MedFormer-UR: Uncertainty-Routed Transformer for Medical Image Classification

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently suffer from miscalibration, manifested as overconfidence in erroneous predictions. To facilitate clinical acceptance, it is imperative that models quantify uncertainty in a manner that correlates with prediction correctness, allowing clinicians to identify unreliable outputs for further review. To address this necessity, this paper proposes a probabilistic optimization framework grounded in Bayesian deep learning. Specifically, the Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Curve (CUBC) is first explored as an intermediate operational target. Grounded in this target, a novel Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Loss (CUB-Loss) is proposed to regularize the alignment between prediction confidence and uncertainty estimates during training, imposing penalties on high-certainty errors and low-certainty correct predictions. Upon completion of training optimization, a Boundary Curve Calibration Error (BCCE) metric is further introduced to measure the degree of boundary alignment in the calibrated model. Building on this measurement, a Dual Temperature Scaling (DTS) strategy is devised to perform post-hoc refinement, further adjusting the posterior predictive distribution across different confidence-uncertainty regions. The proposed framework is validated on three distinct medical imaging tasks: automatic screening of pneumonia, diabetic retinopathy detection, and identification of skin lesions. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves uncertainty calibration across diverse modalities, maintains robust performance in data-scarce scenarios, and remains effective on severely imbalanced datasets, underscoring its potential for real clinical deployment.

Accurate uncertainty estimation is essential for machine learning systems de- ployed in high-stakes domains such as medicine. Traditional approaches primarily rely on probability outputs from trained models (point predictions), which provide no formal guarantees on prediction coverage and often require additional calibra- tion techniques to improve reliability. In contrast, conformal prediction (region prediction) offers a principled alternative by generating prediction sets with finite- sample validity guarantees, ensuring that the ground truth is contained within the set at a specified confidence level. In this study, we explore the impact of pre-training approach, dataset scale and domain on both point and region-level uncertainty quantification, by studying domain-specific vision medical foundation models vs. general domain vision foundation models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation across foundation models trained on retinal, histopathological, and Chest X-Rays data, applying various calibration techniques. Our results demonstrate that (1) pre-training on higher-quality domain-specific datasets along with self-supervised learning leads to better-calibrated point predictions than general domain pre-training, (2) stan- dard re-calibration methods alone cannot fully mitigate uncertainty discrepancies across models trained on different data sources, (3) domain-specific foundation model can lead to more efficient conformal prediction. These findings highlight the importance of careful model selection and the inte- gration of both point and region prediction to enhance the reliability and trust- worthiness of medical AI systems. Our work underscores the need for a holistic approach to uncertainty quantification in recent development of medical vision foundation model, ensuring robust and interpretable AI-driven decision-making.

Medical image segmentation supports clinical workflows by precisely delineating anatomical structures and lesions. However, medical image datasets medical image datasets suffer from acquisition noise and annotation ambiguity, causing pervasive data uncertainty that substantially undermines model robustness. Existing research focuses primarily on model architectural improvements and predictive reliability estimation, while systematic exploration of the intrinsic data uncertainty remains insufficient. To address this gap, this work proposes leveraging the universal representation capabilities of visual foundation models to estimate inherent data uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze the feature diversity of the model's decoded representations and quantify their singular value energy to define the semantic perception scale for each class, thereby measuring sample difficulty and aleatoric uncertainty. Based on this foundation, we design two uncertainty-driven application strategies: (1) the aleatoric uncertainty-aware data filtering mechanism to eliminate potentially noisy samples and enhance model learning quality; (2) the dynamic uncertainty-aware optimization strategy that adaptively adjusts class-specific loss weights during training based on the semantic perception scale, combined with a label denoising mechanism to improve training stability. Experimental results on five public datasets encompassing CT and MRI modalities and involving multi-organ and tumor segmentation tasks demonstrate that our method achieves significant and robust performance improvements across various mainstream network architectures, revealing the broad application potential of aleatoric uncertainty in medical image understanding and segmentation tasks.