Language-model agents increasingly emit uncertainty signals throughout a trajectory, but existing agentic UQ evaluations often conflate ranking usefulness with probabilistic truthfulness. AUROC, AUPRC, risk-coverage, Trajectory ECE, and scalarized trajectory scores evaluate discrimination, binwise calibration, or collapsed summaries, but do not strictly elicit the full prefix-conditioned success-probability trace qt=Pπ(Y=1∣Ht). Building on prequential proper scoring, we introduce the Trajectory Proper Score (TPS), a predictor-agnostic family of strictly proper trajectory-level scoring rules for any per-step uncertainty signal calibrated into a probability of eventual success. We prove that TPS strictly elicits the success-probability process under complete observation, within the chosen score family and weight schedule. We extend the construction to administratively censored trajectories by projecting the complete-data score onto the observable stopped prefix, yielding an exact qZ-weighted reduced score and a tractable approximation when qZ is unestimated. We further show that common trajectory evaluators target weaker objects than the full prefix-conditioned probability process: Trajectory ECE is resolution-blind, while scalarized Trajectory Brier elicits only the collapsed scalar, not the full trace. Experiments on StrategyQA, Tau2-Bench, HotpotQA, and WebShop show that these theoretical distinctions are operationally visible: probability recalibration can substantially change TPS while leaving rank metrics nearly unchanged, and the tractable censored approximation can change the verdict relative to complete-only evaluation.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for language models are typically evaluated on single-turn outputs, where uncertainty is attached to one generated answer. For LLM agents, however, the unit of observation is an interactive trajectory, where the model can ask clarifying questions, call tools, update state, and make intermediate decisions whose errors propagate to the final outcome. We study whether three common families of single-turn UQ methods transfer to this setting. Across five LLMs and four multi-turn tool-use datasets from BFCL-v4 and τ2-bench, we evaluate white-box scorers based on action-token probabilities, black-box consistency scorers based on resampled trajectories, and reflexive scorers based on model self-assessment of the trajectory. We find that transfer is often useful but uneven. Token-probability scores are highly sensitive to the choice of aggregator used across turns, reflexive scores provide the strongest low-cost baseline in most evaluated settings, and black-box self-consistency is often the strongest UQ family, with trajectory-equivalence and action-set consistency typically ranking highest among its variants. These results suggest that UQ methods developed for single generations should be revalidated at the trajectory level, with careful attention to the consistency measurement, aggregator choice, and computational budget.
Uncertainty estimates in machine learning are typically evaluated using generic metrics such as the negative log-likelihood and expected calibration error, yet good performance on such metrics does not necessarily imply high utility in downstream decisions. We introduce decision-alignment, a criterion that reveals which evaluation metrics meaningfully align with downstream utilities. Applying this framework, we show that many widely used uncertainty metrics are either misaligned with common decision problems or encode pathological prior beliefs about the downstream task. We then propose prior-weighted utility metrics, a special class of proper scoring rules that provides decision-aligned uncertainty evaluation. Across benchmark experiments and real-world case studies, our metrics consistently align with realized decision utility, while conventional metrics do not. Our results surface flaws in the current UQ evaluation protocol and offer a principled extension of existing metrics toward decision-relevant UQ evaluation.
Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller +1
When evaluator-derived step rewards are pooled or compared across scoring channels, their sign is treated as transportable. Yet the same frozen transition can change sign with the scoring channel. Process rewards vary agent states, while evaluator audits vary scoring configurations; neither first difference isolates their interaction. We define Agent Step Value (ASV) as channel-indexed target-margin gain and identify the missing state-by-channel interaction by replaying complete faces. Of 1,100 PubMed open question-answering transitions, 1,004 were complete across four cyclic layouts. Their mean update is positive under direct scoring (+0.163 [0.102, 0.218]) and negative with an externally generated view (-0.160 [-0.244, -0.079]), giving an interaction of -0.323 [-0.418, -0.232]. Across paired transitions, 507/1,004 cross zero in one direction or the other. Matched templates isolate a generated-minus-quote interaction of -1.121 [-1.534, -0.703]. Its direction remains negative after the readout and evaluator-stack changes, and quote yields a higher paired area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for stored success at all three bridge vertices. Because the two views preserve the same task information conditional on the retained state, a representation-invariance null predicts equal responses and success rankings across them. ASV provides a transport audit for evaluator-derived step measurements; causal actor credit lies outside its estimand.