Risk-Calibrated Learning: Minimizing Fatal Errors in Medical AI

To ensure safe clinical integration, deep learning models must provide more than just high accuracy; they require dependable uncertainty quantification. While current Medical Vision Transformers perform well, they frequently struggle with overconfident predictions and a lack of transparency, issues that are magnified by the noisy and imbalanced nature of clinical data. To address this, we enhanced the modified Medical Transformer (MedFormer) that incorporates prototype-based learning and uncertainty-guided routing, by utilizing a Dirichlet distribution for per-token evidential uncertainty, our framework can quantify and localize ambiguity in real-time. This uncertainty is not just an output but an active participant in the training process, filtering out unreliable feature updates. Furthermore, the use of class-specific prototypes ensures the embedding space remains structured, allowing for decisions based on visual similarity. Testing across four modalities (mammography, ultrasound, MRI, and histopathology) confirms that our approach significantly enhances model calibration, reducing expected calibration error (ECE) by up to 35%, and improves selective prediction, even when accuracy gains are modest.

Noisy labels are a pervasive challenge in medical image classification, where annotation errors arise from inter-observer variability and diagnostic ambiguity. Although several noise-robust learning methods have been proposed, their evaluation predominantly relies on accuracy-oriented metrics, overlooking the clinical implications of asymmetric error costs. In medical diagnosis, a false negative (missed disease) carries substantially higher consequences than a false positive (false alarm), as delayed treatment can directly impact patient outcomes. In this work, we investigate whether noise-robust training methods preserve clinical safety under label noise. We conduct a systematic risk-aware evaluation of the state-of-the-art noise-robust methods Coteaching, DivideMix, UNICON, and a GMM-based filtering approach on binarized DermaMNIST and PathMNIST datasets under clean and label noise rates of 20%, and 40%. Beyond balanced accuracy, we adopt a cost-sensitive Global Risk formulation that explicitly penalizes false negatives. Our analysis reveals that the robustness of state-of-the-art methods does not guarantee clinical safety. Furthermore, we demonstrate that integrating cost-sensitive optimization into noise-robust training significantly reduces clinical risk, while mantaining model utility. These findings demonstrate that noise-robust learning must be evaluated through a clinical risk lens, and that combining robust training with cost-sensitive optimization can meaningfully reduce risk in noisy-label medical imaging scenarios.

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently suffer from miscalibration, manifested as overconfidence in erroneous predictions. To facilitate clinical acceptance, it is imperative that models quantify uncertainty in a manner that correlates with prediction correctness, allowing clinicians to identify unreliable outputs for further review. To address this necessity, this paper proposes a probabilistic optimization framework grounded in Bayesian deep learning. Specifically, the Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Curve (CUBC) is first explored as an intermediate operational target. Grounded in this target, a novel Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Loss (CUB-Loss) is proposed to regularize the alignment between prediction confidence and uncertainty estimates during training, imposing penalties on high-certainty errors and low-certainty correct predictions. Upon completion of training optimization, a Boundary Curve Calibration Error (BCCE) metric is further introduced to measure the degree of boundary alignment in the calibrated model. Building on this measurement, a Dual Temperature Scaling (DTS) strategy is devised to perform post-hoc refinement, further adjusting the posterior predictive distribution across different confidence-uncertainty regions. The proposed framework is validated on three distinct medical imaging tasks: automatic screening of pneumonia, diabetic retinopathy detection, and identification of skin lesions. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves uncertainty calibration across diverse modalities, maintains robust performance in data-scarce scenarios, and remains effective on severely imbalanced datasets, underscoring its potential for real clinical deployment.