physics.data-anJun 22, 2026

Where Is My Physics Wrong? Localized and Identifiable Discovery of Model Discrepancy

Authors: Yifan Wang

Organizations: Department of Mechanical Engineering, McGill University, QC, H3A 2T7, Canada

Abstract

Hybrid models combine trusted physics with data-driven correction, but a physical model is rarely wrong everywhere or in the same way. The key diagnostic question is local: where does the model fail, what missing mechanism explains the failure, and is the evidence statistically real? Existing sparse-discovery and discrepancy-learning methods usually fit one global correction, which can spread a local error into clean regimes, bias trusted physical parameters, and provide no calibrated significance for selected terms. We introduce LISDD, Localized, Identifiable Sparse Discovery of Discrepancy, a framework that localizes model error to an operating regime, identifies a sparse symbolic form for the missing mechanism, and certifies the discovery with an exact finite-sample test. LISDD fits the known physics on an automatically detected clean regime, flags discrepant regions with a calibrated residual-energy statistic, selects the local missing term by exhaustive holdout over a candidate library, and confirms significance with a sample-split FF-test. A false-discovery-rate extension handles multiple discrepant regions with different missing mechanisms. In controlled experiments, LISDD keeps physical-parameter bias at 0.002 versus 0.43 for global-discrepancy and black-box baselines, raises localization F1F_1 from 0.44 to 0.80, recovers the correct symbolic form with probability one, attains exact detection, and controls the multi-region false-discovery rate while recovering every planted mechanism. The result is a calibrated diagnostic tool for grey-box building-energy models when a fixed physical law silently breaks in one operating regime.

Explore similar work

Jun 19, 2026stat.ML

Orthogonal Discrepancy Kernels for Learning with Partial Physics

We introduce a semi-parametric framework for nonlinear system identification, which decouples discrepancy functions from physics-based components. Orthogonal Gaussian process regression balances sparse parameter selection (the white box) with discrepancy learning (the black box) to produce interpretable models from incomplete physics.
Swapnil Manna, Timothy J. Rogers, Lawrence Bull
Jun 30, 2026cs.LG

Testing Frontier Large Language Models' Physics Literacy in Parallel Physical Worlds

Current large-language-model (LLM) physics benchmarks are usually scored by answer accuracy, which cannot distinguish genuine reasoning from recall of familiar problem patterns and reveals little about where a model's reasoning breaks down. We introduce an auditable four-stage diagnostic that evaluates whether an LLM can reason inside an unfamiliar physics framework through induction, formulation, prediction, and review. The diagnostic combines locked pre-registrations, fresh sessions between stages, dual-LLM judging, and a human-audit pathway, and we apply it to three parallel physics worlds: a single-equation counterfactual world (F=mvF=mv), a historical framework (Aristotelian mechanics), and a four-domain counterfactual world (Decay World). Across Claude Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5, and Gemini 3.1 Pro, the three worlds yield composite PASS rates are 6/15, 6/15, and 0/15 respectively (content \land structural for F=mvF=mv and Aristotelian, content axis only for Decay World where the structural axis is out of scope). The most pointed empirical pattern is a qualitative-versus-quantitative asymmetry: in Decay World, models almost never predict the wrong direction of change, but frequently compute the wrong ratio by slipping back to standard-physics relations. The protocol also surfaces two methodology findings: LLM-judge reliability does not transfer across frameworks, and Stage 4 self-review is weak in every framework, with the model's own review wrongly reporting no earlier error in at least two-thirds of the trials that actually contained one. We release the full prompts, responses, verdicts, and audit records.
Dong Zhang
May 13, 2026cs.LG

Discovery of Hidden Miscalibration Regimes

Calibration is commonly evaluated by comparing model confidence with its empirical correctness, implicitly treating reliability as a function of the confidence score alone. However, this view can hide substantial structure: models may be systematically overconfident on some kinds of inputs and underconfident on others, causing global reliability diagnostics to obscure localised calibration failures. To address this, we formulate the problem of discovering hidden miscalibration regimes without assuming access to predefined data slices. We define the corresponding miscalibration field and propose a diagnostic framework for estimating it. Our approach learns a calibration-aware representation of the input space and estimates signed local miscalibration by kernel smoothing in the learned geometry. Across four real-world LLM benchmarks and twelve LLMs, we find that input-dependent calibration heterogeneity is prevalent. We further show that the discovered fields are actionable: they support local confidence correction and reduce calibration error in systematically miscalibrated regions where confidence-based methods such as isotonic regression and temperature scaling are less effective.
Katarzyna Kobalczyk, Mihaela van der Schaar