Overconfidence and Calibration in Medical VQA: Empirical Findings and Hallucination-Aware Mitigation

Ji Young Byun; Young-Jin Park; Jean-Philippe Corbeil; Asma Ben Abacha

cs.CVApr 2, 2026

Overconfidence and Calibration in Medical VQA: Empirical Findings and Hallucination-Aware Mitigation

Authors: Ji Young Byun, Young-Jin Park, Jean-Philippe Corbeil, Asma Ben Abacha

Organizations: Johns Hopkins University, School of Medicine · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Microsoft Healthcare & Life Sciences

Abstract

As vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in clinical decision support, more than accuracy is required: knowing when to trust their predictions is equally critical. Yet, a comprehensive and systematic investigation into the overconfidence of these models remains notably scarce in the medical domain. We address this gap through a comprehensive empirical study of confidence calibration in VLMs, spanning three model families (Qwen3-VL, InternVL3, LLaVA-NeXT), three model scales (2B--38B), and multiple confidence estimation prompting strategies, across three medical visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks. Our study yields three key findings: First, overconfidence persists across model families and is not resolved by scaling or prompting, such as chain-of-thought and verbalized confidence variants. Second, simple post-hoc calibration approaches, such as Platt scaling, reduce calibration error and consistently outperform the prompt-based strategy. Third, due to their (strict) monotonicity, these post-hoc calibration methods are inherently limited in improving the discriminative quality of predictions, leaving AUROC at the same level. Motivated by these findings, we investigate hallucination-aware calibration (HAC), which incorporates vision-grounded hallucination detection signals as complementary inputs to refine confidence estimates. We find that leveraging these hallucination signals improves both calibration and AUROC, with the largest gains on open-ended questions. On closed-ended questions, format-specific signals such as the logit margin show more informative. Overall, our findings suggest post-hoc calibration as standard practice for medical VLM deployment over raw confidence estimates, and highlight the practical usefulness of hallucination signals to enable more reliable use of VLMs in medical VQA.

Figures & tables

Figure 2: ACE across sampling-based and verbalized confidence extraction methods and their prompting variants (Respective prompts are in Appendix C.1 .), evaluated on the pooled medical VQA benchmarks and averaged across the 7/8B models. Except for Top-K variants in the verbalized approach, prompting variants do not consistently improve calibration. Full results, including per-model and per-dataset breakdowns with ECE and AUROC, are in Appendix E.2 .

Figure 3: Calibration errors (ECE and ACE) before and after post-hoc calibration (Platt scaling) for sampling-based and verbalized confidence on closed- and open-ended questions, evaluated on the pooled datasets. Full results are in Tables 16 and 17 (Appendix F.2 ).

		Uncalibrated		Platt Scaling		Isotonic Regr.		HAC-Platt		HAC-Gate
		Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.
Closed	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.551	0.600	0.551	0.600	0.556	0.604	0.639	0.608	0.639	0.608
	InternVL3-8B	0.663	0.522	0.663	0.522	0.660	0.522	0.677	0.545	0.678	0.545
	LLaVA-NeXT-7B	0.598	0.558	0.598	0.558	0.587	0.562	0.597	0.547	0.598	0.556
Open	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.643	0.710	0.643	0.710	0.642	0.710	0.750	0.771	0.750	0.743
	InternVL3-8B	0.764	0.614	0.764	0.614	0.763	0.620	0.789	0.742	0.793	0.736

Table 2: AUROC (

\uparrow

) comparison across post-hoc calibration methods on the pooled datasets. Platt scaling preserves the same AUROC as uncalibrated scores due to its strictly monotonic transformation. Isotonic regression also preserves nearly identical AUROC due to its non-decreasing mapping. In contrast, HAC improves AUROC by incorporating hallucination signals that rerank predictions. On average across all 8 models, HAC improves AUROC by 5.3 pp over uncalibrated baselines, with notably larger gains on open-ended questions (+7.3 pp), especially for verbalized confidence (+10.1 pp). Full results are in Table 15 (Appendix F.1 ).

		Semantic Entropy	Predictive Entropy	Majority Vote	Distinct Answers	Eigen Score	UMPIRE	HAC-Platt
		Semantic Entropy	Predictive Entropy	Majority Vote	Distinct Answers	Eigen Score	UMPIRE	Samp.	Verb.
Closed	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.530	0.545	0.545	0.543	0.577	0.593	0.639	0.606
	InternVL3-8B	0.601	0.661	0.661	0.644	0.509	0.606	0.677	0.542
	LLaVA-NeXT-7B	0.606	0.598	0.598	0.531	0.549	0.555	0.597	0.541
Open	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.666	0.661	0.654	0.662	0.668	0.505	0.750	0.770
	InternVL3-8B	0.751	0.770	0.750	0.770	0.413	0.684	0.789	0.747

Table 3: AUROC (

\uparrow

) comparison of HAC against uncertainty baselines on the pooled datasets. Baseline uncertainty measures discriminate weakly on closed-ended questions, never exceeding AUROC

0.661

. In contrast, HAC attains the best overall AUROC, with the largest gains on open-ended questions (up to

+10.2

pp over the strongest baseline for Qwen3-VL-8B).

		Uncalibrated		Platt Scaling		Isotonic Regr.		HAC-Platt		HAC-Gate
		Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.	Samp.	Verb.
Closed	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.214	0.180	0.108	0.109	0.096	0.095	0.101	0.108	0.101	0.115
	InternVL3-8B	0.152	0.176	0.116	0.094	0.102	0.093	0.114	0.096	0.113	0.095
	LLaVA-NeXT-7B	0.165	0.371	0.127	0.123	0.131	0.111	0.124	0.140	0.131	0.163
Open	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.400	0.363	0.098	0.095	0.094	0.087	0.086	0.075	0.086	0.075
	InternVL3-8B	0.228	0.352	0.094	0.102	0.090	0.094	0.094	0.087	0.097	0.091

Table 4: ACE (

\downarrow

) comparison across calibration methods on the pooled dataset. Each cell shows sampling or verbalized confidence. Overall, both HAC and standard calibration approaches achieve notable calibration gains comparable to uncalibrated baselines. Full results are in Table 16 (Appendix F.2 ).

			Closed		Open
	Method	$N$	#Tok/Gen	Total	#Tok/Gen	Total
Samp.	Base	10–20	2.9 $\pm$ 3.7	29.0	7.2 $\pm$ 52.1	72.0
Samp.	CoT	10–20	146.2 $\pm$ 367.4	1462.0	144.5 $\pm$ 408.0	1445.0
Hal.	VASE	20	2.4 $\pm$ 1.5	48.0	8.1 $\pm$ 6.2	162.0
Verbalized	Vanilla	1	25.8 $\pm$ 24.1	25.8	39.6 $\pm$ 29.6	39.6
	Vanilla+CoT	1	138.1 $\pm$ 51.7	138.1	141.0 $\pm$ 52.7	141.0

Table 5: Computational cost per question.

N

: the number of required generations per question. #Tok/Gen reports the mean

\pm

std of output tokens per generation.

Appendix figures & tables25 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Dataset	# Images	Open-ended	Closed-ended	Total QA
VQA-RAD	203	200	251	451
SLAKE-EN	96	706	355	1061
VQA-Med-2019	500	436	64	500
Pooled	799	1342	670	2012

Appendix

Table 6: Statistics of the test splits of medical VQA datasets with open- and closed-ended (yes/no) questions.

Term	Probability
Almost certain	0.95
Highly likely	0.90
Very good chance	0.85
Probable	0.75
Likely	0.70
Better than even	0.60

Appendix

Table 7: Mapping from linguistic confidence terms to numerical probabilities.

Qwen3-4B	Qwen3-30B	GPT-5	Count	% of dis.
✓	✓	✗	$27$	$49.1$
✗	✓	✗	$16$	$29.1$
✗	✓	✓	$8$	$14.5$
✗	✗	✓	$2$	$3.6$
✓	✗	✗	$2$	$3.6$
Total			$55$	$100.0$

Appendix

Table 8: Inter-model disagreement patterns on the

N{=}55

cases where the three judges do not unanimously agree. ✓/✗ denote accept/reject.

Judge	TP	FP	FN	TN	Precision	Recall	F1
Qwen3-4B (ours)	$58$	$6$	$19$	$42$	$0.906$	$0.753$	$0.822$
Qwen3-30B	$74$	$12$	$3$	$36$	$0.860$	$0.961$	$0.908$
GPT-5	$43$	$2$	$34$	$46$	$0.956$	$0.558$	$0.705$

Appendix

Table 9: Human validation of the LLM judges. Judge verdicts are compared against expert labels on

N{=}125

annotated samples (all

70

unanimous-agreement cases plus all

55

inter-judge disagreements).

Figure 4: Sample size ablation for 2B models . ECE (

\downarrow

), ACE (

\downarrow

), and AUROC (

\uparrow

) as a function of

N^{\prime}

, averaged across question types. Shaded bands show std over 1,000 simulations.

Figure 5: Sample size ablation for 7/8B models . Same setup as Figure 4 .

Figure 6: Sample size ablation for 30B+ models . Same setup as Figure 4 . Note:

N^{\prime}\leq 20

since the original sample size is

N{=}20

Figure 7: ECE across different confidence extraction methods, including sampling and verbalized methods and their prompting variants. The evaluation is on the pooled medical VQA benchmarks and averaged across the 7/8B models.

Figure 8: AUROC across different confidence extraction methods, including sampling and verbalized methods and their prompting variants. The evaluation is on the pooled medical VQA benchmarks and averaged across the 7/8B models.

Type	Model	Acc. ( $\uparrow$ )	Conf.	Gap ( $\downarrow$ )	ECE ( $\downarrow$ )	ACE ( $\downarrow$ )	AUROC ( $\uparrow$ )
Closed	Qwen3-VL-2B	0.740	0.964	0.224	0.235	0.224	0.586
	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.766	0.980	0.214	0.219	0.214	0.551
	Qwen3-VL-32B	0.779	0.991	0.212	0.219	0.212	0.521
	InternVL3-2B	0.696	0.857	0.162	0.181	0.194	0.693
	InternVL3-8B	0.782	0.910	0.128	0.151	0.152	0.663
	InternVL3-38B	0.775	0.842	0.067	0.106	0.122	0.662

Appendix

Table 10: Effect of model scale on accuracy, confidence, and calibration (sampling-based confidence, micro-averaged across VQA-RAD, SLAKE-EN, and VQA-Med-2019). Overconf. Gap = Mean Conf.

-

Accuracy.

\uparrow

: higher is better,

\downarrow

: lower is better.

Type	Model	Acc. ( $\uparrow$ )	Conf.	Gap ( $\downarrow$ )	ECE ( $\downarrow$ )	ACE ( $\downarrow$ )	AUROC ( $\uparrow$ )
Closed	Qwen3-VL-2B	0.689	0.949	0.260	0.288	0.281	0.560
	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.741	0.974	0.233	0.247	0.240	0.537
	Qwen3-VL-32B	0.765	0.975	0.210	0.230	0.213	0.551
	InternVL3-2B	0.633	0.837	0.204	0.232	0.242	0.687
	InternVL3-8B	0.757	0.887	0.130	0.188	0.194	0.616
	InternVL3-38B	0.745	0.798	0.053	0.124	0.171	0.666

Appendix

Table 11: Effect of model scale on accuracy, confidence, and calibration (sampling-based confidence) on VQA-RAD. Overconf. Gap = Mean Conf.

-

Accuracy.

\uparrow

: higher is better,

\downarrow

: lower is better.

Type	Model	Acc. ( $\uparrow$ )	Conf.	Gap ( $\downarrow$ )	ECE ( $\downarrow$ )	ACE ( $\downarrow$ )	AUROC ( $\uparrow$ )
Closed	Qwen3-VL-2B	0.786	0.974	0.188	0.199	0.189	0.607
	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.786	0.984	0.198	0.206	0.198	0.560
	Qwen3-VL-32B	0.803	1.000	0.197	0.197	0.197	0.500
	InternVL3-2B	0.738	0.870	0.132	0.175	0.181	0.686
	InternVL3-8B	0.800	0.927	0.127	0.158	0.152	0.674
	InternVL3-38B	0.825	0.871	0.046	0.107	0.120	0.695

Appendix

Table 12: Effect of model scale on accuracy, confidence, and calibration (sampling-based confidence) on SLAKE-EN. Overconf. Gap = Mean Conf.

-

Accuracy.

\uparrow

: higher is better,

\downarrow

: lower is better.

Type	Model	Acc. ( $\uparrow$ )	Conf.	Gap ( $\downarrow$ )	ECE ( $\downarrow$ )	ACE ( $\downarrow$ )	AUROC ( $\uparrow$ )
Closed	Qwen3-VL-2B	0.688	0.973	0.285	0.286	0.286	0.567
	Qwen3-VL-8B	0.750	0.980	0.230	0.242	0.242	0.549
	Qwen3-VL-32B	0.703	1.000	0.297	0.296	0.296	0.500
	InternVL3-2B	0.703	0.866	0.162	0.210	0.199	0.739
	InternVL3-8B	0.781	0.905	0.124	0.163	0.179	0.762
	InternVL3-38B	0.609	0.848	0.239	0.338	0.312	0.463

Appendix

Table 13: Effect of model scale on accuracy, confidence, and calibration (sampling-based confidence) on VQA-Med-2019. Overconf. Gap = Mean Conf.

-

Accuracy.

\uparrow

: higher is better,

\downarrow

: lower is better.

		VQA-RAD						SLAKE						VQA-Med						Avg
		Closed			Open			Closed			Open			Closed			Open			Closed			Open
		ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$	ECE $\downarrow$	ACE $\downarrow$	AUC $\uparrow$
Q-2B	Samp. (Base)	0.288	0.281	0.560	0.430	0.401	0.666	0.199	0.189	0.607	0.298	0.280	0.690	0.286	0.286	0.567	0.461	0.450	0.704	0.235	0.224	0.586	0.356	0.345	0.695
	Samp. (CoT)	0.244	0.221	0.637	0.321	0.324	0.782	0.233	0.231	0.671	0.275	0.262	0.716	0.291	0.285	0.782	0.338	0.331	0.710	0.230	0.225	0.668	0.292	0.286	0.734
	Verb. (Vanilla)	0.245	0.257	0.518	0.369	0.378	0.625	0.150	0.172	0.586	0.346	0.337	0.603	0.297	0.325	0.549	0.547	0.547	0.577	0.200	0.199	0.559	0.414	0.411	0.590
	Verb. (Van.+CoT)	0.315	0.320	0.641	0.514	0.514	0.730	0.290	0.293	0.570	0.431	0.425	0.644	0.315	0.288	0.516	0.442	0.442	0.720	0.302	0.299	0.596	0.447	0.446	0.684

Appendix

Table 14: Calibration quality of different confidence prompting strategies (uncalibrated) across all models. ECE, ACE, and AUROC are reported per dataset and question type, with Avg computed on the pooled dataset. Dashes indicate degenerate cases where the model achieved 0% accuracy, making calibration metrics undefined. No single prompting variant consistently outperforms the base sampling or verbalized methods across all settings, reconfirming the finding that prompting strategies alone do not reliably improve calibration. Bold : best, underline : second best per column within each model.

Table 15: Post-hoc calibration comparison: AUROC (

\uparrow

) across calibration methods (5-fold CV). Each cell shows sampling / verbalized confidence. Bold = best per row.

Table 16: Post-hoc calibration comparison: ACE (

\downarrow

) across calibration methods (5-fold CV). Each cell shows sampling or verbalized confidence. Bold = best per row.

Table 17: Post-hoc calibration comparison: ECE (

\downarrow

) across calibration methods (5-fold CV). Each cell shows sampling / verbalized confidence. Bold = best per row.

	Sampling (Closed)			Sampling (Open)
Model	$\hat{a}$	$\hat{b}$	$\hat{d}$	$\hat{a}$	$\hat{b}$	$\hat{d}$
Qwen3-VL-2B	4.47 $\pm$ 0.48	–0.49 $\pm$ 0.08	–3.12 $\pm$ 0.45	2.51 $\pm$ 0.10	–0.49 $\pm$ 0.04	–1.81 $\pm$ 0.08
Qwen3-VL-8B	4.62 $\pm$ 0.47	–0.60 $\pm$ 0.06	–3.21 $\pm$ 0.45	3.34 $\pm$ 0.17	–0.94 $\pm$ 0.02	–2.37 $\pm$ 0.17
Qwen3-VL-32B	3.26 $\pm$ 0.63	–0.48 $\pm$ 0.05	–1.90 $\pm$ 0.62	3.51 $\pm$ 0.64	–1.00 $\pm$ 0.03	–2.44 $\pm$ 0.63
InternVL3-2B	3.40 $\pm$ 0.42	–0.48 $\pm$ 0.06	–1.78 $\pm$ 0.38	3.70 $\pm$ 0.30	–0.58 $\pm$ 0.07	–2.02 $\pm$ 0.30
InternVL3-8B	3.73 $\pm$ 0.55	–0.13 $\pm$ 0.08	–2.00 $\pm$ 0.48	2.65 $\pm$ 0.25	–0.70 $\pm$ 0.07	–1.15 $\pm$ 0.26

Appendix

Table 18: Learned HAC-Platt parameters

\hat{a}

\hat{b}

\hat{d}

for

s(c,h)=\sigma(\hat{a}\cdot c+\hat{b}\cdot h+\hat{d})

, reported as mean

\pm

std across 5-fold CV on the pooled dataset.

\hat{a}\geq 0

and

\hat{b}\leq 0

are satisfied in all cases.

Panel of Figure 9 — Figure 9: Ablation on hallucination detection metrics used in HAC-Platt. The pooled dataset is used.

Panel of Figure 10 — Figure 10: Cross-dataset ACE transfer for HAC-Platt. Each cell shows the ACE when calibration is fitted on one dataset (row) and evaluated on another (column). Bold = best per column. The “Uncal.” row shows raw confidence without calibration.

Panel of Figure 11 — Figure 11: Cross-dataset ECE transfer for HAC-Platt. Same layout as Figure 10 .

Panel of Figure 12 — Figure 12: Cross-dataset AUROC transfer for HAC-Platt. Same layout as Figure 11 .

Table 19: Auxiliary signal substitution on closed-ended questions on pooled datasets. HAC-Logit replaces VASE with the model’s internal yes/no logit margin

-|p_{\text{yes}}-p_{\text{no}}|

, keeping all other components fixed.

Panel of Figure 13 — Figure 13: AUROC ( $\uparrow$ ) versus calibration-set size $N_{\text{cal}}$ , per model (rows) and question type (columns), pooled over the three datasets. Uncalibrated and Platt share the same AUROC, so their curves coincide and are flat in $N_{\text{cal}}$ .

Panel of Figure 14 — Figure 14: Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE, $\downarrow$ ) versus calibration-set size $N_{\text{cal}}$ , per model (rows) and question type (columns), pooled over the three datasets. The dashed line is the uncalibrated baseline.

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