Statistical Model Checking

In this paper, we investigate the synthesis of Micro Neural Policies (MNP) to enable safe and robust real-time robotic control on computationally constrained embedded devices. We demonstrate that integrating Evolution Strategy (ES) and Statistical Model Checking (SMC)-based verification for policy search can drastically reduce neural network size without compromising safety and robustness. We conduct a large-scale training and evaluation of MNP on Cartpole and Quadrotor control tasks, varying control frequencies and network architectures. After validating these policies in simulation, we evaluate their deployability through zero-shot transfer to physical systems. Our experiments show that MNP can successfully achieve safe sim-to-real transfer without sacrificing control performance. We then show that the policies' memory footprint, ranging from 0.5 to 7.5 kB, allows deployment on microcontrollers, where they achieve real-time inference latency with under 25 ns of jitter while leaving the chip idle for over 97% of the time for additional workloads. This makes them a highly practical solution for severely resource-constrained robotic systems.

In safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving, systems must be evaluated across a large number of environment conditions, often represented as composite scenarios built from primitive scenarios. Existing statistical model checking (SMC) approaches analyze each composite scenario independently, requiring many expensive simulations and resulting in substantial redundant computation when scenarios share common structure. This work introduces a scenario-based compositional SMC framework for safety and co-safety specifications, enabling efficient analysis of composite scenarios. Our approach decomposes scenarios into primitives and specifications into sub-specifications, verifies each primitive independently, and composes the resulting statistical estimates using importance sampling and kernel density estimation. Our empirical evaluation shows that the proposed framework can accurately answer verification queries for previously unseen composite scenarios while reducing simulation cost through parallelization and trace reuse.

Training controllers that are safe and robust in simulation, and systematically assessing their readiness for real-world deployment, remain key challenges in sim-to-real transfer. To address this, we propose LyEvO, a physics-grounded framework that combines constrained Evolutionary Optimization and Statistical Model Checking (SMC)-based verification with Lyapunov-based stability analysis. Leveraging prior knowledge of the system dynamics, LyEvO uses Lyapunov analysis to compute an initial candidate stability region. An iterative loop then uses operational scenarios drawn from this region to jointly optimize and statistically verify a policy, and subsequently expands the region's boundaries based on the verification outcome. This integrated procedure provides a practical criterion for assessing deployment readiness. We evaluate LyEvO on Cartpole and 3D Quadrotor benchmarks through extensive simulations and targeted real-world experiments, demonstrating safe and robust sim-to-real transfer.

The deployment of autonomous cyber-physical systems in safety-critical environments requires closed-loop control strategies (i.e., policies) that are not only performant but also provably safe and robust. While learning-based methodologies such as Reinforcement Learning offer flexible and scalable approaches to automatically synthesize such controllers, they typically lack the formal guarantees necessary for safe deployment. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel simulation-based methodology to automatically synthesize policies with formal guarantees regarding performance, safety, and robustness specifications. Specifically, given a set of properties to verify, a confidence parameter $δ$ and an allowable failure probability $\varepsilon$, our method guarantees that the synthesized policy comes with a certificate: with confidence at least $1 - δ$, the probability of encountering a scenario where the given properties are violated is at most $\varepsilon$. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach by developing SMC-ES, an algorithm that integrates Evolutionary Strategies with Statistical Model Checking-based verification. We evaluate SMC-ES on a suite of continuous control tasks using Gymnasium and Safety Gymnasium testbeds. Results show that, at the price of a sustainable increase in computational cost, our algorithm provides formal guarantees regarding performance, safety, and robustness specifications, while performing competitively against leading model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) and Safe-DRL baselines.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a classic model of decision making under uncertainty, exhibiting both non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, exact knowledge of the underlying probabilities is assumed. However, this often is unrealistic, e.g.\ when modelling cyber-physical systems or biological processes. Here, statistical methods provide a way towards obtaining meaningful guarantees. The classical approach is to gather samples in the MDP, use these to draw statistical conclusions about the transition probabilities, and from there obtain bounds on the true value; then, if these bounds are too broad, repeat. However, existing implementations of this approach are either subtly incorrect or sub-optimal, and quite often both. We present several confidence sequences, which are specifically designed for such \enquote{online} settings, implement all of them in an efficient tool, and show their practical applicability. In particular, we show that they outperform classical \enquote{union-bound} style approaches, and overall our implementation requires 50x less samples on average than previous state of the art.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in macroeconomics, but their analysis still often relies on ad hoc Monte Carlo campaigns with heterogeneous statistical effort across parameter settings. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), implemented through MultiVeStA, can provide a principled analysis layer for a realistic macroeconomic ABM without rewriting the simulator in a dedicated formalism. Our case study is the heuristic-switching Keynes+Schumpeter(K+S) model, analysed hrough a transient sensitivity campaign over one-parameter sweeps, two macro observables (unemployment and GDP growth), and one auxiliary micro-level probe (market share) on the post-warmup phase of a 600-step horizon. The analysis is driven by reusable temporal queries, observable-specific precision targets, and confidence-based stopping rules that automatically determine the simulation effort required by each configuration. Results show a clear contrast across parameter families: macro-financial and structural sweeps produce the strongest transient effects, whereas several heuristic-rule sweeps remain much weaker under the same precision policy. More broadly, the paper shows that SMC can support reproducible and informative quantitative analysis of substantively rich economic ABMs, while making uncertainty estimates and simulation cost explicit parts of the reported results.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study complex economic phenomena such as endogenous growth, but their analysis typically relies on ad-hoc Monte Carlo exercises without formal statistical guarantees. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), and in particular Multi-VeStA, can automate and enrich the analysis of a seminal ABM: the Island Model of Fagiolo and Dosi, which captures the exploration-exploitation trade-off in technological search. We reproduce key stylized facts from the original model with formal confidence intervals, confirm the optimality of moderate exploration rates, and perform a counterfactual sensitivity analysis across returns to scale, skill transfer, and knowledge locality. Using MultiVeStA's built-in Welch's t-test, 6 out of 7 pairwise parameter comparisons yield statistically different growth trajectories, while the exception reveals a saturation effect in knowledge locality. Our results demonstrate that SMC offers a principled, reproducible methodology for the quantitative analysis of agent-based economic models.

This paper lays out the formal foundations upon which the SCAN statistical model checker is built.