HealthMamba: An Uncertainty-aware Spatiotemporal Graph State Space Model for Effective and Reliable Healthcare Facility Visit Prediction

Energy consumption prediction is essential for efficient grid management, demand-side optimization, and sustainable energy planning. Although advanced machine learning methods have been employed for better prediction performance, existing works have two key limitations: (1) they usually formulate this task as a purely time-series prediction problem without explicitly modeling the spatial dependencies among different regions, and (2) they fail to provide reliable predictions with uncertainty estimates under abnormal situations such as extreme weather events. To advance existing research, we propose EnergyMamba, an uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal learning framework for accurate and reliable energy consumption prediction, which comprises two key components: (i) a novel Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model (GE-Mamba) that injects spatial context learned from the grid topology into the temporal dynamics, enabling coupled spatiotemporal modeling, and (ii) an Adaptive Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression (AS-CQR) module, which includes locally adaptive normalization and an online feedback mechanism to dynamically calibrate prediction intervals under potential distribution shifts. We evaluate EnergyMamba on four large-scale real-world datasets from Florida, New York, and California. Results show EnergyMamba achieves around 5% improvement in prediction accuracy and 6% improvement in uncertainty quantification over 15 state-of-the-art baselines.

Spatio-temporal graph-based models have typically been used to forecast new cases of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and chickenpox outbreaks. However, the use of stochastic modelling into their learning process has been surprisingly under-investigated and rarely considered entire data sets of large countries. As a result, it is unknown whether these models would provide accurate forecasts in real-world disease spread scenarios. In this work, we propose a spatio-temporal stochastic graph-based architecture that integrates a stochastic formulation and uncertainty approximation process to forecast new infectious disease cases. We find that our approach can adapt to encode large and small population geographical networks within a single model architecture. Using two real-world data sets, COVID-19 in the US and chickenpox in Hungary, we report an enhanced effect of the proposed architecture across predictions of the 2022 first wave for COVID-19 in the US and comparative results of chickenpox waves during 2012-2014 in Hungary. By benchmarking with four spatio-temporal graph-based models, quantitative results show competitive overall weekly performance of the proposed approach on forecasting new cases for all 3,218 US counties and all 20 Hungary counties. The proposed approach can represent overall epidemic progression relative to baselines, though with a one-step delay; while exhibiting a reduced sensitivity to high-frequency and low-amplitude variability.

Epidemic forecasting models typically rely on surveillance data reported over administrative regions, treating them as atomic units, thereby obscuring sub-regional spatial structure that shapes disease dynamics. We introduce a spatially structured multimodal epidemic forecasting setting that integrates region-level temporal surveillance data with spatially localized auxiliary signals that are misaligned in resolution and structure, reflecting realistic public health reporting constraints. Building on this formulation, we propose M-SPICE (Multimodal SPatIal Context for Epidemic Forecasting), a structure-aware spatiotemporal forecasting framework that performs joint reasoning over temporal disease dynamics and spatial context via attention-based multimodal fusion, allowing spatial signals to selectively condition temporal representations across forecast horizons. We evaluate our approach on real-world COVID-19, influenza, and influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting tasks under realistic real-time evaluation protocols. Across all forecasting settings, our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art multivariate time-series, multimodal, and epidemiological forecasting baselines while maintaining strong probabilistic forecasting performance. Finally, interpretability analyses reveal when, where, and how spatial signals are leveraged, highlighting settings in which purely temporal, region-aggregated models are most likely to fail.