Solar Physics

The long observational record of He I 10830 Å offers a means to investigate solar morphology before modern extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) imaging. We adapt the Surya solar foundation model to predict Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) 94, 193, and 304 Å images and a coronal hole (CH) probability map from full-disk helium observations. A convolutional input adapter, low-rank backbone updates, and dedicated output decoders learn from temporally paired, geometrically registered observations, with Spatial Possibilistic Clustering Algorithm (SPOCA) catalog polygons providing CH supervision. On observations held out from downstream fine-tuning, the selected dedicated models achieve disk-restricted correlation coefficients (CCs) of 0.8196, 0.8885, and 0.8398 for the three AIA channels, respectively; the CH model achieves an intersection over union (IoU) of 0.4360. The predictions recover broad solar structure, although local agreement varies substantially by channel. An optional residual refiner addresses spatial detail, and its application on pre-SDO dates improves the correlation of synthetic AIA 304 with Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) 304 references from 0.6511 to 0.7085. Together, these results support the feasibility of helium-conditioned EUV morphological proxies and motivate their use in historical reconstruction, within the scope of the downstream test and cross-instrument evaluation.

Photospheric vector magnetic fields are foundational to modeling, understanding, and forecasting solar activity. These data are usually produced by inverting and disambiguating the full Stokes vector at multiple passbands, which is demanding. Here, we investigate how well we can estimate photospheric vector magnetograms from UV/EUV filtergrams. This problem is challenging and intrinsically ambiguous without polarization information, as the mapping from UV/EUV intensity to the magnetic field is indirect and ill-posed. We introduce MAGiDiff, a machine-learning-based method that uses denoising diffusion models to estimate vector magnetograms from UV/EUV filtergrams. As input, MAGiDiff takes a stack of filtergrams from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA); as output, it is trained to estimate the disambiguated vector magnetogram as seen by Hinode / Solar Optical Telescope-Spectro-Polarimeter (SOT-SP). We show that MAGiDiff can accurately mimic the Hinode ground-truth. Additionally, we probe MAGiDiff's understanding of the physical structure and magnetic connectivity. On full-disk, we show that it produces plausible structures for active regions. MAGiDiff generalizes across solar cycles despite hemispheric polarity reversal, and can be fine-tuned to other EUV instruments including STEREO/EUVI and GOES-R/SUVI. While clearly not a substitute for a dedicated instrument, MAGiDiff opens the door to new capabilities.

Space weather early warning depends on detecting solar wind transients in in-situ measurements at the first Sun-Earth Lagrange point (L1), before they reach Earth. Fixed thresholds can miss combined magnetic and plasma structure, and many learning methods provide a single anomaly score. We present the Physics-Informed Solar-wind Convolutional autoEncoder for Space-weather (PISCES), a convolutional autoencoder trained without catalog labels on OMNI solar wind measurements under physics constraints. Its loss includes magnetic field consistency, an empirical relation between temperature and velocity, the Parker spiral angle, and penalties on changes between consecutive one-minute samples in derived quantities calculated from the reconstruction. At inference, PISCES separates the anomaly score into magnetic and plasma reconstruction errors, physics relations, and residual corrections, and reports the magnitude of each contribution. Attenuation of the skip connections, selected on validation data, improves average precision for the trained models, while the untrained scores remain nearly the same. The trained models also give a more consistent ordering of these physical contributions. After smoothing with a trailing median, the alarms can precede independently observed sudden commencements, including positive sudden impulses.

Single-image super-resolution of Sun's photospheric magnetograms enables consistent analysis across heterogeneous space-based instruments and supports long-term studies of solar magnetic field evolution. We address the super-resolution task from SOHO/MDI (low-resolution) to SDO/HMI (high-resolution) line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms using a modified RRDBNet architecture initialized by ESRGAN pretrained weights. Through systematic per-image diagnostic analysis, we identify image complexity as the dominant predictor of reconstruction errors. To exploit this finding, we introduce an adaptive stratified specialist ensemble (SSE) of three specialist networks with uncertainty estimation, where each specialist network is trained by images from three different complexity strata using a weighted random sampling strategy. During inference, a lightweight router based on input image statistics assigns each test image to the appropriate specialist network. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of the proposed ensemble and its superiority over closely related methods.

Accurately predicting fast solar wind conditions is challenging, as uncertainties are large and unquantified by traditional single-value prediction models. In particular, the risks of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), which can cause damage to technological infrastructure, cannot be reliably assessed without probabilistic forecasts. We present PROSWIN, a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts the hourly solar wind speed (SWS) at Earth with a four-day lead time. The approach combines solar images and magnetograms using a deep neural network coupled to a distributional regression algorithm. Because standard error metrics underweight the relevance of HSS peaks, we further introduce the prediction score, a model-selection metric that jointly rewards timeline and HSS peak accuracy. On 14 years of data, our forecast achieves very well-calibrated uncertainties (<1% average deviation). Using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a metric that assesses distributional accuracy, we obtain a timeline CRPS of 41.0 km/s, an HSS peak CRPS of 45.3 km/s, and a prediction score of 42.3 km/s. We find that the 171 Å channel is an important complement to the typically used 193 Å and 211 Å channels and that the prediction score for model selection improves the applicability of the model. Compared to selected models from the literature, ours is the only one that is accurate for both timeline and HSS peak values, rather than trading one off against the other. These results support the advantages of probabilistic over single-value solar wind models. The introduced methods are also transferable to other forecasting problems.

Strong chromospheric absorption lines such as H$α$ 6562.8 A and Ca II 8542.1 A provide vital diagnostics of plasma dynamics and thermal structure in the solar chromosphere. Multilayer spectral inversion (MLSI) offers a physically interpretable framework for modeling these lines using a finite number of radiative-transfer layers, but conventional MLSI relies on pixel-by-pixel nonlinear least-squares fitting, making it computationally expensive for large imaging spectroscopic data sets. Here, we introduce a physics-informed neural-network (PINN) framework to accelerate MLSI while preserving its analytic radiative-transfer formulation. The network predicts MLSI parameters directly from observed line profiles and passes them through a differentiable MLSI forward model to synthesize spectra. Training follows a two-stage approach: an initial stage optimized solely via spectral reconstruction loss, followed by fine-tuning that combines spectral consistency with parameter-space supervision from conventional MLSI results on a single reference image. This strategy eliminates the need for large precomputed training sets while maintaining physical interpretability. Applied to Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) observations from the Goode Solar Telescope (GST) targeting both quiet-Sun and active-region regions, MLSI-PINN parameter maps reproduce the primary spatial structures of direct inversions, achieving an arithmetic mean pixel-wise Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.933 across all evaluated parameters. The reconstructed spectra closely match both observed profiles and conventional MLSI fits. Post-training, MLSI-PINN processes a raster in approximately 5-15 seconds compared to 3-5 minutes for conventional MLSI, delivering an inference speedup of about 12-60 times without substantial loss in reconstruction quality, enabling efficient MLSI analysis on large chromospheric data sets.

Whether the slow solar wind originates from one coronal source or two distinct channels remains a central open question in heliophysics. Resolving this requires unsupervised separation of two populations that arrive at nearly the same bulk speed and differ mainly in heavy-ion composition. We present Solar-CDC, a self-supervised contrastive deep clustering (CDC) framework that maps plasma observables to a latent space via a Transformer encoder, optimizes a triplet margin loss, and updates pseudo-labels via $k$-means. Theoretically, we prove that neighborhood-preserving embeddings such as t-SNE and UMAP are fundamentally constrained. Preserving the neighbor graph leaves the cross-cluster cut fraction unchanged, and preserving all but a fraction $\varepsilon$ of its links moves that fraction by at most $\varepsilon$. Neither bound depends on the target dimension. A margin objective rewrites the graph and drives the cut fraction to zero. Empirically, on 30,602 Solar Orbiter observations, thirty combinations of dimensionality reduction and clustering peak at a silhouette of $0.454$, whereas Solar-CDC reaches $0.869$. Escaping the geometric bound alone does not guarantee physical validity: TriMap also optimizes triplets and reaches $0.824$, yet its clusters score below chance against the published composition taxonomy. Solar-CDC instead recovers clusters with mean charge-state ratios of $0.080$, $0.160$, and $0.400$, placing the intermediate population inside the window associated with coronal-hole boundaries. Even when the defining charge-state ratio is withheld from the inputs entirely, the model still recovers the taxonomy defined on it. Solar-CDC thus connects self-supervised representation learning to coronal source diagnostics. Importantly, a learning loss recovers physical populations only when driven by dynamically updated physically-aware clusters rather than distances.

Automated solar filament detection using deep learning faces several challenges. Semantic segmentation of solar filaments is a complicated multiscale feature extraction task with long-tail distribution. Furthermore, a large-scale, highly complete, and finely detailed dataset has become mandatory for providing abundant information. To address these challenges, we present a series of machine learning approaches to develop a solar filament detection workflow that performs superbly. First, we manually annotated a small-scale solar filament dataset based on H$α$ spectra called MHAS. Next, we developed the Multiscale ORiented DENdritic (MORDEN) model, a semantic segmentation model focusing on multiscale feature extraction. We also introduced the Dense Conditional Random Field (DenseCRF) and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) methods for post-processing. Using the proposed workflow, we generated a large-scale, high-quality dataset called AHAS. Experimental results demonstrate that MORDEN outperforms several existing solar filament semantic segmentation models with open access. DenseCRF has been demonstrated to effectively capture fine edge details. We also evaluated the effects of data scaling and the reliability of DBSCAN and found that both approaches yield satisfactory performance. Multiple visualization results substantiate our quantitative findings. Our work provides a foundation for maximizing the potential of deep learning models for solar filament detection.

We present FlareEUV, a multimodal deep learning framework for predicting daily extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance at 6.5 nm over three consecutive days during significant solar flares, using multi-instrument observations from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We consider 33 significant flares in the period between 2011 and 2014 in Solar Cycle 24. The SDO observations include 13 co-aligned full-disk images, comprising eight AIA EUV/UV and five HMI magnetic/continuum products. FlareEUV learns the relationship between magnetic structure and coronal emission from the raw imaging data using a lightweight attention-based architecture. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of FlareEUV in short-term EUV irradiance forecasting during the significant flares and its superiority over baseline methods.

Solar flares, particularly those of the M- and X-class, have a significant impact on human life because of their potential to disrupt critical infrastructure and communication systems on Earth. Accurate prediction of solar flares is crucial for mitigating these risks, but the black-box nature of conventional deep learning models used in flare prediction limits their trustworthiness and interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new approach to solar flare prediction using photospheric magnetic field parameters or features with deep learning. To improve model interpretability, we integrate explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs), into our prediction framework. XAI methods provide transparency by analyzing the importance and interactions of features used by our model. Specifically, SHAP values offer a global and local understanding of the features, while PDPs provide insights into feature-level trends. These techniques demonstrate the potential of XAI in deploying AI-driven solutions in high-impact applications such as solar flare prediction, paving the way for more informed decision-making in solar physics and space weather studies.

Routine full-disk EUV imaging has been available only since the modern era, such as SOHO and SDO. To extend EUV coronal context into earlier periods, we leverage the multi-decade availability of full-disk \HeI{} observations, whose absorption is modulated by coronal irradiance and magnetic topology and is widely used as a proxy for open-field regions. We present a diffusion-based conditional image translation framework, Coronal Hole-aware Diffusion Model Translator (CH-aware DMT), to reconstruct synthetic SDO/AIA 193 Å EUV images from \HeI{} inputs. The model is trained on temporally co-aligned SOLIS \HeI{} and AIA 193 Å pairs spanning 2011--2015 using a month-based split, where January--October are used for training, November is used for validation, and December for testing. On the held-out test set, the reconstructions preserve dominant full-disk EUV morphology (CC=0.92) and recover CH-related low-intensity structure (CC=0.84). We further assess historical applicability by (1) comparing reconstructed AIA 193 Å morphology with SOHO/EIT 195 Å over 2005--2015; (2) comparing reconstructed AIA 193 Å images generated from KPVT \HeI{} inputs against Yohkoh/SXT soft X-ray observations; and (3) evaluating long-term reconstructed disk-integrated emission statistics against observational EUV series and independent solar activity proxies (sunspot number and F10.7 radio flux over 1974--2015). These results indicate that CH-aware DMT conditioned on \HeI{} can provide a physically plausible synthetic AIA 193 Å coronal proxy for historical studies, supporting multi-decade analyses of large-scale coronal evolution before the direct EUV imaging was available.

The F10.7 and F30 solar indices are the solar radio fluxes measured at wavelengths of 10.7 cm and 30 cm, respectively, which are key indicators of solar activity. F10.7 is valuable for explaining the impact of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the upper atmosphere of Earth, while F30 is more sensitive and could improve the reaction of thermospheric density to solar stimulation. In this study, we present a new deep learning model, named the Solar Index Network, or SINet for short, to predict daily values of the F10.7 and F30 solar indices. The SINet model is designed to make medium-term predictions of the index values (1-60 days in advance). The observed data used for SINet training were taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as well as Toyokawa and Nobeyama facilities. Our experimental results show that SINet performs better than five closely related statistical and deep learning methods for the prediction of F10.7. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning has been used to predict the F30 solar index.

Solar eruptions, including flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have a significant impact on Earth. Some flares are associated with CMEs, and some flares are not. The association between flares and CMEs is not always obvious. In this study, we propose a new deep learning method, specifically a hybrid neural network (HNN) that combines a vision transformer with long short-term memory, to predict associations between flares and CMEs. HNN finds spatio-temporal patterns in the time series of line-of-sight magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs) collected by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and uses the patterns to predict whether a flare projected to occur within the next 24 hours will be eruptive (i.e., CME-associated) or confined (i.e., not CME-associated). Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of the HNN method. Furthermore, the results show that magnetic flux cancellation in polarity inversion line regions may well play a role in triggering flare-associated CMEs, a finding consistent with literature.

The Sun is observed in unprecedented detail, enabling studies of its activity on very small spatiotemporal scales. However, the large volume of data collected by our telescopes cannot be fully analyzed with conventional methods. Popular machine learning methods identify general trends from observations, but tend to overlook unusual events due to their low frequency of occurrence. We study the applicability of unsupervised probabilistic methods to efficiently identify rare events in multidimensional solar observations and optimize our computational resources to the study of these extreme phenomena. We introduce Inspectorch, an open-source framework that utilizes flow-based models: flexible density estimators capable of learning the multidimensional distribution of solar observations. Once optimized, it assigns a probability to each sample, allowing us to identify unusual events. We apply this approach by applying it to observations from the Hinode Spectro-Polarimeter, the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, the Microlensed Hyperspectral Imager at Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope, the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on board Solar Orbiter. We find that the algorithm assigns consistently lower probabilities to spectra that exhibit unusual features. For example, it identifies profiles with very strong Doppler shifts, uncommon broadening, and temporal dynamics associated with small-scale reconnection events, among others. As a result, Inspectorch demonstrates that density estimation using flow-based models offers a powerful approach to identifying rare events in large solar datasets. The resulting probabilistic anomaly scores allow computational resources to be focused on the most informative and physically relevant events. We make our Python package publicly available at https://github.com/cdiazbas/inspectorch.

In this work, we develop, for the first time, a supervised classification framework with class-dependent rewards (CDR) to predict $\geq$MM flares within 24 hr. We construct multiple datasets, covering knowledge-informed features and line-of sight (LOS) magnetograms. We also apply three deep learning models (CNN, CNN-BiLSTM, and Transformer) and three CDR counterparts (CDR-CNN, CDR-CNN-BiLSTM, and CDR-Transformer). First, we analyze the importance of LOS magnetic field parameters with the Transformer, then compare its performance using LOS-only, vector-only, and combined magnetic field parameters. Second, we compare flare prediction performance based on CDR models versus deep learning counterparts. Third, we perform sensitivity analysis on reward engineering for CDR models. Fourth, we use the SHAP method for model interpretability. Finally, we conduct performance comparison between our models and NASA/CCMC. The main findings are: (1)Among LOS feature combinations, R_VALUE and AREA_ACR consistently yield the best results. (2)Transformer achieves better performance with combined LOS and vector magnetic field data than with either alone. (3)Models using knowledge-informed features outperform those using magnetograms. (4)While CNN and CNN-BiLSTM outperform their CDR counterparts on magnetograms, CDR-Transformer is slightly superior to its deep learning counterpart when using knowledge-informed features. Among all models, CDR-Transformer achieves the best performance. (5)The predictive performance of the CDR models is not overly sensitive to the reward choices.(6)Through SHAP analysis, the CDR model tends to regard TOTUSJH as more important, while the Transformer tends to prioritize R_VALUE more.(7)Under identical prediction time and active region (AR) number, the CDR-Transformer shows superior predictive capabilities compared to NASA/CCMC.