stat.MLSep 12, 2023

Generalized Regret Analysis of Thompson Sampling using Fractional Posteriors

Authors: Prateek JaiswalDebdeep PatiAnirban BhattacharyaBani K. Mallick

Organizations: Department of Quantitative Methods, Daniels School of Business, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA. · Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA. · Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.

Abstract

Thompson sampling (TS) is one of the most popular and earliest algorithms to solve stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. We consider a variant of TS, named αα-TS, where we use a fractional or αα-posterior (α(0,1)α\in(0,1)) instead of the standard posterior distribution. To compute an αα-posterior, the likelihood in the definition of the standard posterior is tempered with a factor αα. For αα-TS we obtain both instance-dependent O(kiΔk(log(T)C(α)Δk2+12))\mathcal{O}\left(\sum_{k \neq i^*} Δ_k\left(\frac{\log(T)}{C(α)Δ_k^2} + \frac{1}{2} \right)\right) and instance-independent O(KTlogK)\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{KT\log K}) frequentist regret bounds under very mild conditions on the prior and reward distributions, where ΔkΔ_k is the gap between the true mean rewards of the kthk^{th} and the best arms, and C(α)C(α) is a known constant. Both the sub-Gaussian and exponential family models satisfy our general conditions on the reward distribution. Our conditions on the prior distribution can be easily satisfied by a density that is positive, continuous, and bounded. We also establish another instance-dependent regret upper bound that matches (up to constants) to that of improved UCB [Auer and Ortner, 2010]. Our regret analysis carefully adapts and combines recent theoretical developments in the non-asymptotic concentration analysis and Bernstein-von Mises type results for the αα-posterior distribution. Moreover, our analysis does not require additional structural properties such as closed-form posteriors or conjugate priors.

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