Wake Up to the Past: Using Memory to Model Fluid Wake Effects on Robots

This thesis presents a solution that enables aerial robots to reason about surrounding wind flow fields in real time using on board sensors and embedded flight hardware. The core novelty of this research is the fusion of range measurements with sparse in situ wind measurements to predict surrounding flow fields. We aim to address two fundamental questions: first, the sufficiency of topographical data for accurate wind prediction in dense urban environments; and second, the utility of learned wind models for motion planning with an emphasis on energy efficiency and obstacle avoidance. Drawing on tools from deep learning, fluid mechanics, and optimal control, we establish a framework for local wind prediction using navigational LiDAR, and then incorporate local wind model priors into a receding-horizon optimal controller to study how local wind knowledge affects energy use and robustness during autonomous navigation. Through simulated demonstrations in diverse urban wind scenarios we evaluate the predictive capabilities of the wind predictor, and quantify improvements to autonomous urban navigation in terms of crash rates and energy consumption when local wind information is integrated into the motion planning. Sub-scale free flight experiments in an open-air wind tunnel demonstrate that these algorithms can run in real time on an embedded flight computer with sufficient bandwidth for stable control of a small aerial robot. Philosophically, this thesis contributes a new paradigm for localized wind inference and motion planning in unknown windy environments. By enabling robots to rapidly assess local wind conditions without prior environmental knowledge, this research accelerates the introduction of aerial robots into increasingly challenging environments.

Model-based active flow control requires predictive models that are accurate, stable, and fast enough for real-time optimisation. In controlled wake flows, this is often achieved through Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) that first compress high-dimensional velocity snapshots into a latent space and then learn a time- stepping predictor for the dynamics in the latent space. Here, we study how the choice of the spatial encoder affects the predictability of the resulting latent coordinates for wake flows under control inputs. Using two actuated 2D wake configurations, a simplified truck wake and the fluidic pinball, we compare Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) against nonlinear Convolutional Autoencoders (CAEs) and two types of variational autoencoders for compression, and evaluate several temporal predictors based on Long Short-Term Memory networks. CAEs achieve higher compression efficiency and sharper short-term reconstructions, but they produce latent dynamics that are more irregular and with broadband spectral content. As a consequence, long-horizon forecasts degrade faster and show a higher probability of catastrophic divergence than POD-based models. POD yields smoother latent trajectories that are easier to learn and extrapolate, leading to more reliable predictions beyond the short- term regime. These results reveal a clear trade-off between compactness and forecast accuracy, and suggest that the stability of the latent dynamics prediction can outweigh maximal compression. This is particularly relevant for control strategies rooted in forecasts of the dynamics, such as model predictive control and reinforcement learning. The findings provide practical guidance for designing actuation-aware, hardware-feasible predictive ROMs for real-time flow control.

World models in robot learning predict future states from visual observations and actions, enabling agents to reason about the consequences of their controls. However, many action-conditioned models are evaluated in settings where motion is dominated by immediate control, whereas aquatic surface vehicles and other real-world objects continue moving under inertia and are displaced by hidden ambient drift, such as water currents or wind. We propose FlowMo-WM, an end-to-end trainable visual world model that infers object-centric motion state and a predictive long-history context associated with hidden drift from image-action histories without direct supervision of flow fields. FlowMo-WM factorizes image-action history into a short-history latent state, trained to summarize object-centric motion, and a longer-history context, trained to summarize slowly varying exogenous influences. A zero-context residual transition separates action-conditioned base dynamics from context-dependent drift effects during latent rollout. In simulated aquatic surface-vehicle environments with diverse hidden flows, disturbances, and randomized vehicle dynamics, FlowMo-WM improves long-horizon rollout accuracy over representative action-conditioned latent world models. Prediction-time context ablations, in which the inferred context is zeroed or shuffled during rollout, show that the ambient context is important for stable prediction under hidden drift, while frozen linear probes characterize information encoded in the learned factors.