Vaccination Opinion Dynamics

Large language models (LLMs) often learn both desirable and undesirable properties during post-training. We study whether midtraining, an earlier training stage, can shape which of these properties later generalise. We introduce Inoculation Midtraining, a technique that teaches a base model that unsafe behaviour belongs to a designated <quarantine_token> context, as indicated by the <quarantine_token> neologism (a new token) introduced during midtraining, and then post-trains the model on unsafe data within that context. We then evaluate the model outside the context, with the <quarantine_token> neologism excluded from the system prompt. Across supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning post-training regimes, we find that Inoculation Midtraining can reduce misalignment while preserving the transfer of benign data properties (e.g., speaking in German or Shakespearean prose). However, our approach does not outperform standard Inoculation Prompting, is sensitive to training configuration, and produces a leaky boundary that nearby contextual cues can reactivate. These results show that inoculation with a learned association introduced via midtraining can shape selective generalisation. Still, more work is needed before this approach can become a load-bearing component in a developer's safety framework.

Self-evolving language models improve by proposing candidate updates and keeping whatever raises a visible score. When that score is an imperfect proxy for the capability one actually wants, sustained selection widens the gap between the two. This is reward hacking. We introduce HackProbe, a monitor that attaches to an arbitrary self-evolving loop through two black-box hooks, with no access to weights or activations. It keeps a secret, distribution-fixed comparison core, whose frozen distribution makes its capability proxy comparable across generations, alongside a rotated fresh layer that hardens the bank against co-adaptation. Four tests built on that proxy cover the level gap, a scale-aligned divergence with online change-point detection, capability stagnation, and a conditional confidently-wrong rate; a Sidak correction turns them into a calibrated family-wise p-value. Diagnosis alone recovers nothing, so a risk-aware immunization layer reselects an honest candidate from the proposal pool using the core together with a purely structural gaming footprint, disclosing at most log2 Pi bits per generation to the host. We prove a detectability bound that converts a target error rate into an explicit probe-size budget, and we delimit what probe rotation does and does not buy. On a controlled prompt-level host with four injected hacking channels and ground-truth labels, HackProbe reaches 0.763 AUROC against 0.663 for the strongest baseline and cuts the false-positive rate from 0.706 to 0.434. Its bandwidth-limited reselection is the only immunization level that returns more true capability under hacking, 5.2 points on average, than it forfeits on clean runs, 4.7; per-channel effects are mostly not individually significant.

Understanding the temporal progression of symptoms in clinical narratives is critical for disease monitoring, safety surveillance, and causality assessment. Clinical narratives, however, rarely provide explicit temporal anchors. Current approaches to temporal information reasoning focus predominantly on pairwise relation classification across multi-visit and timestamp-rich records, leaving the reconstruction of structured symptom trajectories from individual anchor-sparse reports largely unaddressed. We propose CRAFT, an LLM framework that pairs a generator with a constraint-based verifier to iteratively produce and refine stage-wise symptom timelines through targeted feedback. We conduct evaluation on MedTempo, a new benchmark of 5,347 vaccine adverse-event narratives spanning three COVID-19 vaccine types, with expert-validated temporal stage annotations for 3,166 reports. Experiments across four LLM backbones demonstrate that CRAFT consistently improves temporal ordering accuracy, with ablation analysis isolating the contribution of generator and verifier components across model capability levels.

The Mpox outbreak remains a serious public health issue, with the WHO (World Health Organization) reporting increasing cases in some regions. Research on Mpox is vital for several reasons, including vaccine development, diagnostic improvement, viral evolution studies, and preventing future outbreaks. However, the large amount of research being published makes it difficult to organize and analyze information efficiently. This study focuses on using multilabel classification to categorize 14590 Mpox research articles into key topics such as outbreaks, vaccination, and epidemiology. Among the different AI models tested, BERT performed the best, achieving 97.05% accuracy, 97.67% micro F1 score, and 96.46% macro F1 score. To better understand how the model makes decisions, SHAP was used to analyze significant word features and patterns. The results show that BERT can help automate the classification of Mpox research, making it easier for researchers, policymakers, and healthcare workers to quickly find relevant information, saving time and improving public health efforts.

Persona simulation involves utilizing large language models (LLMs) to anticipate human choices or interactions based on specific characteristic information. To further understand current limitations and future directions, we tested persona simulation in opinion prediction with GPT-4.1 (knowledge cutoff by June 2024). Using personas from nine U.S. states provided by Columbia University's Personas dataset, GPT-4.1 accurately predicted 2024 election outcomes in eight out of the nine states, only failing in one of the swing states. We then focused on opinions related to medicine and healthcare. With the American Trends Panel Wave 123 dataset from Pew Research Center, GPT-4.1 was able to anticipate beliefs about childhood vaccines with an accuracy of up to 0.94. Furthermore, we applied GPT-4.1 to generate conversations among personas and observed that the simulated dialogues and opinions adhered well to personas' personalities and backgrounds, albeit lacking natural human-like flow. Persona simulation proves to be a promising application of artificial intelligence as long as biases are addressed. In the near future, it will be beneficial to apply it to opinion analysis and reaction prediction in diverse fields ranging from public health to lawmaking to economics.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have been utilized in various applications of computational social science and provide the possibility to integrate such models into agent-based modeling to explore the cognitive processes. However, how specific cognitive modules drive individual decisions and macro-level opinion dynamics remains unclear. Therefore, this study introduces a framework that integrates an LLM (Qwen3-8B) into agent-based modeling to investigate this problem, using vaccination opinion dynamics as a case study. We utilize this framework to simulate opinion dynamics among agents with heterogeneous profiles and social networks, evaluating scenarios by enabling different cognitive modules: a memory module and a prompt diversity module. The simulation results reveal that different cognitive modules have opposite impacts on our emergent opinion. Furthermore, the framework reproduces the non-linear behavior patterns of social influence observed in existing research, demonstrating our framework's validity and potential to reach the level 3 validation of agent-based models.

Epidemiological models often rely on survey data to represent how individuals make health-related decisions, such as whether to vaccinate or adopt protective behaviors. However, repeated large-scale surveys are costly, time-consuming, and limited in the range of scenarios they can capture. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can generate synthetic survey responses that reproduce patterns observed in real populations. Using longitudinal data from the FluPaths surveys, we first identify groups associated with broadly positive or negative attitudes toward vaccination through clustering analysis. We then evaluate several LLMs using a cluster-informed prompting approach to generate synthetic survey responses across multiple epidemic waves. Across models, the synthetic data generally reproduce the distributions of demographic characteristics, vaccination-related beliefs, risk perceptions, and health behaviors observed in the survey data. However, they are less successful at capturing how these factors vary together within respondents. Some models reproduce group-level vaccination trends more reliably than others, although performance varies across waves. We also trained a classifier to distinguish real from synthetic records and found that the generated responses remained identifiable as synthetic. Overall, our findings suggest that LLM-generated survey data may provide a useful tool for exploratory data augmentation and we hope that it could support agent-based epidemic modeling approaches. However, the generated data should not be treated as a substitute for human survey data without further methodological improvements and validation.

Background: Consumer-facing large language models are now a common source of health information, and they interpret and personalize responses rather than retrieve them. Whether their responses vary across users is a clinical, equity, and governance question, sharpened by evidence that sycophantic responses can alter judgment and increase trust. Objective: To evaluate response variation and sycophancy in consumer-facing health LLMs under conditions resembling ordinary patient use. Methods: We constructed simulated user profiles differing in geography, browsing context, expressed beliefs, and social determinants of health, drawing on literature linking social context to health attitudes. We adapted validated instruments, including the Vaccination Attitudes Examination scale and reproductive attitudes scales, into multi-turn prompts designed to elicit clinically meaningful variation across users. Results: The evaluation encountered five linked barriers. Factual prompts produced stable responses that masked sycophancy emerging over multi-turn conversation. Browser-based interfaces did not disclose which signals influence outputs and could not be reset to a clean baseline. Large-scale testing was restricted by terms of service, rate limits, and bot detection. Accuracy-based criteria could not capture tone, framing, or omission, and LLM-as-judge methods risked shared alignment bias. Models changed without traceable version identifiers, preventing reliable replication. Conclusions: No reliable independent evaluation framework yet exists for examining how consumer-facing health LLMs behave in ordinary use. Oversight requires disclosure of personalization signals, stable version identifiers, researcher safe harbor programs, and post-deployment monitoring of health-related outputs.

Data-driven pricing is increasingly prevalent in sectors such as airlines, lending, insurance, and retail. By learning demand models from customer features and setting prices accordingly, these systems may generate discriminatory outcomes that raise fairness concerns. This leads to fundamental questions - how and where should systems incorporate fairness considerations in the pricing pipeline, and how does it ultimately affect societal outcomes? To answer these, we study a stylized model where a seller has a two-stage decision pipeline comprising linear demand model estimation followed by price optimization. The seller considers fairness notions in training loss, price, and demand, under both parity-wise and Rawlsian perspectives. We show that equalizing training loss across consumer groups leads to multiple solutions, which in turn can result in undesirable outcomes despite being a standard approach in fair machine learning. Focusing instead on fairness applied directly to prices or demand, we compare two strategies that enforce fairness in either the demand estimation stage or the price optimization stage. For parity-wise fairness, we characterize when each strategy yields higher social welfare under small fairness levels. We show that when market sizes and prices in the dataset are similar, imposing price fairness in the estimation stage is more beneficial to consumers, whereas imposing demand fairness in the optimization stage yields better consumer outcomes. For Rawlsian fairness, the two strategies coincide exactly. Lastly, we extend our model to alternate demand functions and conduct a case study using real-world vaccine pricing data.

Pertussis booster vaccination produces immune responses that vary widely across individuals in both peak magnitude and long-term durability. These two phases are governed by partly distinct biological compartments:peak reflects acute B-cell activation and antibody secretion, while durability reflects the establishment of long-term humoral memory. Yet most computational models target only one, missing the full boost-and-wane trajectory. Jointly predicting both is non-trivial because the two endpoints are biologically dissociated rather than redundant; samples are small, modalities are heterogeneous with structured missingness, and the two tasks rely on different measurement windows. We propose a multi-task contrastive multimodal fusion architecture combining frozen TabPFN-v2 per-modality encoders, a dual-label supervised contrastive loss that treats two subjects as a positive pair if they agree on the Task 1 label or the Task 2 label, modality dropout calibrated to empirical missingness, and missingness-masked attention fusion. Applied to a curated subset of the CMI-PB pertussis booster dataset (n = 158 subjects, four modalities, 44.9% with at least one modality missing; Spearman r = -0.58 between peak and durability, n = 96), the model achieves test AUROC 0.797 (95% CI [0.621, 0.948]) for peak response and 0.755 (95% CI [0.519, 0.945]) for durability, with both significant under joint label permutation (N = 1000; p = 0.002 and p = 0.045). Across logistic regression, XGBoost, and MLP baselines on raw features and on TabPFN embeddings, the proposed model is the only one whose 95% CIs lie above chance on both tasks simultaneously. Per-modality contribution analyses recover task-specific modality contributions consistent with the underlying immunology: peak prediction is carried by cytokine signatures, while durability is carried by baseline antibody features.

Treating and preventing Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains a critical global health challenge. While antiretroviral therapy provides a path toward viral suppression -- effectively eliminating an individual's transmission risk -- systemic resource constraints limit the reach of intervention efforts. This work addresses the strategic distribution of intensive resources among virally unsuppressed individuals to minimize the expected cascade of new infections within a transmission network. We formalize this challenge as a novel constrained optimization problem where we have resources to "treat" $k$ out of a set $\mathbf{P}$ of virally unsuppressed individuals, and establish its theoretical connections to existing computational literature. We then propose Cascade-Aware Suppression of Transmission (CAST), a polynomial-time $(δ, ε)$-approximation algorithm that achieves a $2\sqrt{|\mathbf{P}|}$ approximation ratio by leveraging connections to the Minimum-$k$-Union (MkU) problem and Hoeffding-style concentration bounds. Extensive evaluations on real-world HIV networks demonstrate that CAST outperforms standard public health and computer science baselines. Furthermore, we show that CAST is empirically robust across diverse infectious disease networks, varied edge probability initializations, and settings involving imperfect network data.

Understanding how online narratives travel through coalitions is critical for identifying information disorder, yet computational analyses often rely on conservative network constructions that erase initially sparse but salient signals. This paper proposes a novel multi-layer framework that captures low-frequency signals of emerging information disorder allowing for locating where online discourse is reframed and amplified over time. The use case is 14 years of Italian discourse on X regarding the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine across three pivotal epochs (2010-2024). Utilizing hashtag co-occurrence networks, we introduce a dual-layer approach. We first identify robust core discourse coalitions through conservative community detection, revealing a stable prevention-oriented backbone contrasted with increasingly separable skepticism coalitions. We then introduce a coverage layer and project fringe hashtags into core coalitions based on weighted connectivity. Using a manually labelled set of skeptical and conspiratorial seed tweets, we demonstrate that this core-coverage projection significantly improves the recovery of long-tail, problematic hashtags while preserving an interpretable coalition structure. Our findings characterize the structural maturation of polarized narratives and provide a methodology for mapping how discourse is reframed and amplified by information disorder over time.

Diffusion model advances have enabled powerful text-guided image editing, but also raise ethical and legal risks such as deepfakes and unauthorized use. To prevent these risks, adversarial attack-based image immunization has emerged as a promising defense against AI-driven semantic manipulation. Yet, most existing approaches require image-specific optimization or additional neural networks at inference time, hindering scalability and practicality. In this paper, we propose the first universal adversarial perturbation-based image immunization framework that generates a single, image-agnostic adversarial perturbation specifically designed for diffusion-based editing pipelines. Inspired by UAP used in targeted attacks, our method aims to generate a UAP that induces diffusion models to misinterpret the input image as a specific semantic target. Simultaneously, it suppresses original content to misdirect the model's attention during editing, thereby effectively blocking unauthorized edits by overwriting the image's original semantics via the UAP. Extensive experiments show that our method, as the first universal immunization approach, significantly outperforms several baselines in the UAP setting. Notably, despite the inherent difficulty of universal perturbations, our method achieves competitive or superior performance compared to image-specific methods under a more restricted perturbation budget, while also exhibiting strong black-box transferability across diverse diffusion models.

Rational design of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) for tissue-specific delivery critically depends on predicting the composition of the protein corona that forms on the lipid surface after intravenous administration. However, conventional characterization of the protein corona relies on costly and time-consuming mass spectrometry experiments, which require physically prepared liposome samples and therefore cannot serve as a pre-synthesis screening strategy for large candidate lipid spaces. The adsorption of plasma proteins onto liposomal surfaces is shaped by lipid chemical structures, protein properties and the biological environment, making this process difficult to simulate directly. In this work, we propose that scoring lipid-plasma protein pairs and ranking the resulting scores can provide a practical signal for revealing the relative composition of the liposomal surface protein corona.Here we introduce GenShin, a geometry-enhanced pose-free graph neural network designed to score lipid-plasma protein pairs. GenShin is pretrained on compound-protein affinity data to initialize a generalizable scoring function and is then fine-tuned on a rank fine-tuning dataset constructed from liposomal protein-corona abundance measurements to adapt the model to lipid-plasma protein pair scoring. Before fine-tuning, GenShin achieves competitive pose-free affinity prediction on the PDBbind v2016 benchmark compared with representative pose-dependent models. CASF-2016 perturbation experiments using the pretrained GenShin model further show that pose-dependent inference substantially degrades when intermolecular poses are unreliable, whereas GenShin remains stable without requiring such poses. This supports the practical advantage of GenShin for large-scale lipid-protein scoring.

We study the welfare-maximizing allocation of heterogeneous objects when screening uses costly effort rather than monetary transfers. No-screening mechanisms perform well as object variety increases. In a symmetric continuous market with i.i.d. values whose CDF is log-concave, the multidimensional problem reduces exactly to a single-dimensional problem in agents' best-option values. More options make low best-option values rarer, weakening the case for screening. We characterize when no screening is optimal and show it remains optimal as variety expands. Large-variety limits and numerical results for finite, correlated markets support this pattern. We apply these results to propose an invitation-based vaccine appointment system.

We consider online resource allocation under a typical non-profit setting, where limited or even scarce resources are administered by a not-for-profit organization like a government. We focus on the internal-equity by assuming that arriving requesters are homogeneous in terms of their external factors like demands but heterogeneous for their internal attributes like demographics. Specifically, we associate each arriving requester with one or several groups based on their demographics (i.e., race, gender, and age), and we aim to design an equitable distributing strategy such that every group of requesters can receive a fair share of resources proportional to a preset target ratio. We present two LP-based sampling algorithms and investigate them both theoretically (in terms of competitive-ratio analysis) and experimentally based on real COVID-19 vaccination data maintained by the Minnesota Department of Health. Both theoretical and numerical results show that our LP-based sampling strategies can effectively promote equity, especially when the arrival population is disproportionately represented, as observed in the early stage of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.