ADAPT: A Self-Calibrating Proactive Autoscaler for Container Orchestration

Online time-series forecasters receive labels only after horizon-dependent delays, while every adaptation step spends limited compute. We study when an online learner should update, not how to adapt at every opportunity, and introduce ADOWIP: a residual-adapter framework with sealed delay queues, exact budget accounting, and auditable update telemetry. Its main scheduler is an observed decision-loss priority gate that updates only after feedback is revealed, when downstream loss, optionally penalized by prediction MSE, exceeds a calibrated empirical quantile and budget remains. We prove hard-budget feasibility, projected-OGD regret for a convex linear accepted-update subproblem, and stability plus conditional finite-sample gate-selection statements. On public ETT capacity-planning tasks, a frozen calibration/evaluation split selects a gate that lowers held-out decision loss against always, fixed-period, and drift-triggered exact-update baselines under matched compute. Secondary threshold/load-index ETT suites are mixed: 33 of 41 selected contrasts clear the stricter cross-artifact Holm family, and the 8 nonpassing rows are explicitly excluded from primary claims. The same protocol improves an external UCI Bike capacity proxy with 20/0 held-out wins, and a fixed gate passes three full-year Capital Bikeshare station-rebalancing contrasts. Probe-based and finance experiments remain negative, delimiting the current scope of decision-prioritized adaptation.

Proactive task-oriented agents must autonomously anticipate user needs, identify actionable opportunities, and trigger software actions at appropriate moments - fundamentally shifting from reactive systems that await explicit instructions. However, existing approaches lack generalizable end-to-end solutions for measuring and optimizing such anticipatory behaviors. This paper introduces ProActor, a unified framework for conversational task scheduling that integrates: (1) a domain-agnostic automated annotation methodology that enables scalable proactiveness reinforcement learning (RL) by generating full opportunity time windows instead of rigid point labels, (2) systematic proactiveness metrics capturing both timing quality and reference action alignment, and (3) RL optimization using GRPO with various reward designs. Our insight is that RULER-based rewards with proactiveness rubrics are crucial for improving timing quality, and that proactiveness optimization enabled by stage-aware composite rewards is key to balancing timing quality and reference action alignment. Timing-aware RL requires extensive exploration, demanding efficient infrastructure. We develop ART-F, an adaptive framework combining request-adaptive inference clusters with DDP-based training on single-node multi-GPU systems, enabling LoRA training of 4-bit Qwen2.5-14B-ProActor-Q4 with 4-8x speedups. Experiments on two newly auto-annotated datasets demonstrate significant improvements in proactive timing while maintaining action consistency comparable to state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines. Ablations validate the effectiveness of distinct composite reward variations.

Cloud virtual machines are often overprovisioned, creating avoidable cost and operational inefficiency. We present CLOUDADV, an interactive engineer-facing advisory system for cloud instance sizing under workload drift. The system combines zero-shot time-series forecasting with bounded recommendation generation across day-, week-, and month-scale planning horizons. For each query, CLOUDADV constructs a structured decision context from historical utilization, forecast summaries, current VM metadata, candidate instance options, pricing, and explicit sizing heuristics. A higher-capacity LLM is used offline to generate reference recommendations, while a smaller production model is evaluated on the same prompts to assess deployment-time alignment under latency and cost constraints. Evaluation prioritizes downstream recommendation quality using simulated Azure cost savings and ex-post exceedance, with rolling-origin forecast accuracy reported as a secondary diagnostic against classical and supervised baselines. In a case study of seven production VMs, the reference recommendations reduce simulated monthly cost from about $1,503 to $708, yielding $795/month in savings (52.9%) under conservative heuristic constraints, while the highest observed exceedance rate among downgraded cases is 1.5%. Although Chronos-2 does not minimize every forecasting metric, it often induces recommendation patterns similar to those of a supervised per-VM baseline. These results suggest that zero-shot foundation models can support decision-aligned provisioning in non-stationary cloud environments while reducing the operational burden of repeated per-tenant retraining, revalidation, and redeployment.