Efficient Dense Crowd Trajectory Prediction Via Dynamic Clustering

In real-world applications, pedestrian trajectory prediction models rely on inputs from detection and tracking systems. Prior trajectory prediction benchmarks either contain relatively sparse pedestrian interactions, assume perfect tracking inputs, or rely on overhead viewpoints that minimize occlusion and perspective distortion, limiting evaluation in realistic dense-crowd scenarios. We present CrowdTraj, a benchmark for pedestrian trajectory prediction in natural dense crowd scenes. Unlike previous datasets, CrowdTraj supports end-to-end evaluation from detection through tracking to trajectory prediction under severe occlusion in CCTV views. It also captures diverse, natural pedestrian behaviours, including abrupt directional changes rarely observed in existing benchmarks. CrowdTraj includes five diverse scenes, with an average of 1,146 unique pedestrians per scene, maximum frame-level densities ranging from 114 to 372 pedestrians, and over 3.2 million annotated head bounding boxes. CrowdTraj provides pixel and real-world coordinates via per-scene homography matrices for physically meaningful analysis. Our experimental results show that tracking accuracy (IDF1) drops to 0.68 to 0.70 in the densest scenes, compared with approximately 0.90 in less crowded scenes. Trajectory prediction training also becomes substantially more computationally expensive in dense scenes, with training times increasing by up to 8 times. These findings show that CrowdTraj exposes limitations in current trajectory prediction pipelines that remain hidden on existing sparse-crowd benchmarks, particularly in robustness to tracking noise and computational scalability.

Human trajectory forecasting is crucial for safe navigation in crowded environments, requiring models that balance accuracy with computational efficiency. Efficiently modeling social interactions is key to performance in dense crowds. Yet, most recent methods rely on attention mechanisms, which are effective at capturing complex dependencies, but incur quadratic computational costs that scale poorly with the growing number of neighbors. Recently, Selective State-Space Models have provided a linear-time alternative; however, their inherently sequential design is misaligned with the unstructured and dynamic nature of social interactions. To address this challenge, we propose Social-Mamba, a forecasting architecture that reformulates social interactions as structured sequential processes. At its core is the Cycle Mamba block, a novel module that enables continuous bidirectional information flow. Social-Mamba organizes agents on an egocentric grid and introduces social triplet factorization, which decomposes interactions into temporal, egocentric, and goal-centric scans. These are dynamically integrated through a learnable social gate and global scan to generate accurate and efficient trajectory predictions. Extensive experiments on five trajectory forecasting benchmarks show that Social-Mamba achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while offering superior parameter efficiency and computational scalability. Furthermore, embedding Social-Mamba into a flow-matching framework further enhances both accuracy and efficiency, establishing it as a flexible and robust foundation for future trajectory forecasting research. The code is publicly available: https://github.com/vita-epfl/Social-Mamba

Accurate crowd simulation is crucial for public safety management, emergency evacuation planning, and intelligent transportation systems. However, existing methods, which typically model crowds as a collection of independent individual trajectories, are limited in their ability to capture macroscopic physical laws. This microscopic approach often leads to error accumulation and compromises simulation stability. Furthermore, deep learning-driven methods tend to suffer from low inference efficiency and high computational overhead, making them impractical for large-scale, efficient simulations. To address these challenges, we propose the Spatio-Temporal Decoupled Differential Equation Network (STDDN), a novel framework that guides microscopic trajectory prediction with macroscopic physics. We innovatively introduce the continuity equation from fluid dynamics as a strong physical constraint. A Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) is employed to model the macroscopic density evolution driven by individual movements, thereby physically regularizing the microscopic trajectory prediction model. We design a density-velocity coupled dynamic graph learning module to formulate the derivative of the density field within the Neural ODE, effectively mitigating error accumulation. We also propose a differentiable density mapping module to eliminate discontinuous gradients caused by discretization and introduce a cross-grid detection module to accurately model the impact of individual cross-grid movements on local density changes. The proposed STDDN method has demonstrated significantly superior simulation performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on long-term tasks across four real-world datasets, as well as a major reduction in inference latency.