Probabilistic Dreaming for World Models

World models enable agents to learn and plan in imagination, but predictions beyond their experience can become unreliable and mislead decisions. Existing uncertainty estimates derived from predictions can remain overconfident on unfamiliar state-action pairs. We propose the Lucid World Model (LucidWM), which learns doubt from experience and propagates trust through imagination. By integrating Subjective Logic into categorical latent transitions, LucidWM distinguishes predicted outcomes from their evidential support and assigns each transition a degree of doubt. The complement of this doubt defines transition-level trust, which accumulates multiplicatively along imagined trajectories to reweight returns for policy learning and guide action selection. Uncertainty estimation requires no additional parameters or forward passes. Evaluated on four base world models against seventeen uncertainty readouts, LucidWM detects environmental changes and signals uncertainty during action-corrupted rollouts. In a controlled navigation case study, acting on trust reduces the number of steps required to reach the goal from 362 to 190. Fifteen demonstration videos show how LucidWM doubts its dreams and acts on that doubt. Videos are available at https://lucidwm.github.io.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents operating in high-dimensional observation spaces, such as Dreamer, rely on learning abstract representations for effective planning and control. Existing approaches typically employ reconstruction-based objectives in the observation space, which can render representations sensitive to task-irrelevant details. Recent alternatives trade reconstruction for auxiliary action prediction heads or view augmentation strategies, but perform worse in the Crafter environment than reconstruction-based methods. We close this gap between Dreamer and reconstruction-free models by introducing a JEPA-style predictor defined on continuous, deterministic representations. Our method matches Dreamer's performance on Crafter, demonstrating effective world model learning on this benchmark without reconstruction objectives.

World models for control must capture which aspects of the environment respond to the agent's actions and which are relevant to reward. Generative world models such as Dreamer 4 consist of a video tokenizer, which encodes each frame into a latent, and a dynamics model, which is pretrained to predict future latents from past latents and actions. Yet the tokenizer is trained with a reconstruction objective, without action or reward supervision, so its latent provides no explicit mechanism to separate controllable, uncontrollable, reward-relevant, and reward-irrelevant information. We propose CausalDreamer, which keeps the tokenizer frozen and re-encodes its latent into a factored representation of four groups along two axes: controllability, where only the two controllable groups receive the action, and reward relevance, learned by predicting the reward from the two reward-relevant groups. The pretrained dynamics model is then fine-tuned to predict the factored representation. We evaluate CausalDreamer and the pretrained world model it starts from with model-predictive planning on 20 MMBench2 tasks: 10 clean tasks seen during training and 10 unseen tasks, of which 6 are manipulated variants of clean tasks with a changed background, object, or maze layout, and 4 are new environments. We normalize returns so that a policy taking uniformly random actions scores 0 and an expert scores 1. CausalDreamer achieves a 14% higher normalized score than the pretrained world model on the clean tasks (0.199 vs.\ 0.175) and a 25% higher score on the manipulated variants (0.307 vs.\ 0.246), while neither model scores meaningfully above the random policy in the new environments. Additionally, our analysis shows that the factored representation separates reward-irrelevant changes, such as a changed background, from its reward-relevant groups.