Trustworthy LLM-Based Robot Planning
Sep 29, 2026Łukasz Sobczak, Nur Keleşoğlu, Sławomir Piotr NowakLarge Language Model-Based Robot Planning Robot Navigation
Institute of Theoretical and Applied Informatics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Gliwice 44-100, Poland
Guard Models Are Overconfident Where Base Models Are Uncertain
Sep 29, 2026Jonghyun Hong, MinJae Jung, Minwoo KimLanguage Model Safety Evaluation Adversarial Attacks on LLMs
DATUMO INC.
TRACE: Single-Pass Decoding-Trace Risk Localization for Generation Calibration
Sep 28, 2026Yuebin Xu, Xuemei Peng, Junlan Chen +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)
Jailbreaks for Black-Box Uncertainty Quantification in Large Reasoning Models
Sep 28, 2026Lucas Biechy, Cédric Eichler, Adrien Boiret +1Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Petscraft, Inria · Université Paris-Saclay · INSA CVL +2
When Confidence Rises Too Early: Detecting Shortcut Reasoning via Premature Answer Commitment
Sep 28, 2026Zhaohan Zhang, Junjie Liu, Chengzhengxu Li +6Faithfulness of Language Model Explanations Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Queen Mary University of London · Tongyi Lab, Alibaba Group · Xi’an Jiaotong University
Semantic Uncertainty Quantification Needs Factual Equivalence
Sep 28, 2026Joseph Hoche, Quentin Guimard, Gianni FranchiConfidence Estimation in Language Models Factual Consistency Evaluation
AMIAD, Pˆole Recherche Palaiseau, France
On the Limits of Metacognitive Monitoring in LLMs
Sep 28, 2026Dongqi Han, Yifan Yang, Dongsheng LiLanguage Model Error Detection Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Microsoft Research Asia
When Words Fall Short: Iterative Synergy Between Verbalized Reasoning and Hidden Features for LLM Confidence Estimation
Sep 28, 2026Yekun Xu, Ante Wang, Jingyi Ren +3Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Reliability
College of AI, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China · Institute for AI Industry Research (AIR), Tsinghua University, Beijing, China · Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Tech., Institute for AI, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Decision Readouts for Text-Mediated Video Anomaly Detection: An Exploratory Evaluation of Jev and Qwen
Sep 28, 2026Xukui Qin, Youting Wang, Xinjie He +4LLM Uncertainty Estimation Video Anomaly Detection
Independent researchers
Toward a Graded Measure of Belief Stability in Large Language Models
Sep 28, 2026Samantha Dies, Branden Fitelson, Tina Eliassi-RadLLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA · Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA
LLMs learn different forms of metacognition when trained to predict their own accuracy
Sep 27, 2026Nicolas Yax, Stefano Palminteri, Pierre-Yves OudeyerConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
LNC2, INSERM, Paris, France · DEC, ENS, PSL, Paris, France · Flowers AI & CogSci Lab +1
Laya as a Typed Probabilistic Assessor: An Independent Reproduction and a Preregistered Study of Calibration and Selective Escalation
Sep 27, 2026Gowthamkumar NandakishoreLLM Evaluation Selective Prediction
Shared Experience, Separate Learning: Companion Confidence Calibration for LLMs
Sep 27, 2026Shiyu Ni, Keping Bi, Jiafeng Guo +4Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
State Key Laboratory of AI Safety · Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Models
Sep 27, 2026Yadong Xi, Rongsheng Zhang, Tangjie Lv +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
NetEase · Amazon · Singapore University of Technology and Design
JEV-as-a-Judge: Accept When Confident, Escalate When Unsure
Sep 22, 2026Yubo Li, Yidi Miao, Ramayya Krishnan +1LLM-as-a-Judge Language Model Generation Evaluation
Carnegie Mellon University
Truth for Believable AI: Expressed Doubt, Provenance, and Belief Revision as an Engineerable Stance
Sep 22, 2026Sebastian CochinescuLLM Uncertainty Estimation Belief Updating in LLMs
University of Bucharest
Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models
Sep 21, 2026Kevin David Hayes, Arka Pal, Haosong Zhang +2Language Model Error Detection Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Department of Computer Science, University of Maryland · Ritual AI · Fudan University +1

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RL-ARC: Calibrating Large Reasoning Models via Reasoning-guided Uncertainty

Gukhyeon Lee, SangKeun Lee

Department of Artificial Intelligence, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation Large Reasoning Models RL for Language Model Reasoning

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Language models (LMs) are commonly trained with Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) to enhance their reasoning capabilities. However, since RLVR does not explicitly account for calibration during training, it can lead to severe calibration degradation, including overconfidence. Recent calibration-aware training methods for LMs, which incorporate objectives for uncertainty estimation into training, improve calibration but still exhibit overconfidence under distribution shift, while sacrificing reasoning performance. To this end, we propose RL-ARC, a calibration-aware training framework that jointly leverages reasoning confidence and answer confidence. Specifically, RL-ARC leverages reasoning confidence as an auxiliary signal for calibrating answer confidence, applying it as reasoning-guided regularization for correct cases and as an overconfidence penalty for incorrect cases. Comprehensive results across ID and OOD settings show that, beyond improving calibration, RL-ARC enables reasoning models to adaptively estimate confidence based on the given question without substantially sacrificing reasoning performance, thereby highlighting the importance of reasoning confidence for training reliable reasoning models.

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