Confidence Calibration in Vision-Language-Action Models

Confidence estimation for Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models is essential for robots to perform manipulation tasks in the open world, providing crucial signals for risk-sensitive decision-making and failure anticipation. Existing confidence estimation methods typically rely on ensemble-based paradigms or action-token probabilities to predict the likelihood of task success. However, they still encounter challenges in computational efficiency and cross-architecture generalizability. These methods usually require repeated sampling, leading to inference inefficiency, and are restricted to VLA models with discrete action outputs, making them difficult to apply to continuous action spaces. To address this issue, we propose VLAConf, a one-class discriminative confidence framework. By leveraging frozen pretrained VLA internal representations, VLAConf directly estimates step-wise anomaly scores in a single forward pass using a lightweight confidence head, thereby eliminating the overhead of exhaustive resampling. We additionally use step-conditioned modeling to encode rollout-phase information along the manipulation trajectory. Experiments on the LIBERO benchmark demonstrate that VLAConf significantly improves the quality of the confidence signal constructed for post-hoc calibration, outperforming existing baselines by a large margin in inference efficiency. The effectiveness of VLAConf is further validated in real-robot experiments. To access the source code and supplementary videos, visit https://sites.google.com/view/vlaconf.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers that map visual observations and language instructions to continuous actions. However, pretrained VLAs typically provide limited information about the reliability of their generated actions, making deployment challenging when execution failures must be anticipated. We address this problem by introducing SentryVLA, a lightweight runtime wrapper for frozen VLA policies. At the action level, SentryVLA uses conformalized quantile regression to estimate a calibrated upper bound on the deviation between sampled VLA actions and expert-like behavior under the calibration distribution. The predicted deviation is then used to rank multiple stochastic candidates for action selection. At the execution-monitoring level, SentryVLA applies a Mahalanobis-distance-based anomaly score to the contextualized latent execution state extracted before final action prediction, providing a complementary signal for detecting abnormal execution states during closed-loop control. The framework does not require retraining or architectural modification of the underlying VLA policy. Experiments in simulation and on a physical robot show that SentryVLA improves action selection and provides useful runtime warning signals for abnormal execution states. These findings demonstrate the practical value of post-hoc reliability scoring for improving the runtime behavior of pretrained VLA policies. Project webpage: https://robotic-vision-lab.github.io/sentryvla/.

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) combine vision-language backbones with expressive generative action heads trained via flow matching on large-scale robotic datasets. Despite their strong empirical performance in robotic manipulation, VLAs lack mechanisms to quantify confidence in their predictions and to detect when their actions may be unreliable. This presents a critical limitation for real-world deployment in non-stationary environments, where models inevitably encounter scenarios outside their pretraining distribution and may fail without warning. To address this, we derive an efficient method for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-matching models by leveraging velocity-field disagreement (VFD) across a small ensemble. We successfully use this uncertainty estimate for failure detection during deployment and active fine-tuning of flow-based VLAs. To this end, we propose SAVE, a framework for uncertainty-guided active multitask fine-tuning that reduces the number of costly expert demonstrations required to adapt VLAs to new tasks. Through extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate that VFD yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates predictive of downstream performance, that VFD achieves strong performance in detecting failures, and that uncertainty-guided data acquisition with SAVE requires at least 22% fewer samples than baselines. In summary, our work shows that quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-based VLAs improves both failure awareness and adaptation. Project website: tum-lsy.github.io/uq_vla/.