Belief-Space Residual Risk for Automated Driving under Localization Uncertainty

Safe motion planning in automated driving requires anticipating evolving traffic risks and deciding when to revise the current planned trajectory. We introduce RiskWorld, a risk-aware world modeling framework for shared occupancy forecasting and selective trajectory replacement. Spatial risk fields and temporal actor context are fused with visual bird's-eye-view features. Flow-guided evolution transports occupancy and scene features, while signed residuals correct occupancy after transport. One forecast is generated per planning step and reused across candidates. Each candidate is compared with a current-state persistence reference, yielding a nonnegative collision-score correction. The trajectory selected by current-world evaluation serves as the planning anchor and is replaced only when additional predicted risk triggers intervention and an alternative satisfies component-wise constraints on predicted risk and trajectory error. Candidate geometries remain unchanged. We evaluate RiskWorld for open-loop planning on nuScenes using camera features, annotation-derived current and historical actor states, and dataset-provided map context. RiskWorld achieves the lowest collision rate at a long evaluation horizon of 3 s, and the second-best average L2 error among various state-of-the-art baselines, while running at 11.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090 with 90.81 M parameters. Within-setting ablations show that RiskWorld achieves lower collision rates than the current-state rescoring baseline, while forecast reuse enables additional candidates to be evaluated at low marginal computational cost.

Many safety-critical control systems operate under latent uncertainty that sensors cannot resolve at decision time. Such uncertainty, arising from unknown physical properties, disturbances, or unobserved geometry, affects dynamics, task feasibility, and safety margins. Standard methods optimize expected performance and offer limited protection against rare but severe outcomes, while robust formulations treat uncertainty conservatively without exploiting its probabilistic structure. We consider systems with measured state and an unknown, time-invariant parameter represented by a belief distribution. We propose a risk-sensitive belief-space Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) controller that plans under this belief, regularizes performance using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and imposes a CVaR constraint on a trajectory safety margin over the horizon. For the exact risk-constrained formulation underlying this controller, we establish three properties: (1) the CVaR constraint implies a probabilistic safety guarantee, (2) the controller recovers the risk-neutral optimum as the objective risk weight tends to zero, and (3) a union-bound argument extends the per-horizon guarantee to cumulative safety over repeated solves. In contact-rich MuJoCo simulations of vision-guided dexterous stowing, where a manipulator inserts a grasped object into an occupied slot with pose uncertainty exceeding prescribed lateral clearance requirements, our method achieves 82% success with zero contact violations at high risk aversion, compared with 55% and 50% for a risk-neutral configuration and a chance-constrained baseline, both of which incur nonzero exterior contact forces. Project page: https://clintonenwerem.com/belief-cvar-mppi/.

Collaborative perception serves as a pivotal solution to enhance the perception capability of individual agents in autonomous driving, where a core challenge lies in seeking reliable evidence to quantify and weight the contribution of each participating agent. Existing methods typically rely on a confidence map, which is co-trained with the detection head, but it is inherently correlated with the detection results and thus fails to provide unbiased physical evidence. Furthermore, how to deeply integrate evidence into the cooperative fusion process remains an open question. To address these issues, this paper first proposes an uncertainty map, a physically grounded and unambiguous metric for evaluating perception quality. This map is directly supervised by real-time sensor signals, i.e., LiDAR point density, ensuring decoupling from detection noise and thereby providing physical scenario-aware evidence for weighting agent contribution. Based on this map, we develop the Uncertainty-Enhanced Collaborative Perception (UECP) framework, centered on the Uncertainty-Aware Pyramid Fusion (UAPF) module. UAPF uses a coarse-to-fine strategy, with two key components: Uncertainty-Weighted Downsampling (UWD) for high-fidelity feature preservation, and Uncertainty-Guided Residual Fusion (UGRF) to reinforce ego features, suppressing noise and ensuring robust fusion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show UECP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in effectiveness and robustness by embedding the uncertainty map into fusion. Code will be publicly available.