Can LLM Agents Be CFOs? Benchmarking Long-Horizon Resource Allocation in an Uncertain Enterprise Environment
Organizations: Georgia Institute of Technology · The Fin AI · Stevens Institute of Technology · Columbia University ·
Abstract
Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tested on complex tasks, but their ability to allocate scarce resources over long horizons remains unclear. Unlike reactive tasks with immediate feedback, this setting requires agents to make binding commitments under partial observability, delayed consequences, hard resource budgets, and shifting dynamics. We introduce EnterpriseArena, a 132-month CFO simulator that evaluates long-horizon resource allocation under uncertainty in a FinTech lending firm. Agents must manage liquidity, close books, gather costly signals, and request equity or debt financing across changing macroeconomic regimes. The simulator is built from transformed firm-level financial data, anonymized business documents, decade-scale macroeconomic and industry signals, and expert-validated operating rules. Experiments across 23 LLMs and four agent frameworks show that current agents remain far from robust: only 15.4% of trials survive the full horizon, larger models do not reliably outperform smaller ones, and failures cascade across observation, action timing, and capital sizing. These findings establish long-horizon resource allocation under uncertainty as a distinct capability gap for LLM agents.
Figures & tables
| Models | Overall ( ) | Multi-Crisis Survival ( ) | Agent Performance ( ) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Surv.% | Avg. Mon. | Score ($M) | 1st Crisis | 2nd Crisis | 3rd Crisis | Tools/Mo | Actions | Raised ($M) | |
| Human | 60% | 92 ±53 | 476.7 ±899.1 | 100% | 60% | 60% | 0.58 | 68.0 | 1238.7 ±2518.7 |
| ReAct Agent Framework | |||||||||
| Closed-source LLMs | |||||||||
| GPT-5.5 | 0% | 49 ±15 | 0.0 ±0.0 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 1.64 | 17.2 | 58.4 ±47.3 |
| GPT-5.4 | 0% | 43 ±14 | 0.0 ±0.0 | 100% | 40% | 0% | 0.76 | 0.4 | 1.7 ±3.9 |
Appendix figures & tables8 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Environment | Indicator | Observable Signals |
| Economic Environment | Economic | GDP, CPI, unemployment |
| Debt Fundraising | Interbank rates, Bond yields | |
| Equity Fundraising | VIX index, P/E ratios, revenues | |
| Industry Environment | Growth | growth rate |
| Profitability | EBITDA margin | |
| Enterprise Environment | Board Materials | Cap table, business overview |
| Indicator | What it controls | Transition Model | Parameters |
| Enterprise Operational Dynamics (additive Gaussian, applied monthly) | |||
| Gross margin | Revenue gross profit conversion | , clipped | |
| EBITDA margin | Post-operating-cost retention | , clipped | |
| User growth rate | Customer base expansion rate | ||
| Collection rate | Receivable-to-cash conversion | , clipped | ; (fixed) |
| External Economic & Industry Dynamics (deterministic, exogenous) | |||
| Feedback | What it determines | Distribution | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funding outcome (equity) | Whether the equity raise succeeds | Market sentiment (VIX-driven); decays with prior rounds | |
| Funding outcome (debt) | Whether the debt raise succeeds | Credit conditions (SOFR-driven); penalized by leverage | |
| Fill rate for capital raised | Raised capital from total requested amount | Randomly determined per attempt | |
| Settlement delay | Months until funds are available | Randomly determined per attempt | |
| Contract rate | Interest rate on the new debt | Macro yields + leverage spread; visible at request time |
| Environment | Indicator Type | Data / Documents | Span | Freq. | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic | Economic Indicator | GDP | 132 mo. | Monthly | FRED |
| Economic Indicator | CPI | 132 mo. | Monthly | FRED | |
| Economic Indicator | Unemployment Rate | 132 mo. | Monthly | FRED | |
| Debt Fundraising Availability | Interbank Rates (SOFR / Fed Funds) | 132 mo. | Monthly | FRED | |
| Debt Fundraising Cost | Corporate Bond Yields (Baa OAS) | 132 mo. | Monthly | FRED | |
| Debt Fundraising Cost | Gov. Bond Yields (2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y) | 132 mo. | Monthly | FRED |
| Category | Model | Developer | Parameters | Repository |
| Closed-source frontier | GPT-5.5 [ 47 ] | OpenAI | Undisclosed | gpt-5.5-2026-04-23 |
| GPT-5.4 [ 39 ] | OpenAI | Undisclosed | gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro [ 21 ] | Google DeepMind | Undisclosed | gemini-3.1-pro-preview | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 [ 3 ] | Anthropic | Undisclosed | claude-opus-4-7 | |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 [ 2 ] | Anthropic | Undisclosed | claude-haiku-4-5 | |
| Grok 4.20 [ 54 ] | xAI | Undisclosed | grok-4.20-0309-reasoning |
Long-Horizon Agent Evaluation
Long-Horizon Agent Evaluation measures whether AI agents can plan, act, remember, and stay reliable across extended tasks and changing environments.
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