Pointwise Metrics Mislead: An Evaluation Protocol for Multimodal Inverse Problems

Generative models are increasingly used to solve scientific inverse problems, but existing evaluations still focus primarily on whether a method can produce a single plausible reconstruction. This is insufficient for ill-posed problems, where multiple solutions may be consistent with the same sparse or noisy observations. In these settings, a method can achieve strong pointwise accuracy while still failing to capture the true posterior through mode collapse, overconfident uncertainty, or averaging incompatible solutions. We introduce PosteriorBench, a benchmark for evaluating the distributional accuracy of generative inverse solvers. PosteriorBench evaluates four physics-based inverse problems: Darcy flow inversion, Poisson source recovery, carbon capture and storage, and light transport material inference. For each task, we construct high-fidelity reference posteriors using computationally heavy but established procedures such as rejection sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo, enabling direct assessment of whether solvers recover the full set of solutions rather than the single best sample. We pair these references with a five-metric posterior evaluation suite: posterior-mean error, posterior-standard-deviation error, maximum mean discrepancy, sliced Wasserstein distance, and radially averaged power-spectrum error. These metrics assess pointwise accuracy, marginal uncertainty, distributional alignment, and global frequency fidelity. The benchmark spans sparse sensing, low-resolution observations, nonlinear forward models, varying noise levels, and multimodal priors, with a unified pipeline for distribution matching and uncertainty quantification. Our experiments reveal substantial distribution-matching gaps across current solvers, while showing that neural operators improve resolution robustness, and guidance weights and generation noise are key to posterior-variance calibration.

Prediction intervals for multi-modal regression with tabular variables, text, images, or other input sources are difficult to calibrate when those sources disagree or one is missing. A single global quantile averages these regimes together instead of calibrating to the modality pattern observed at test time. We address this through a modality-aware conformal calibration layer. The layer trains or reuses one predictor per modality, computes a disagreement score from their predictions, and uses that score in split conformal calibration under a strict split protocol. We use the score in two complementary ways. First, a continuous disagreement-scaled method reallocates interval width across examples while preserving the usual marginal split-conformal guarantee. Second, a Mondrian (stratified) method calibrates within groups defined by disagreement or modality availability fixed before calibration, giving group guarantees under joint exchangeability of the calibration and test examples. Across four multi-modal datasets, the disagreement-scaled layer matches or improves the marginal conformal baseline in 59 of 60 paired runs for interval continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and in 52 of 60 for interval width, while keeping empirical coverage near the 95% target. In stress tests with missing modalities, mask-matched recalibration recovers up to 19.5 percentage points of coverage in the hardest fixed-mask regime. The result is a simple, model-agnostic reliability layer for multi-modal regression systems. A project page is available at https://unco3892.github.io/modality-aware-conformal.

Existing score-based methods for inverse problems often resort to approximate minimization of the KL divergence between the inversion distribution and the Bayesian posterior. Such an approximation leads to severe mode collapse and unreliable uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we propose Principled Posterior Matching (PPM), a framework that returns to the fundamentals of variational inference, rather than using tricky approximations. Instead of relying on heuristic approximations, we rigorously formulate the exact optimization of the KL divergence via the integration of Fisher divergence. We derive a tractable, equivalent gradient form of this integral, enabling precise optimization without the biases introduced by prior approximations. Our analysis clearly reveals that the mode collapse in previous methods stems directly from this approximation gap. Supported by our theoretical solution, PPM unifies two complementary paradigms: (1) In variational inference, PPM adopts mass-covering divergences that significantly improve the inversion diversity and uncertainty quantification; (2) In amortized inference, it enables the training of an efficient reconstruction network for rapid, single-step reconstruction. Furthermore, our formulation naturally extends to a broader family of divergence measures by generalizing the integral of the Fisher divergence. We validate PPM across challenging computational imaging tasks, including inpainting, super-resolution fluorescent microscopy, and radio interferometric black-hole imaging. In all experiments, PPM achieves superior reconstruction fidelity, faithful multimodal posterior recovery, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, establishing a robust framework for scientific imaging.