Multivariate Time Series Classification

Due to the prevalence of temporal data and its inherent dependencies in many real-world problems, time series classification is of paramount importance in various domains. However, existing models often struggle with series of variable length or high dimensionality. This paper introduces the MIHT (Multi-instance Hoeffding Tree) algorithm, an efficient model that uses multi-instance learning to classify multivariate and variable-length time series while providing interpretable results. The algorithm uses a novel representation of time series as "bags of subseries," together with an optimization process based on incremental decision trees that distinguish relevant parts of the series from noise. This methodology extracts the underlying concept of series with multiple variables and variable lengths. The generated decision tree is a compact, white-box representation of the series' concept, providing interpretability insights into the most relevant variables and segments of the series. Experimental results demonstrate MIHT's superiority, as it outperforms 11 state-of-the-art time series classification models on 28 public datasets, including high-dimensional ones. MIHT offers enhanced accuracy and interpretability, making it a promising solution for handling complex, dynamic time series data.

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.

Time series machine learning (TSML) is a growing research field that spans a wide range of tasks. The popularity of established tasks such as classification, clustering, and extrinsic regression has, in part, been driven by the availability of benchmark datasets. An archive of 30 multivariate time series classification datasets, introduced in 2018 and commonly known as the UEA archive, has since become an essential resource cited in hundreds of publications. We present a substantial expansion of this archive that more than quadruples its size, from 30 to 133 classification problems. We also release preprocessed versions of datasets containing missing values or unequal length series, bringing the total number of datasets to 147. Reflecting the growth of the archive and the broader community, we rebrand it as the Multiverse archive to capture its diversity of domains. The Multiverse archive includes datasets from multiple sources, consolidating other collections and standalone datasets into a single, unified repository. Recognising that running experiments across the full archive is computationally demanding, we recommend a subset of the full archive called Multiverse-core (MV-core) for initial exploration. To support researchers in using the new archive, we provide detailed guidance and a baseline evaluation of established and recent classification algorithms, establishing performance benchmarks for future research. We have created a dedicated repository for the Multiverse archive that provides a common aeon and scikit-learn compatible framework for reproducibility, an extensive record of published results, and an interactive interface to explore the results.

Applying machine learning to sensitive time-series data is often bottlenecked by the iteration loop: Performance depends strongly on preprocessing and architecture, yet training often has to run on-premise under strict data-local constraints. This is a common problem in healthcare and other privacy-constrained domains (e.g., a hospital developing deep learning models on patient EEG). This bottleneck is particularly challenging in multimodal fusion, where sensor modalities must be individually preprocessed and then combined. LLM-guided neural architecture search (NAS) can automate this exploration, but most existing workflows assume cloud execution or access to data-derived artifacts that cannot be exposed. We present a novel data-local, LLM-guided search framework that handles candidate pipelines remotely while executing all training and evaluation locally under a fixed protocol. The controller observes only trial-level summaries, such as pipeline descriptors, metrics, learning-curve statistics, and failure logs, without ever accessing raw samples or intermediate feature representations. Our framework targets multiclass, multimodal learning via one-vs-rest binary experts per class and modality, a lightweight fusion MLP, and joint search over expert architectures and modality-specific preprocessing. We evaluate our method on two regimes: UEA30 (public multivariate time-series classification dataset) and SleepEDFx sleep staging (heterogeneous clinical modalities such as EEG, EOG, and EMG). The results show that the modular baseline model is strong, and the LLM-guided NAS further improves it. Notably, our method finds models that perform within published ranges across most benchmark datasets. Across both settings, our method reduces manual intervention by enabling unattended architecture search while keeping sensitive data on-premise.

Multivariate time series (MTS) modeling often implicitly imposes an artificial ordering over variables, violating the inherent exchangeability found in many real-world systems where no canonical variable axis exists. We formalize this limitation as a violation of the permutation symmetry principle and require state-space dynamics to be permutation-equivariant along the variable axis. In this work, we theoretically characterize the complete canonical form of linear variable coupling under this symmetry constraint. We prove that any permutation-equivariant linear 2D state-space system naturally decomposes into local self-dynamics and a global pooled interaction, rendering ordered recurrence not only unnecessary but structurally suboptimal. Motivated by this theoretical foundation, we introduce the Variable-Invariant Two-Dimensional State Space Model (VI 2D SSM), which realizes the canonical equivariant form via permutation-invariant aggregation. This formulation eliminates sequential dependency chains along the variable axis, reducing the dependency depth from $\mathcal{O}(C)$ to $\mathcal{O}(1)$ and simplifying stability analysis to two scalar modes. Furthermore, we propose VI 2D Mamba, a unified architecture integrating multi-scale temporal dynamics and spectral representations. Extensive experiments on forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection benchmarks demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance with superior structural scalability, validating the theoretical necessity of symmetry-preserving 2D modeling.

Multi-mode tensor time series (TTS) can be found in many domains, such as search engines and environmental monitoring systems. Learning representations of a TTS benefits various applications, but it is also challenging since the complexities inherent in the tensor hinder the realization of rich representations. In this paper, we propose a novel representation learning method designed specifically for TTS, namely MoST. Specifically, MoST uses a tensor slicing approach to reduce the complexity of the TTS structure and learns representations that can be disentangled into individual non-temporal modes. Each representation captures mode-specific features, which are the relationship between variables within the same mode, and mode-invariant features, which are in common in representations of different modes. We employ a contrastive learning framework to learn parameters; the loss function comprises two parts intended to learn representation in a mode-specific way and mode-invariant way, effectively exploiting disentangled representations as augmentations. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that MoST consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of classification and forecasting accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/KoheiObata/MoST.

Irregular multivariate time series with missing values present significant challenges for predictive modeling in domains such as healthcare. While deep learning approaches often focus on temporal interpolation or complex architectures to handle irregularities, we propose a simpler yet effective alternative: extracting time-agnostic summary statistics to eliminate the temporal axis. Our method computes four key features per variable-mean and standard deviation of observed values, as well as the mean and variability of changes between consecutive observations to create a fixed-dimensional representation. These features are then utilized with standard classifiers, such as logistic regression and XGBoost. Evaluated on four biomedical datasets (PhysioNet Challenge 2012, 2019, PAMAP2, and MIMIC-III), our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing recent transformer and graph-based models by 0.5-1.7% in AUROC/AUPRC and 1.1-1.7% in accuracy/F1-score, while reducing computational complexity. Ablation studies demonstrate that feature extraction-not classifier choice-drives performance gains, and our summary statistics outperform raw/imputed input in most benchmarks. In particular, we identify scenarios where missing patterns themselves encode predictive signals, as in sepsis prediction (PhysioNet, 2019), where missing indicators alone can achieve 94.2% AUROC with XGBoost, only 1.6% lower than using original raw data as input. Our results challenge the necessity of complex temporal modeling when task objectives permit time-agnostic representations, providing an efficient and interpretable solution for irregular time series classification.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor neuron degeneration, with changes to neuronal excitability being an early phenotype for ALS identified in patients and animal models. Recent advancements in induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) technology have enabled the generation of human iPSC-derived neuronal cultures, which, when combined with multi-electrode array (MEA) electrophysiology, provide rich spatial and temporal electrophysiological data. Traditionally, MEA data is analyzed using handcrafted features based on potentially imperfect domain knowledge, which while useful may not fully capture all the relevant characteristics inherent in the MEA data. Machine learning, in particular deep learning has the potential to automatically learn relevant characteristics (features) from raw data, without solely relying on handcrafted feature extraction. However, handcrafted features remain critical for encoding domain knowledge and improving model interpretability, especially in scenarios with limited or noisy data, as is often the case in most experimental studies. This study introduces FRAME-C, a knowledge-augmented machine learning pipeline that combines domain knowledge, raw spike waveform data, and deep learning techniques to classify MEA signals and identify ALS-specific phenotypes. FRAME-C leverages deep learning to extract important features from spike waveforms, while also incorporating handcrafted features such as spike amplitude, inter-spike interval, and spike duration, thus preserving key spatial and temporal information. We validated FRAME-C on both simulated and real-world MEA data from human iPSC-derived neuronal cultures, demonstrating its superior performance compared to existing methods for MEA classification.