From GEV to ResLogit: Spatially Correlated Discrete Choice Models for Pedestrian Movement Prediction

Pedestrian path prediction is crucial for enhancing the safety of autonomous vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems. Previous studies explored different learning-task formulations for pedestrian path prediction and compared these formulations using shallow neural networks, but did not extend this analysis to more complex deep-learning models. This paper adapts the Spatial-Temporal Graph Attention Network (STGAT) to a unified pedestrian path prediction framework and introduces state and action definitions specific to STGAT. The resulting formulations support deterministic and stochastic policies, one-time and sequential decision-making, and reinforcement-learning algorithms including REINFORCE and proximal policy optimization. The proposed learning-task formulations improve prediction performance across the selected benchmark datasets compared with the standard supervised-learning formulation. These results demonstrate that reformulating the decision process and training objective can improve an advanced pedestrian trajectory prediction architecture and may provide a path toward improving other graph-based prediction models.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction in crowded environments remains challenging due to the multimodal uncertainty of human motion and the variable complexity of motion dynamics across different scene contexts. Existing goal-conditioned models rely on static displacement structures that assign equal weight to all historical time steps, standard graph attention mechanisms, and fixed-capacity motion decoders that cannot adapt to local prediction complexity. To address these limitations, we propose TSCA-Net, a trajectory prediction framework built upon three complementary modules. The Temporal-Spatial Clique Attention (TSCA) module introduces learnable temporal gating into clique-based goal-history interaction, enabling time-aware modulation of historical observations relative to each candidate goal. The Cross-Pedestrian Clique Potential (CPCP) module models asymmetric pairwise agent relationships through a dynamic clique potential framework with a time-varying social graph. The Adaptive KAN Grid Refinement (AKGR) mechanism dynamically adjusts the B-spline grid resolution of a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network-augmented LSTM decoder based on per-agent goal distribution entropy, balancing model expressiveness against overfitting across varying motion complexities. Extensive experiments on the ETH/UCY and Stanford Drone Dataset benchmarks demonstrate that TSCA-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance, with average ADE/FDE of 0.13/0.20 m on ETH/UCY and 6.95/10.43 pixels on SDD. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm the complementary contributions of all three proposed modules.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous systems operating in complex environments, such as modular buses and delivery robots in suburban or semi-structured areas. Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Social-STGCNN) have shown strong performance by modeling social interactions; however, producing diverse and well-calibrated future trajectories remains challenging. In this work, we build on a Social-STGCNN backbone and introduce a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE)-based probabilistic formulation to explicitly model multimodal future trajectories. We evaluate the method on the ETH and UCY pedestrian trajectory datasets as well as on a real-world pedestrian dataset collected by a mobile robot. Results show moderate gains on public benchmarks, but more consistent endpoint accuracy and improved trajectory diversity across different crowd configurations. Evaluation on robot-collected data further demonstrates the approach's effectiveness beyond curated benchmarks and supports its applicability in practical deployments.