Robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

Robust partially observable Markov decision processes model agents that act under partial observability while adversarial environment resolves uncertainty in the transition probabilities. Reward objectives such as discounted-sum, long-run average and cumulative reward under finite and infinite horizons allow quantifying the utility of an agent. We consider the problem of solving RPOMDPs under all four reward objectives, where the goal is to decide whether the value of a risk measure with respect to a reward objective exceeds a given threshold. We consider different risk measures, such as (1)~expected value, (2)~mean-variance (MV), (3)~conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), and (4)~entropic risk (ERisk). Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we formalize the class of law-invariant risk measures, that subsume all four risk measures above. Second, we propose a unified framework for solving RPOMDPs with discounted-sum, long-run average and cumulative reward objectives under any law-invariant risk measure, by reducing the problem to solving partially observable stochastic games (POSGs). Our unified framework applies to (s,a)-rectangular RPOMDPs with polytopic uncertainty sets, which we show to be {\em equivalent} to POSGs, for each of the four reward objectives and any law-invariant risk measure. We prove equivalence by designing logspace reductions between the RPOMDP and POSG models, that map strategies to strategies and preserve the distribution of the reward objective, up to a constant rescaling factor. Third, as a corollary, we derive new computational complexity results for R(PO)MDPs and POSGs. In particular, we show that solving (s,a)-rectangular RMDPs is as hard as solving simple stochastic games.

Multi-environment POMDPs (ME-POMDPs) generalize POMDPs by encoding a finite set of possible environments, capturing model uncertainty. The finite-horizon robust reward maximization problem for a ME-POMDP asks for a policy that maximizes reward in the worst environment, and recent work has shown this problem to be $\mathsf{PSPACE}$-complete. We expand the complexity landscape of ME-POMDPs by identifying which subclasses retain this $\mathsf{PSPACE}$-completeness. In particular, we take subclasses of POMDPs that are tractable in the single-environment case, and investigate the computational complexity of these classes when extended to the multi-environment setting. We first prove the $\mathsf{NP}$-completeness of multi-environment blind MDPs and deterministic POMDPs using a certain closure-under-mixture condition. We then prove $\mathsf{PSPACE}$-completeness for a range of subclasses that do not satisfy that closure condition, yielding new complexity results for multi-observation POMDPs. Finally, we show existential theory of the reals ($\exists \mathbb{R}$)-completeness for numerous ME-POMDP problems under time-dependent Markovian policies or finite-state controllers that are $\mathsf{NP}$-complete for standard POMDPs. These results reveal a subtle relationship between POMDP and ME-POMDP complexity that depends heavily on the subclasses involved.

Robust POMDPs (RPOMDPs) generalize classical POMDPs to the setting where exact transition probabilities are not known -- rather, they are only known to belong to some uncertainty set of values. In this work, we study the problem of solving RPOMDPs with general omega-regular objectives, which subsume a broad class of objectives such as reachability, safety, and linear temporal logic (LTL) objectives. We show that, for (s,a)-rectangular RPOMDPs with polytopic uncertainty sets, the problem of solving RPOMDPs under omega-regular objectives can be reduced to solving partially observable stochastic games (POSGs) under omega-regular objectives. Moreover, we show for the first time that reductions can be constructed in both directions, establishing the semantic equivalence between (s,a)-rectangular RPOMDPs with polytopic uncertainty sets and POSGs. This allows us to derive a range of new computational complexity results, including both upper and lower complexity bounds, on solving RPOMDPs with different omega-regular objectives. As a corollary, we also derive new computational complexity results for RMDPs.

Embodied agent teams powered by heterogeneous large language models (LLMs) are being widely deployed in physical artificial intelligence such as smart factories, warehouses, and service robotics. To enable collaboration among such an agent team, efficient coordination mechanisms that operate reliably under limited network resources are required. However, existing heterogeneous LLM-agent coordination frameworks that rely on multi-round natural-language-based conversations introduce three coupled challenges. First, inter-agent dialogue incurs communication overhead that grows rapidly with team size. Second, the quality of coordination is constrained by the heterogeneous capabilities of the agent team's LLMs. Third, agents may suffer from action delays due to iterative negotiation. To address these challenges, we propose LDT-Coord, a networked coordination framework built upon a lightweight digital twin (DT). Specifically, each agent independently selects its intended action and reports both the action decision and a structured temporal constraint over shared resources to the DT server, thereby decoupling coordination performance from natural-language reasoning ability. Then, DT executes a training-free, rule-based orchestrator algorithm to resolve cross-agent conflicts and returns coordination instructions to prevent such conflicts. To further reduce communication overhead, we formulate agent reporting control as a constrained partially observable Markov decision process (C-POMDP) and solve it with the PPO-Lagrangian algorithm. Simulation results show that LDT-Coord achieves a task success rate comparable to conventional coordination methods while reducing communication overhead by more than 70x and maintaining robustness under LLM heterogeneity.

Many games rely on storytelling combined with systems that track levelling, NPC behaviour, and consequence simulation; bridging tightly-authored narrative with deeply-simulated worlds -- most acute in sandbox and open-world settings -- has been prohibitively expensive. LLM-driven worlds open a new path: a single harness can coordinate numerical state, narrative voice, storytelling pacing, and rule logic together. Realising this requires the LLM system to sustain a persistent world (who is where, what has just happened, what is currently true), which today's deployed systems do not: the narrative voice asserts state in free prose without any validated representation, so a fully autonomous game engine remains infeasible. We treat this as an architectural choice, not a limitation of language models, and report work in progress on a framework -- orchestrated reality -- that makes the world a canonical object owned by a singleton orchestration agent analogous to the tabletop-RPG Game Master (GM). We formalise an LLM-driven game world for a human player as a Parameterized-Action POMDP: state is a tree of canonical JSON entities, actions decompose as $a=(k, x_k)$ (a discrete intent kind plus structured JSON parameters), the agent observes only a narrative projection $o=O(s)$ of state, and the transition kernel $F$ is an LLM-driven Plan-Diff-Validate-Apply (PDVA) pipeline that commits schema-validated, content-hashed JSON deltas. We give the formal model, a JSON-state example, a worked single-turn example, and a catalogue of 15 illustrative incidents drawn from a real deployment showing the framework in action. Empirical validation through a planned human player study -- together with multi-NPC concurrent agency and deployment as an RL environment -- is situated as future work.

Real-world robot task planning must operate under both stochastic action execution and partial observability, yet constructing Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) models for real robotics domains remains difficult and labor-intensive. We introduce PO-PDDL, a symbolic formulation of POMDPs that preserves the relational structure and LLM-friendly syntax of the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL), while explicitly modeling partial observability, stochasticity, and beliefs. Building on this formulation, we propose a demonstration-driven pipeline for learning PO-PDDL models. The proposed method reconstructs latent symbolic state trajectories from real-robot execution videos, identifies partial observability via inconsistencies between inferred states and visual observations, and learns stochastic transition and observation models accordingly. The resulting PO-PDDL domains are reusable across tasks and enable online belief-space planning under both perception and execution uncertainty. Experiments on real-world long-horizon manipulation tasks show that our method consistently outperforms existing PDDL and POMDP model-learning approaches, achieving robust task planning under uncertainty with significantly lower planning cost.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are systems in which one agent interacts with a stochastic environment, and receives only partial information about the current state. In a multi-environment POMDP (MEPOMDP), the initial state is unknown, and assumed to be adversarially chosen. In this work we focus on computing the optimal value and policy in MEPOMDPs with finite-horizon objectives. That problem is known to be PSPACE-complete in POMDPs. Our main results are as follows: (1) we establish that it is also PSPACE-complete in the more general setting of MEPOMDPs; (2) we present a practical algorithm and evaluate it on classical benchmarks, significantly outperforming the only previously known algorithm.

Policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are often designed using a nominal system model. In practice, this model can deviate from the true system during deployment due to factors such as calibration drift or sensor degradation, leading to unexpected performance degradation. This work studies policy robustness against deviations in the POMDP observation model. We introduce the Policy Observation Robustness Problem: to determine the maximum tolerable deviation in a POMDP's observation model that guarantees the policy's value remains above a specified threshold. We analyze two variants: the sticky variant, where deviations are dependent on state and actions, and the non-sticky variant, where they can be history-dependent. We show that the Policy Observation Robustness Problem can be formulated as a bi-level optimization problem in which the inner optimization is monotonic in the size of the observation deviation. This enables efficient solutions using root-finding algorithms in the outer optimization. For the non-sticky variant, we show that when policies are represented with finite-state controllers (FSCs) it is sufficient to consider observations which depend on nodes in the FSC rather than full histories. We present Robust Interval Search, an algorithm with soundness and convergence guarantees, for both the sticky and non-sticky variants. We show this algorithm has polynomial time complexity in the non-sticky variant and at most exponential time complexity in the sticky variant. We provide experimental results validating and demonstrating the scalability of implementations of Robust Interval Search to POMDP problems with tens of thousands of states. We also provide case studies from robotics and operations research which demonstrate the practical utility of the problem and algorithms.

Generating executable simulations from natural language specifications remains a challenging problem due to the limited reasoning capacity of large language models (LLMs) when confronted with large, interconnected codebases. This paper presents FactorSmith, a framework that synthesizes playable game simulations in code from textual descriptions by combining two complementary ideas: factored POMDP decomposition for principled context reduction and a hierarchical planner-designer-critic agentic workflow for iterative quality refinement at every generation step. Drawing on the factored partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) representation introduced by FactorSim [Sun et al., 2024], the proposed method decomposes a simulation specification into modular steps where each step operates only on a minimal subset of relevant state variables, limiting the context window that any single LLM call must process. Inspired by the agentic trio architecture of SceneSmith [Pfaff et al., 2025], FactorSmith embeds within every factored step a three-agent interaction: a planner that orchestrates workflow, a designer that proposes code artifacts, and a critic that evaluates quality through structured scoring, enabling iterative refinement with checkpoint rollback. This paper formalizes the combined approach, presents the mathematical framework underpinning context selection and agentic refinement, and describes the open-source implementation. Experiments on the PyGame Learning Environment benchmark demonstrate that FactorSmith generates simulations with improved prompt alignment, fewer runtime errors, and higher code quality compared to non-agentic factored baselines.