Counterfactual analysis is widely used to study evidence use in vision-language models, but its diagnostic value is limited on well-posed tasks: when several cues independently support the same answer, removing one may not change the prediction. We propose monocular metric object-size estimation as an ill-posed diagnostic setting for evidence selection: because physical size cannot be determined from a single uncalibrated image, models must rely on imperfect cues category priors, target appearance, local context, apparent image size, and scene geometry. We assemble Metric VQA (10,813 dimension queries from Objectron and 331 tape-measured in-the-wild scenes) and evaluate 12 open-weight VLMs (3--397,B parameters) with counterfactual analysis decomposing six visual and language evidence channels. Even the largest VLMs tested (Qwen3-VL-235B, Qwen3.5-397B, InternVL3.5-241B) trail a text-only frontier LLM on the in-the-wild split. The diagnostic analysis shows: target identity is the most load-bearing cue, target pixels and local context help only some models, apparent size shifts predictions without a directional readout, and global scene geometry is largely unused. We analyze LoRA fine-tuning as an actionable intervention specific to metric estimation: while the task is learnable, the models do not learn to leverage scene geometry.
Vision-Language Models (VLMs) should answer from concrete image evidence rather than language priors, dataset shortcuts, or irrelevant visual context. Existing perception-aware post-training methods encourage image use through global perturbations or attention proxies, but they do not test whether a sampled answer causally depends on the local evidence that supports it. We propose Counterfactual Evidence Disentanglement (CED), a training-time evidence audit for VLM grounding. For each response, CED neutralizes an object-centric Evidence Region and compares the resulting support drop against matched non-evidence Regions. We combine this signal with answer correctness inside GRPO, rewarding correct answers that rely on the evidence path rather than shortcut or nuisance paths. CED uses weak object-level proposals, requires no question-specific evidence annotations, and adds no inference-time overhead. Across nine public benchmarks and four backbones, CED outperforms prior RL-based post-training methods, with targeted analyses verifying its object-centric signal.
Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at multimodal reasoning, yet it remains unclear whether their answers are grounded in visual evidence or driven by learned language and world priors. Counting provides a precise testbed: when visual evidence conflicts with canonical object knowledge, a model must rely on the image rather than a prototypical count. We introduce CounterCount, a diagnostic framework for counterfactual counting in VLMs, consisting of paired factual and counterfactual images with edited count-relevant attributes, verified answers, and localized evidence annotations. Evaluating recent VLMs, we find strong performance on factual images but consistent degradation under counterfactual attribute changes, indicating reliance on object-level priors even when contradictory visual evidence is present. Using localized annotations, we show that these failures are not solely due to missing or ambiguous visual evidence, but to models underweighting attention to count-relevant visual tokens. We introduce a unified inference-time attention modulation strategy that reweights selected visual tokens, improving counterfactual counting accuracy by up to 8% across multiple VLMs. Overall, CounterCount exposes prior-driven counting failures and provides diagnostic insights for designing future VLMs.
Reem Alzahrani, Hassan Alshanqiti, Bushra Bin Hemid +3
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) fail at fine-grained visual questions less because they cannot reason than because they never see the evidence: high-resolution images are downsampled before encoding, so the model answers from linguistic priors. The standard remedies are expensive: annotated answers (SFT), hand-engineered verifiers (RLVR), or a large external teacher (on-policy distillation). We ask whether the visual evidence itself can supply the signal for free. We formalize the contrastive evidence gap, the per-token log-likelihood ratio that a model assigns to its own output when conditioned on a question-relevant region versus an irrelevant one, and study it across Qwen2.5-VL-7B, Qwen3-VL-8B, and Qwen3-VL-30B-A3B on V*Bench. Our main positive result is training-free: selecting the candidate crop under which the model's answer distribution is most peaked, using a single-view, label-free criterion, discovers the answer-bearing region with no bounding boxes, training, or labels. It localizes the target 4.4 to 5.1 times better than chance and raises fine-grained accuracy from 70 percent to 85 percent at inference. We further show that the gap is complementary to the model's own confidence. Combining them predicts correctness better than either alone, with AUC up to 0.99, and flags confidently wrong answers, with AUC ranging from 0.97 to 1.00 within the high-confidence subset. All effects concentrate on perception-bottleneck questions and vanish on a global-context control. Finally, we report an honest negative result: converting the same signal into a training method, gated self-distillation (SEG-Distill), does not outperform the base model at pilot scale across three gate designs, while more aggressive gating degrades accuracy. The signal is real, but converting it into training gains remains an open problem.