Shapley Regression for Rare Disease Diagnosis Support: a case study on APDS

Rare disease diagnosis depends on expert reasoning that is scarce and difficult to transfer. Large language models rank the correct disease first in only 35.4% of benchmark cases and often rely on learned phenotype-disease associations rather than reusable diagnostic reasoning strategies. We developed liteOdyssey through Policy Iteration with Human Feedback, a process in which model failures and expert corrections are iteratively consolidated into a clinician-gated, natural-language policy executed by a language model. Across 1,243 public benchmark cases spanning 722 rare diseases, liteOdyssey ranked the correct disease first in 59.3% of cases versus 26.5% without the policy, with comparable gains in cases involving diseases excluded from policy development. The same policy transferred across model families and sizes without retraining. Adaptation of the policy to the Undiagnosed Diseases Network (UDN) improved diagnostic accuracy among 515 UDN patients, with gains confirmed by blinded physician adjudication. These results show that expert reasoning can be externalized into an inspectable and revisable natural-language policy that generalizes across rare diseases, transfers across model backbones, and adapts to a real-world patient cohort.

More than 300 million people worldwide are affected by one of over 7,000 known rare diseases, yet diagnosis remains difficult because patients initially present with incomplete and heterogeneous phenotypes. We present HPOQuest, a training-free framework for sequential phenotype acquisition in rare-disease diagnosis. Starting from a small set of observed patient phenotypes, HPOQuest maintains a probabilistic disease ranking and iteratively selects informative follow-up questions to support clinicians during patient assessment. Confirmed phenotypes update the disease ranking, while all responses update the candidate question set. Across four benchmark cohorts, HPOQuest substantially improves diagnosis from sparse initial phenotypes, with gains of up to 30% points at Recall@1 and 45% points at Recall@5. These results demonstrate that sequential phenotype acquisition can substantially improve rare-disease diagnosis from limited initial clinical evidence.

Biological systems are governed by structured molecular interactions, where pathways, regulatory circuits, and functional gene relationships shape cellular behavior and disease progression. Much of this knowledge is naturally represented as graphs. However, most biomedical AI models cannot directly use graph-encoded biological knowledge and instead require compressed low-dimensional representations, which can lose important structure and reduce performance, especially in limited-sample clinical studies. Here, we introduce Graph-in-Graph (GiG), a knowledge graph-modulated deep learning framework for data-efficient clinical prediction. GiG represents each patient as a standalone modular graph, in which curated biological knowledge graphs define edges and patient-specific measurements, such as gene expression, define node features. This design allows multiple biological knowledge graphs to be integrated while preserving gene-gene interactions and pathway topology during patient-level representation learning. Across cohorts comprising nearly 9,700 patients and five clinical tasks, including liquid biopsy cancer detection, prostate cancer diagnosis, and 32-class pan-cancer classification, GiG consistently outperforms traditional and state-of-the-art methods, with the largest gains in limited-sample settings. On the challenging prostate cancer diagnosis task, GiG improves macro-F1 by up to 49 percentage points relative to competing methods. Control experiments replacing real pathway graphs with random topologies confirm that these gains arise from biologically grounded knowledge graph structure rather than graph modeling alone. These findings show that knowledge graph-modulated deep learning can improve robustness, interpretability, and sample efficiency in clinical data analysis, and provide a principled framework for integrating biological knowledge graphs into predictive modeling.