Organizations: Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and the Institute for Advanced Computing, Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA · Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi 127788, United Arab Emirates · CentraleSupelec, University Paris Saclay, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette, France · Queen Square Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK · Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health at School of Psychological Sciences and Monash Biomedical Imaging, Monash University, Clayton, Australia · CIFAR Global Scholars Program, Toronto, Canada
In this paper, a novel test-time scaling law for physical artificial intelligence (AI) agents is introduced. This scaling law enables physical AI agents to reason with their world models to generalize in unforeseen scenarios at test time. The derived scaling law is grounded in the first principle of active inference, which equips agents with the general objective to survive in the real world, under which their specific task objectives are subsumed. Active inference achieves this by providing the reasoning to resolve prediction errors that arise when the agent encounters unforeseen situations outside its training distribution, enabling generalization in non-stationary environments. The proposed scaling law captures this by dynamically updating the agent's policy with this reasoning at test time. This policy update is modeled as a soft Bayesian inference process in which beliefs about the policy are updated using the reasoning that reduces expected prediction errors under allowable policies as a likelihood. The resulting posterior policy admits a biological interpretation, recovering the scaling mechanism that engages the brain's basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex at test time. To solve this analytically intractable problem, a variational inference solution minimizing free energy bounds is developed. This solution extends to enable learning beyond training by reinforcing new instances, resolved at test time, in both the policy and world model. Unlike existing scaling laws constrained by model size and training data, the derived solution scales with the continuous real-world experience of a physical AI agent. Simulation results on an autonomous driving task demonstrate that the proposed solution outperforms model-free Q-learning and model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning, achieving robust generalization to unforeseen scenarios while improving inference efficiency by over 36%.
Generalizable agents should adapt to diverse tasks and unseen environments beyond their training distribution. This position paper argues that such generalization requires environment scaling: expanding the distribution of executable rule-sets that agents interact with, rather than only increasing trajectories or tasks within fixed benchmarks. Current scaling practices largely focus on collecting more experience or broader task sets under fixed interaction rules, leaving agents brittle when underlying interfaces, dynamics, observations, or feedback signals change. The core challenge is therefore a world-level distribution shift: agents need systematic exposure to environments with meaningfully different executable rule-sets. To clarify this challenge, we propose a unified taxonomy that separates trajectory scaling, task scaling, and environment scaling by their primary deliverables and by what changes in the executable rule-set. Building on this taxonomy, we synthesize construction paradigms for scalable environments, contrasting programmatic generators that prioritize controllability and verifiability with generative world models that offer broader coverage and open-endedness. We further outline how environment scaling can be coupled with stateful learning mechanisms, emphasizing learned update rules for cross-environment adaptation. We conclude by discussing alternative perspectives and argue that scalable environments provide the essential substrate for measurable and controllable progress toward robust general agents.
Active inference, a neurally-inspired model for inferring actions based on the free energy principle (FEP), has been proposed as a unifying framework for understanding perception, action, and learning in the brain. Active inference has previously been used to model ecologically important tasks such as navigation and planning, but scaling it to solve complex large-scale problems in real-world environments has remained a challenge. Inspired by the existence of multi-scale hierarchical representations in the brain, we propose a model for planning of actions based on hierarchical active inference. Our approach combines a hierarchical model of the environment with successor representations for efficient planning. We present results demonstrating (1) how lower-level successor representations can be used to learn higher-level abstract states, (2) how planning based on active inference at the lower-level can be used to bootstrap and learn higher-level abstract actions, and (3) how these learned higher-level abstract states and actions can facilitate efficient planning. We illustrate the performance of the approach on several planning and reinforcement learning (RL) problems including a variant of the well-known four rooms task, a key-based navigation task, a partially observable planning problem, the Mountain Car problem, and PointMaze, a family of navigation tasks with continuous state and action spaces. Our results represent, to our knowledge, the first application of learned hierarchical state and action abstractions to active inference in FEP-based theories of brain function.
Pretraining scaling laws reveal that model capability improves predictably with data and compute. But learning from real world environments after deployment remains far less understood. Analyzing roughly 38,000 hours of agent interaction with the environment across 134 real world tasks, we find, to the best of our knowledge, the first evidence that overall performance during environment learning follows a log-sigmoid scaling law with remarkably high precision, reaching R^2 = 0.998. Across model generations, we also find that agent learning speed roughly doubles every three months. This discovery stems from EdgeBench, a suite of 134 real world tasks with ultra-long horizons, spanning scientific discovery, software engineering, combinatorial optimization, professional knowledge work, formal mathematics, and interactive games. Each task sustains at least 12 hours of continuous agent operation under rich, multilevel feedback, and is built through substantial expert effort. We publicly release 51 tasks and our full evaluation framework to accelerate the study of how agents learn from real world experience.